1. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 1 Global Earth-system Modelling using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Progress so far and satellite provision 2009-2019 Richard Engelen ECMWF

2. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 2 Contents of the Presentation Overall Global Objectives of GEMS Specific Objectives of GEMS Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS 1.Data issues 2.Model 3.Assimilation 4.First 4D-Var results Schedule to operational transition of GEMS in May 2009 Review of Satellite Provision for GEMS 2009-2019

3. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 3 GEMS FAQs GMES Integrated Project: 4 years 2005-2009 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Management –CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) –Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) –Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) –AerosolO.Boucher (UK) –Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) –ValidationH.Eskes (NL) –Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),

4. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 4 Motivations for GEMS BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES Excess deaths in summer 2003 heatwave:- 18K in France, at least 33K in western Europe. SCIENCE GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.

5. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 5 GEMS organisation Validation Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality

6. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 6 Objectives of GEMS (i): Global Operational System for Monitoring & forecasting Atmospheric Composition Global Operational System By 2009 a validated, comprehensive, and operational global data assimilation / forecast system for atmospheric composition and dynamics, Combine all available remotely sensed and in-situ data Deliverables: global monitoring & forecasting 3D global distributions (high spatial and temporal resolution) of key atmospheric trace constituents including greenhouse gases (initially including CO 2, and progressively adding CH 4, N 2 O, plus SF 6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), reactive gases (initially including O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)

7. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 7 Objectives of GEMS (ii):-Regional Air-Quality Forecasts -Retrospective Analyses -Variational Inversion Techniques Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems Retrospective Analysis Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007) Sources, Sinks and Transports Provide state-of-the-art variational estimates of the sources, sinks and inter-continental transports, of many trace gases and aerosols;

8. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 8 Contents of the Presentation Overall Global Objectives Specific Objectives Progress since Spring 2005 start 1.Data issues 2.Model 3.Assimilation 4.First 4D-Var results Schedule to operational transition in May 2009 Satellite Provision 2009-2019

9. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 9 Progress since May 2005 in the global sub- projects Data Issue WMO involvement in Chemical Weather:- BUFR issues being worked out Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation from the space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA) Modelling Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species In-line parameterisations implemented for Greenhouse gases & Aerosol Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) or dynamically (Aerosol) Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running chemistry For reactive gases: Forecast model coupled via OASIS-4 to CTMs (Chemical Transport Models) is almost ready 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation) 3 separate assimilation systems have been built Forecast error correlations assessed by Ensemble 4DVar & NCEP methods Generic capability implemented in 4D-Var to assimilate radiances, retrieved profiles, and total column amounts First assimilations being assessed

10. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 10 ECMWF model CO 2 north-south gradients compared to surface flasks Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients. Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??) Jan 2004 Aug2004

11. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 11 ECMWF model CO 2 seasonal cycle compared to surface flasks Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the seasonal cycle. Northern hemisphere summer model values are slightly too high (missing land sink??) S. Hem N. Hem

12. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 12 First atmospheric CO 2 4D-Var analysis results After 10 days of 4D-Var, the analysis has increased the global mean value as well as the spatial gradients. The increments in any analysis cycle are within ± 3 ppmv. 369 387 3.2 -3.1

13. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 13 Zonal mean CO 2 distributions 369 380 60 S 60 N The effect of assimilating AIRS radiances is mainly to increase CO 2 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere. The lower troposphere is largely unaffected, because vertical error correlations are narrow and the adjoint of convection is still missing. 100 1000

14. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 14 First guess departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns Preliminary results for one analysis cycle

15. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 15 Analysis departures (obs-analysis) for AOD at 0.55 microns Preliminary results for one analysis cycle

16. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 16 (mg/kg) Aerosol mixing ratio increments at the surface

17. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 17 Background 20041201, 00z Analysis, 20041201, 0z CO observations Kg/m2 Observation error 10% diagonal B-matrix, σ b =1.e-7 kg/kg Background field = 1.e-7 kg/kg No chemistry Test assimilation of MOPITT total column CO data

18. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 18 Contents of the Presentation Overall Global Objectives Specific Objectives Progress since Spring 2005 start 1.Data issues 2.Model 3.Assimilation 4.First 4D-Var results Schedule to operational transition in May 2009 Satellite Provision 2009-2019

19. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 19 Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF Year 1 May 2005 - Aug 2006 Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. Acquire data; build web-site Year 2 Aug 2006 -Aug 2007 Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners Provide feedback to data providers Year 2-2.5 Aug 2007 -Jan 2008 Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience Year 2.5-3.5 Jan 2008 - Nov 2008 Build operational system, & interfaces to partners Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008 - May 2009 Final pre-operational trials Documentation & Scientific papers

20. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 20 Review of satellite provision 2009-2019 Key uncertainties in satellite provisions 2009-2019 Uncertain implications of $3B cost overrun in NOAA’s $8B NPP/NPOESS program DoD must report to Congress in May/June 2006 Worst case scenario: No launch before 2014 Recent news is much more encouraging NASA’s Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain ESA’s priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes Concerns Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Reactive Gases

21. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 21 Greenhouse Gas Provision

22. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 22 Aerosol Provision

23. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 23 Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision

24. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 24 Conclusions on GEMS satellite provision 2009-2019 Security of Satellite Provision beyond 2009 Most secure Greenhouse gases probably have the most secure provision Least Secure Reactive gases probably have the least secure provision Air-Quality chemistry has no provision beyond 2012 Aerosol provision depends on an early launch date for VIIRS on NOAA’s NPP/NPOESS Next Developments Press ESA for an Air-Quality mission in 2010, and EUMETSAT for 2020 Await Congressional confirmation of DoD/NOAA May’06 recommendations on NPP/NPOESS Hope that the US scientists can persuade current and future US administrations to fund the necessary NASA and NOAA missions.

25. Carbon Fusion Edinburgh 2006 GEMS R. Engelen Slide 25 END thank you for your attention! www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS