1. Integration 1 問題 1 存貨生產 (Make to stock) (push system) 的 優點與問題 – 成本、效率 vs. 產品多樣化、產品壽命週期 短 … – 為什麼 Coca Cola 可以？ 產業特性的考量 產業特性的考量 導入 POS (pull system) 可以決解所有問題？

2. Integration 2 問題 2 —which one is better? 1 供應商配銷商 零售商 供應商配銷商 零售商 實體 資訊 Push system Pull system

3. Integration 3 問題 2 —which one is better? 2 供應商團購網 消費者 供應商 零售商 實體 資訊

4. Integration 4 6.1 Introduction 1 Effective SCM implies: –Efficient integration of suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and stores. –Coordinate activities across the supply chain Improve performance: reduce cost, increase service level, reduce the bullwhip effect, better utilize resources, and effectively respond to changes in the market place.

5. Integration 5 6.1 Introduction 2 Various supply chain integration strategies: –Push, pull, push–pull strategy. –Matching products and industries with supply chain strategies. –Demand-driven supply chain strategies. –The impact of the Internet on supply chain integration.

6. Integration 6 6.2 Push, Pull, Push-Pull Systems Push and Pull traditional categories of manufacturing operations More recent hybrid strategy of combining the two, Push-Pull systems

7. Integration 7 Push-Based Supply Chains 1 Production and distribution decisions based on long-term forecasts. Manufacturer demand forecasts based on orders received from the retailer’s warehouses.

8. Integration 8 Push-Based Supply Chains 2 Longer reaction time to changing marketplace: –Inability to meet changing demand patterns. 例如， NOKIA 在智慧型手機市場節節敗退 … 例如，平板電腦對筆記型電腦的衝擊 … 推出 Ultra Book… However, ipad 已經推出第三代 … –Obsolescence of supply chain inventory as demand for certain products disappears. 例如， DRAM

9. Integration 9 Push-Based Supply Chains 3 Longer reaction time to changing marketplace: –Variability of orders received much larger than the variability in customer demand due to the bullwhip effect. Excessive inventories due to the need for large safety stocks Larger and more variable production batches( 超時生產與資源閒置的成本增加 ) Unacceeptable service levels Product obsolescence

10. Integration 10 Bullwhip Effect in Push-Based Supply Chains Leads to inefficient resource utilization Planning and managing are much more difficult. Not clear how a manufacturer should determine production capacity? Transportation capacity? –Peak demand? –Average demand? Results: –Higher transportation costs –Higher inventory levels and/or higher manufacturing costs –more emergency production changeovers

11. Integration 11 Pull-Based Supply Chains 1 Production and distribution demand driven –Coordinated with true customer demand rather than forecast demand –firm does not hold any inventory and only responds to specific orders.

12. Integration 12 Pull-Based Supply Chains 2 Intuitively attractive: –Reduced lead times through the ability to better anticipate incoming orders from the retailers. –Reduced inventory since inventory levels decrease with lead times –Less variability in the system –Decreased inventory at the manufacturer due to the reduction in variability.

13. Integration 13 Problems of Pull-Based Systems Difficult to implement when lead times are so long that it is impractical to react to demand information Harder to leverage economies of scale —Doesn ’ t work in all cases ― 現在訂 mini ，四個月後交車 …

14. Integration 14 Push-Pull Strategy Some stages of the supply chain operated in a push-based manner –typically the initial stages Remaining stages employ a pull-based strategy. Interface between the push-based stages and the pull-based stages is the push–pull boundary.

15. Integration 15 Push-Pull Supply Chains Push-Pull Boundary PUSH STRATEGYPULL STRATEGY Low Uncertainty High Uncertainty The Supply Chain Time Line Customers Suppliers

16. Integration 16 Consider Two PC Manufacturers: Build to Stock –Forecast demand –Buys components –Assembles computers –Observes demand and meets demand if possible. A traditional push system Build to order –Forecast demand –Buys components –Observes demand –Assembles computers –Meets demand A push-pull system The push-pull boundary is at the beginning of assemble.

17. Integration 17 General Strategy Make a part of the product to stock – generic product (CPU ， DRAM…) The point where differentiation has to be introduced is the push-pull boundary Based on extent of customization, the position of the boundary on the timeline is decided

18. Integration 18 Push-Pull Strategies― Advantage of the rules of forecasting Forecasts are always wrong (pull strategy) The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast (finished goods) (push-pull boundary) Aggregate forecasts are more accurate (components) (push strategy) –The Risk Pooling Concept

19. Integration 19 Push-Pull Strategies― Postponement The firm designs the product and the manufacturing process so that decisions about which specific product is being manufactured can be delayed as long as possible. The portion of the supply chain prior to product differentiation is typically operated using a push-based strategy. The portion of the supply chain starting from the time of differentiation is pull- based.

20. Integration 20 What is the Best Strategy about Push – Pull Strategy? Low High HLHL Economies of Scale Pull Push Pull Push Demand uncertainty (C.V.) Delivery cost Unit price IIIGroceryIV Books & CDs IIFurnitureIComputer

21. Integration 21 Selecting the Best SC Strategy 1 Higher demand uncertainty suggests pull Higher importance of economies of scale suggests push High uncertainty/ EOS not important (Box I) such as the computer industry implies pull ( 例如， Dell Computer) Low uncertainty/ EOS important (Box III) such as groceries implies push –Demand is stable –Transportation cost reduction is critical –Pull would not be appropriate here. – 例如，可口可樂

22. Integration 22 Selecting the Best SC Strategy 2 Low uncertainty but low value of economies of scale (Box IV)(high volume books and cd’s ( 產品壽命週期短 ) –Either push strategies or push/pull strategies might be most appropriate High uncertainty and high value of economies of scale (Box II) –For example, the furniture industry –How can production be pull but delivery push? –Is this a “pull-push” system?

23. Integration 23 案列討論 書籍或 CD 採 push or push-pull 策略 ― 科技 的影響 – 傳統印刷廠 ― 一刷、二刷、三刷 …(push) – 導入電腦化之印刷製程 ― 大量進紙，欲增印， 直接更改文件檔 …(push-pull) 家俱業基於實際需求進行生產 (pull) ，訂定 固配送排程，總合所有運往相同區域商店 的商品，依固定時間進行運送 (push) 以降 低運輸成本

24. Integration 24 Push-Pull Strategy ― Case Study Coca cola 御便當 …( 短前置時間 、 低需求變異 )( 連續補 貨 ) ( 第三方物流、 POS 、 EOS) McDonald’s… Sport Obermeyer (example 6-3, p.196) –Low-risk products  push strategy –High-risk products  push-pull strategy 精品咖啡店 – 單品咖啡 ― 顧客要求小批、多樣化、即時烘焙  push- pull strategy – 意式咖啡  push strategy

25. Integration 25 Characteristics and Skills Raw Material Customers Pull Push High Low Uncertainty Long Lead Times Cost Minimization Resource Allocation Supply chain planning Low High Uncertainty Short Cycle Times Service Level Responsiveness Order fulfillment Complexity Uncertainty Lead time Objective Focus Processes

26. Integration 26 Locating the Push-Pull Boundary 1 The push section: –Uncertainty is relatively low –Economies of scale important –Long lead times –Complex supply chain structures Thus –Management based on forecasts is appropriate –Focus is on cost minimization –Achieved by effective resource utilization – supply chain optimization 例如， IC 產業

27. Integration 27 Locating the Push-Pull Boundary 2 The pull section: –High uncertainty –Simple supply chain structure –Short lead times Thus –Reacting to realized demand is important –Focus on service level –Flexible and responsive approaches 例如，網路購物 …

28. Integration 28 Locating the Push-Pull Boundary 3 The push section requires: –Supply chain planning –Long term strategies The pull section requires: –Order fulfillment processes –Customer relationship management Buffer inventory at the boundaries: –The output of the tactical planning process –The input to the order fulfillment process.

29. Integration 29 案例 精品咖啡店的 push-pull boundary― 自家 店內 – 生豆進貨  push ( 前置時間長、運輸成本高 ) – 單品烘焙  pull( 顧客要求小批、多樣化、新 鮮 — 即時烘焙 )

30. Integration 30 Locating the Push-Pull Boundary 4

31. Integration 31 6.3 The Impact of Lead Time 1 Longer the lead time, more important it is to implement a push based strategy. Typically difficult to implement a pull strategy when lead times are so long that it is hard to react to demand information.

32. Integration 32 Impact of Lead Time 2 FIGURE 6-10: Matching supply chain strategies with products: the impact of lead time and demand uncertainty

33. Integration 33 Impact of Lead Time 3 Box A –Items with short lead time and high demand uncertainty –Pull strategy should be applied as much as possible. Box B –Items with long supply lead time and low demand uncertainty. –Appropriate supply chain strategy is push.

34. Integration 34 問題討論 眼鏡業 vs. 紅酒製造業者 ― short lead time and high demand uncertainty vs. long lead time and low demand uncertainty ― pull vs. push

35. Integration 35 Impact of Lead Time 4 Box C –items with short supply lead time and highly predictable demand. –Continuous replenishment strategy Suppliers receive POS data They use these data to prepare shipments at previously agreed-upon intervals A pull strategy at the production and distribution stages and push at the retail outlets. – 例如 ，食品雜貨業之較短生命週期的產品 ( 麵包、 乳製品 )

36. Integration 36 Impact of Lead Time 5 Box D –Items with lead times are long and unpredictable demand Inventory is critical in this type of environment Requires positioning inventory strategically in the supply chain

37. Integration 37 問題討論 御便當 vs. Blu-ray ― short lead time and low demand uncertainty vs. long lead time and high demand uncertainty ― continuous replenishment vs. inventory positioning

38. Integration 38 6.4 Demand-Driven Strategies Requires integrating demand information into the supply chain planning process –Demand forecast: Use historical demand data to develop long- term estimates of expected demand –Demand shaping: Firm determines the impact of various marketing plans such as promotion, pricing discounts, rebates, new product introduction, and product withdrawal on demand forecasts.

39. Integration 39 高需求預測誤差對供應鏈績效表現帶來不 利的影響，造成銷售損失、過時存貨，以 及無效率的資源利用。 Effect of forecast error

40. Integration 40 預測誤差的估計 平均絶對誤差 (mean absolute deviation, MAD) 均方誤差 (mean squared error, MSE) 平均絶對百分比誤差 (mean absolute percent error, MAPE)

41. Integration 41 預測的監控 1 ― 管制圖 管制中心線 (Center Line, CL) ： CL=0 管制上限 (Upper Control Limit, UCL) 管制下限 (Lower Control Limit, LCL)

42. Integration 42 預測的監控 2 ― 追蹤訊號 追蹤訊號的目的在於偵測誤差的任何偏差 數值為 0 最為理想，正負 4 到正負 5 的界限常 被作為可接受範圍。若數值落在可接受範 圍外，會被視為有預測偏差的訊號，此時 需進行矯正動作。 當計算出第一個 MAD 值後，可用指數平滑 法更新 MAD

43. Integration 43 選擇推－拉界線使需求能透過下列一個或多個構 面來彙總需求：產品 、地理區域 、時間 選擇推－拉界線使需求能透過下列一個或多個構 面來彙總需求：產品 、地理區域 、時間 使用市場分析、人口統計學及經濟趨勢改善預測 的準確性 ( 因果法 ) 使用市場分析、人口統計學及經濟趨勢改善預測 的準確性 ( 因果法 ) 決定各店最佳產品組合以便降低在同一市場競爭 的商品種類。 決定各店最佳產品組合以便降低在同一市場競爭 的商品種類。 將顧客結合到協同規劃與預測程序中，以便更瞭 解市場需求、促銷影響、價格事件與廣告。 將顧客結合到協同規劃與預測程序中，以便更瞭 解市場需求、促銷影響、價格事件與廣告。 –Collaborative Planning Forecasting and replenishment, CPFR) CPFR 降低預測誤差的方法

44. Integration 44 案例 iPhone 、 Apple Watch… 預購活動 … – 利用預購量預測市場可能需求量 …

45. Integration 45 案例 宜蘭燒餅 vs. 無錫排骨 – 上網瀏灠  滙款  宅配到府 vs. 只有無錫的 賣場有賣 … 網路實體零售商 (click-and-mortar) vs. 實 體零售商 (brick-and-mortar) – 案例，向台中的咖啡店訂咖啡 … – ＊大與＊美相關老店 vs. 虛實整合商店 …

46. Integration 46 理論應用 麻雀的尾巴一旦拉長，也會變成鳳凰 ― 長 尾理論 (the long tail) 長 尾理論 (the long tail) 長 尾理論 (the long tail)問題 – 便利商店 80% 的營收來自 400 個品項，其餘 1400 個品項的營業額僅有兩成 … –7net 7net 案例 – 搶攻宅經濟！ㄧ通電話訂 LV 送到家 接單量增 2 倍

47. Integration 47 問題 Amazon 的興衰 …

48. Integration 48 6.5 The Impact of the Internet on Supply Chain Strategies 1 Expectation that increasing use of the internet would solve a lot of the business problems –However, reality was very different Many of the problems in the internet- based businesses were related to logistics strategies

49. Integration 49 問題討論 網路賣年菜 … – 鮮食直送 vs. 第三方低温物流 + 便利商店取貨 物流的問題解決了，但是口味 …

50. Integration 50 The Impact of the Internet on Supply Chain Strategies 2 E-business strategies were supposed to: –Reduce cost –Increase service level –Increase flexibility –Increase profit

51. Integration 51 Reality is … downfall Peapod Example –Founded 1989 –140,000 members, largest on-line grocer –Revenue tripled to $73 million in 1999 –1st Quarter of 2000: $25M Sales, Loss: $8M

52. Integration 52 Reality is … successful Dell Example: –Dell Computer has outperformed the competition in terms of shareholder value growth over the eight years period, 1988-1996, by over 3,000% (see Anderson and Lee, 1999) Amazon.com Example –Founded in 1995; 1st Internet purchase for most people –1996: $16M Sales, $6M Loss –1999: $1.6B Sales, $720M Loss –2000: $2.7B Sales, $1.4B Loss –2005: Revenue reached 8.49B with total profit of 359M

53. Integration 53 What is E-Business? 1 E-business is a collection of business models and processes motivated by Internet technology, and focusing on improving the extended enterprise performance E-commerce is the ability to perform major commerce transactions electronically

54. Integration 54 What is E-Business? 2 e-commerce is part of e-Business Internet technology is the driver of the business change The focus of E-Business is on the extended enterprise: –Intra-organizational –Business to Consumer (B2C) –Business to Business (B2B)

55. Integration 55 The Grocery Industry From Push Systems... –Supermarket supply chain...To Pull Systems –Peapod, 1989-1999 Picks inventory from stores Stock outs 8% to 10% And, finally to Push-Pull Systems –Peapod, 1999-present Dedicated warehouses allow risk pooling (covers a geographical area larger than the one covered by an individual supermarket) Stock outs less than 2%

56. Integration 56 Challenges for On-line Grocery Stores Transportation cost –Density of customers –Very short order cycle times Less than 12 hours Less than 12 hours –Difficult to compete on cost Must provide some added value such as convenience Is a push-pull strategy appropriate? What might be a better strategy? –Low demand uncertainty, high economies of scale (transportation cost)… push strategy is better…? – 例如，買菜網 …

57. Integration 57 Less than 300,000 shoppers Source: D. Ratliff

58. Integration 58 A New Type of Home Grocer grocerystreet.com grocerystreet.com –On-line window for retailers –The on-line grocer picks products at the store –Customer can pick products at the store or pay for delivery Yahoo 超級商城 Yahoo 超級商城

59. Integration 59 The Book Selling Industry From Push Systems... –Barnes and Noble...To Pull Systems –Amazon.com, 1996-1999 –No inventory, used Ingram to meet most demand –Why? And, finally to Push-Pull Systems –Amazon.com, 1999-present 7 warehouses, 3M sq. ft., –Why the switch? Volume grew Profit margins , service level , etc.

60. Integration 60 Direct-to-Consumer:Cost Trade-Off

61. Integration 61 Industry Benchmarks: Number of Distribution Centers Sources: CLM 1999, Herbert W. Davis & Co; LogicTools Avg. # of WH 31425 Pharmaceuticals Food CompaniesChemicals - High margin product - Service not important (or easy to ship express) - Inventory expensive relative to transportation - Low margin product - Service very important - Outbound transportation expensive relative to inbound

62. Integration 62 The Retail Industry Brick-and-mortar ( 實體零售商 ) companies establish virtual retail stores ― click-and mortar ( 網路實體零售商 ) –Wal-Mart ， K-Mart ， Barnes ， & 7-11 (7net) An effective approach - hybrid stocking strategy –High volume/fast moving products for local storage –Low volume/slow moving products for browsing and purchase on line (risk pooling)

63. Integration 63 案例 Another case: 高島 × 的咖啡機 … – 策略聯盟下的虛實整合 … 7net www.scubastore.com

64. Integration 64 案例 安＊物流中心 vs. Coca Cola

65. Integration 65 E-Fulfillment How have strategies changed? –From shipping cases to single items ( 產品 多樣、少量化 …) –From shipping to a relatively small number of stores to individual end users. ( 宅配 ) –Increased the importance and the complexity of reverse logistics – 例如，網路購物 (B2C)

66. Integration 66 E-Fulfillment Requires a New Logistics Infrastructure

67. Integration 67 E-business Opportunities 1 Reduce Facility Costs –Eliminate retail/distributor sites Reduce Inventory Costs –Apply the risk-pooling concept Centralized stocking Postponement of product differentiation Use Dynamic Pricing Strategies to Improve Supply Chain Performance –Dynamic pricing: 不同的時間訂定不同的價格

68. Integration 68 E-business Opportunities 2 Supply Chain Visibility –Reduction in the Bullwhip Effect Reduction in Inventory Improved service level Better utilization of Resources –Improve supply chain performance Provide key performance measures Identify and alert when violations occur Allow planning based on global supply chain data

69. Integration 69 問題討論 畢業後從事網拍 or 找份正職工作？？ – 商品屬性 運輸成本存放期限壽命週期 單位利潤 … – 市場屬性 密度廣度需求前置時間相關人口統計變數 競爭 …

70. Integration 70 Summary Implementation of push-pull strategies and demand-driven strategies have helped many companies to improve performance, reduce costs, increase service levels. Collapse of many Internet companies shows that e-business has great challenges. Companies need to: –Identify the appropriate supply chain strategy for individual products. –Case for no physical infrastructure or inventory is tenuous –Push–pull strategy advocates holding inventory although it pushes the inventory upstream in the supply chain.