2. ATPSM Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model Lucian Cernat International Trade Division United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

3. General Overview: What is ATPSM? Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model Computable international trade model Analyse agricultural trade policy issues Quantify economic effects - unilateral changes - multilateral changes Comprehensive database

4. ATPSM: Main theoretical features Multi-country partial equilibrium model System of equations for supply, demand, trade flows Static model, no stochastic shocks or uncertainty No time dimension, but some assumptions on demand (short-term) and supply response (long-term) No cross-sectoral effects from agriculture to other economic sectors Considers interrelationships between different commodities (e.g. when competing for land)

5. ATPSM: Main theoretical features (2) Three agents: producers, consumers, government Prices in the model –No account of domestic trade margins –Domestic: producer and wholesale prices –World price Specific and mixed tariffs, export subsidies, etc. are expressed as AVEs Quota rents: assumed to be captured by exporters Data limitations: –no policy data for some developing countries –Modelled as price takers –Some applied and bound tariffs are missing

6. TRQs and quota rents Q p q pwpw P w + t i P w + t o TRi TRo MM LDC

7. Features of ATPSM: Trade Policies Specified Global import quota Bound in-quota tariff rates Bound out-of-quota tariff rates Distribution of quota rents Applied tariff rates Export subsidies Domestic support Two-way trade Two tier tariff structure

8. Coverage of ATPSM 175 countries EU-15 one region Detailed trade policy data for 141 countries 35 agricultural commodities

9. ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (1) Livestock Bovine meat Sheepmeat Pigmeat Poultry Milk, fresh Milk, conc. Butter Cheese Wheat Maize Sorghum Barley Rice Sugar, raw Sugar, refined Oilseeds, temp. Oilseeds, trop. Vegetable oils Pulses Roots, tubers

10. ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (2) Tomatoes Non-tropical fruits Citrus fruits Bananas Other tropical fruits Coffee green Coffee processed Cocoa beans Cocoa, processed Tea Tobacco leaves Tobacco, processed Cotton linters Hides & Skines

11. Trade Policy Questions Impact of reductions in bound out-of-quota tariff rates in all developed countries on - trade flows - export revenues - tariff revenues Impact of reductions in export subsidies on - world market prices - net food importers Impact of possible WTO agreements on developing countries

12. Change in producer surplus Cancun and Harbinson

13. Change in consumer surplus Cancun and Harbinson

14. Change in welfare: Cancun and Harbinson

15. Preference Erosion: Quota rents before and after liberalization in selected SSA countries

16. Special and differential tratment Level of S&D decreases

17. Summary Easy to use for negotiators and researchers Graphical user interface On-line help function and handbook available No need expensive software (e.g. CGE modelling) Regular model updates Possibilities to use the results for trade- poverty nexus analysis

18. What does it cost? Available free on CD ATPSM Project Coordinator UNCTAD / DITC Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva Available from UNCTAD website www.unctad.org/tab Support from atpsm@unctad.org