1. Charleston Pre-Conference Nov. 3, 2004 David Goodman Palmer School of Library and Information Science Long Island University dgoodman@liu.edu How to survive during the transition

2. How to survive during the transition for publishers and librarians Charleston Pre-Conference Nov. 3, 2004 David Goodman Palmer School of Library and Information Science Long Island University dgoodman@liu.edu

3. 3 Probable: US & UK Plans enacted in their current form: self-archiving, with quality control by existing journals "Green OA" (journal + repository) and expanding to all subjects and adopted in all countries

4. 4 Less Probable: US & UK Plans not enacted Delayed and gradual start of OA, but otherwise exactly the same consequences

5. 5 Alternative 1: "Green" OA succeeds; journals continue

6. 6 Alternative 2: "Green" OA fails; journals cease

7. 7 Green OA S uccess The factor determining success is journal cancellations The factors determining cancellations are price increases access alternatives and whether authors insist on fully edited articles for their work.

8. 8 The Base Rate of Cancellations 1. The base rate of cancellations is determined by price increases. 2. Since journal prices increase faster than library budgets, libraries must cancel some journals each year 3. If journal prices did not increase, libraries would rarely cancel 4. Libraries are fiduciaries to use their funds most efficiently for their users' benefit 5. Therefore, libraries will cancel the least needed titles, as judged by cost / benefit

9. 9 1. The cost / benefit judgment affects: a. lowest quality journals even in core areas b. even good journals in peripheral areas. Thus, even high quality titles receive some cancellations 2. Benefit includes use (however measured) demand alternatives 3. OA is expected to increase use Thus OA by itself will not trigger cancellations Use

10. 10 1. a. OA increases access possibilities b. Therefore OA will increase the rate of subscription loss 2. a. At the very beginning, required OA will provide little additional access b. Therefore, at the beginning of required OA, there will be little additional subscription loss Access

11. 11 1. The loss will increase later 2. The extent depends upon whether academic authors insist upon fully edited articles for their work a. In some fields authors already do not b. in most fields it is unknown c. neither publishers nor libraries can influence this 3. However, there will be time to adapt before loss becomes too great Acceptibility

12. 12 Basic Strategies Fail-safe policies, which can be carried out simultaneously, and without interference: A) Publishers: convert to OA Journals B) Libraries: decrease long-term commitments

13. 13 Publisher OA Journal Strategy 1. The one form of OA that does not harm publishers is OA Journals 2. To convert to OA Journals takes time and capital 3. The phased onset of OA will give a few years time 4. Many publishers, especially large ones, have capital 5. Therefore, they should completely convert to OA Journals while still healthy

14. 14 Publisher OA Journal Strategy by Type 1. Large nonprofit publishers with low costs will do well 2. Small non-profit publishers should if possible amalgamate or seek subsidy 3. Very small nonprofit publishers and their societies should switch to Article Databases 4. Large for-profit publishers should cut costs by leanness, better technology, and lower profit expectations 5. Small for-profit publishers should seek niches

15. 15 Publisher OA Journal Strategy: Costs 12. A publisher of OA Journals must have competitive costs 12a. The present standard is APS 13. Publishers can increase efficiency for OA Journals and avoid most present cancellations, if they avoid price increases 14. For OA Journals, meeting price competition will be as important as quality competition.

16. 16 Poor Publisher Strategies a. Relying on long-term contracts will come to an end when the contracts do b. Relying on National consortia that will be replaced by OA. c. Not providing statistics will encourage cancellation d. Many A & I services have become obsolete, because much simpler services perform as well. Therefore, vertical integration risks very low-cost competition e. Relying on high-priced sales to industry may mean abandoning the academic market f. Trying to resist OA

17. 17 Why Cooperation is Possible Libraries must spend all their money; what they save on journals, they'll spend on books.

18. 18 Library Strategy 1. Libraries cannot count on consistent funding increases 2. Therefore, they should not sign or renew multiyear contracts 3. Since this costs more at first, they must buy less 4. If they only buy what is needed, they can afford premium document delivery services. 5. Libraries should avoid canceling titles with no price increase, and titles from publishers converting to OA Journals.

19. 19 Library Electronic Resource Strategy 1. Libraries should avoid relying on publishers' services for distribution. They cannot easily get free of them 2. For electronic publications, libraries must get a physical electronic copy and thenceforth use consortial file serving 3. Libraries can enforce publisher cooperation by willingness to cancel subscriptions 4. Archiving is a library function

20. 20 Library OA Strategy 1. Libraries should cooperate with publishers only when it aids both them and all other libraries 2. Libraries can help efficient low-cost publishers and all forms of OA 3. Libraries must ultimately release some library funds to pay OA Journals' author fees 4. Libraries should assist Institutional Repository "self- archiving" to advance to true Article Databases with quality control (just in case)

21. 21 Poor Library Strategies a. Avoiding mistakes by buying everything b. Avoiding thought by renewing everything c. Being archival in all subjects d. Letting users adapt to slow ILL e. Signing contracts that favor only one's own library f. Not actively assisting Institutional Repositories and other forms of OA g. Waiting untill faculty take the lead

22. 22 If we cannot get the system to work, the scientists will run it themselves

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