1. Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank

2. COMESA’s Infrastructure: a Continental Perspective

3. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort

4. Extracting the regional integration story from the AICD  AICD first and foremost a country level infrastructure diagnostic  National infrastructure networks provide the building blocks for regional integration  AICD results are being packaged into REC level reports as an input to the PIDA process

5. Key Message #1 Eastern and Southern Africa respectively lag and lead the continent on infrastructure – prices remain very high

6. Eastern Africa lags behind other regions particularly with regard to power infrastructure WesternEasternSouthernCentral Paved road density 38 29 92 4 Mainline density 28 6 80 13 Mobile density 72 46 133 84 Internet density 2 2 4 1 Generation capacity 31 16 176 47 Electricity coverage 18 6 24 21 Improved water 63 71 68 53 Improved sanitation 35 42 46 28

7. Africa’s infrastructure services several times more expensive than elsewhere

8. Key Message #2 Regional power trade could save EAPP/NB and SAPP areas US$2.1 billion per year (and millions of tons of CO 2 emissions)

9. Existing pattern of power production and transmission Major new links planned in EAPP/NB

10. Existing pattern of power production and transmission with major new links

11. Regional power trade could save EAPP/NB and SAPP each about US$1 billion a year (US$ billion) Trade expansion Trade stagnation Trade expansionTrade stagnation New Investment 7.5 -Generation 4.42.64.54.9 -Inter-connectors 0.100.40.0 -Distribution 1.1 2.6 Refurbishment 0.5 2.6 Variable cost 6.89.78.49.4 Total cost 15.016.018.419.5 EAPP / NBSAPP Note: Numbers include Egypt Return on cross-border inter-connectors is 20 percent for EAPP/NB and 167 percent for SAPP

12. Trade expansionTrade stagnation Regional power trade could increase reliance on hydro-power reducing CO 2 emissions SAPP EAPP / NB

13. Volume traded has potential to increase from 12 to 162 terrawatt hours a year in EAPP/NB Trade expansionTrade stagnation

14. Two major exporters (Ethiopia, Sudan), and one major importer (Egypt) would emerge

15. Volume traded has potential to increase from 45 to 146 terra-watt hours a year in SAPP Trade expansionTrade stagnation

16. One major exporter, and five countries could import more than 50 percent of needs

17. Economic gains? Trade leads to substantial savings in power costs for some countries (US cents/kWh)Trade expansionTrade stagnationDifference CAPP79-2 EAPP/NB12 0 SAPP67 WAPP1819

18. Financial gains? Burden of power spending needs varies widely depending on trade – EAPP/NB

19. Financial gains? Burden of power spending needs varies widely depending on trade - SAPP

20. Model can be used to explore sensitivities to key environmental factors  Impact of oil price increases?  For EAPP, increasing oil price from US$46 to US$75/bbl to adds 600 MW of hydro and increases costs by 30%  Impact of climate change?  For EAPP, 25% reduction in rainfall reduces reliance on hydro by 4,000 MW and raises costs by 9%  Impact of Clean Development Mechanism?  For SAPP, a price of US$15 per ton CO 2 would add an additional 8,000 MW of hydro and save 36 million tons CO 2

21. Key Message #3 Regional fiber optic network within reach for modest investment and with potential to slash costs

22. Cost of international calls within Africa substantially exceeds that of calls to US

23. Regional fiber optic backbone network remains limited and disjointed

24. Regional fiber optic backbone network limited but ambitious plans underway

25. Countries with submarine access benefit, and those with competitive access even more so Share of countries (%) Price per minute for a call within Sub-Saharan ($) Price per minute for a call to US ($) Price for 20 hours per month of dial-up Internet access ($) No access to submarine cable 671.340.8667.95 Access to submarine cable 320.570.4847.28 Monopoly international gateway 160.700.7237.36 Competitive international gateways 160.480.2336.62

26. Countries with submarine access benefit, and those with competitive access even more so Share of countries (%) Price per minute for a call within Sub-Saharan ($) Price per minute for a call to US ($) Price for 20 hours per month of dial-up Internet access ($) No access to submarine cable 671.340.8667.95 Access to submarine cable 320.570.4847.28 Monopoly international gateway 160.700.7237.36 Competitive international gateways 160.480.2336.62 To complete regional fiber optic backbone network a further 2,500 kms needed in Eastern Africa and 3,000 kms in Southern Africa

27. Key Message #4 Regional road network in relatively good shape, particularly relative to traffic

28. Higher traffic volumes clearly concentrated on certain segments

30. Network generally in reasonable condition except for stretches in parts of Kenya and Sudan

31. Network generally in reasonable condition except for stretches in DRC, Zambia

32. Road condition Average annual daily traffic Regional network mainly paved and in good or fair condition but with limited traffic Southern Eastern

33. Less than 5 percent of regional network requires rehabilitation and paving appears adequate (kilometers)Total Poor conditionUnpaved Very low traffic (<300 veh/d) Eastern Africa 11,240 282 2,848 2,791 Burundi 351 85 20 5 Kenya 5,672 0 1,163 1,092 Rwanda 231 0 0 0 Tanzania 3,174 119 1,269 1,212 Uganda 1,811 78 397 482

34. One fifth of regional network requires rehabilitation but little need for further paving (kilometers)Total Poor conditionUnpaved very low traffic (<300 veh/d) Southern Africa 49,664 10,319 4,933 6,817 South Africa 10,190 24 0 317 DRC 10,119 6,224 99 - Angola 4,401- 1,584 - Tanzania 4,043 152 1,616 1,543 Mozambique 3,996 603 844 - Namibia 3,568 280 0 965 Zambia 3,510 1,181 23 1,896 Madagascar 3,174 484 709 1,488 Zimbabwe 2,694 0 0 147 Bostwana 2,535 na 0 397 Malawi 1,272 70 58 64 Swaziland 163 0 0 0 - Not available

35. Key Message #5 Despite condition of infrastructure, freight moves at ‘horse-and-buggy’ pace

36. Low effective velocity of freight both by road and by rail when delays factored in No data available for state-run railway networks; based on data for following concessions: 1. Sitarail and Transrail, 2. Camrail (domestic railway), 3. KRC-URC

37. Overall corridor competitiveness is key (e.g. copper exports from Lubumbashi)

38. North-South Corridor illustrates importance of trade facilitation factors  Kolwezi to Durban by rail  9 days travel time plus 29 days of delays  Delays largely due to loading and interchange (e.g. Spoornet)  Freight movements effectively slowed to 4 km/hr  Each day of delay costs US$200 for typical freight wagon  Lusaka to Durban by road  4 days travel time plus 4 days of delays  Delays largely due to Beit Bridge, Chirundu crossings*  Freight movements effectively slowed to 12 km/hr  Each day of delay costs US$300 for 8 axle truck

39. Key Message #6 More competitive transport services needed to drive down high costs of road freight

40. High road freight costs driven by high profit margins resulting from market concentration Roads in good condition (%) Trade density (US$m. per km) Implicit velocity (km per hour) Freight tariff (US$ per ton-km) Profit margins (%) Western728.26.00.0880 Central494.26.10.1370-160 Eastern825.78.10.0770-90 Southern10027.911.60.0520-60

41. Key Message #7 Africa’s trade development requires sound ports strategy based on regional hubs, competitive transport services and improved inland linkages

42. Handful of rail corridors to the sea with northern corridor showing highest traffic

43. Railways mainly developed in South Africa

44. Performance of rail service relatively poor (with exception of Spoornet ore and coal lines) RailwayCFM BRCCCFBCEARTransNamibSpoornet ZR Country AngolaBotswanaMozambiqueMalawiNamibiaS. AfricaZimbabwe Concessioned (1)/ State run (0) 0011000 Traffic density, freight, 1000 ton-km/km469827662904752,427902 EFFICIENCY: Staff: 1000 T per staff5807222811314843,308390 Coaches: 1000 passenger- km per coach4,0452,3917501,176nav6111,304 Cars: 1000 ton-km per wagon95098747682805913195 Locomotive productivity: TU mln per locomotive5807222811314843,308390 TARIFFS: Unit revenue, freight, US cents/ton-km3.02.43.35.8nav Unit revenue, passenger, US cents/passenger-km1.01.30.51.0nav

45. Huge variance in ports performance but generally well below global productivity standards and well above global charges Eastern AfricaSouthern AfricaWestern Africa Global Best Practice Productivity Container dwell time (days) 5-284-811-30<7 Truck processing time (hours) 4-242-126-241 Crane productivity (containers/hour) 8-208-227-2020-30 Crane productivity (tons/hour) 8-2510-257-15>30 Charges Container handling charge ($/TEU) 135-275110-243100-32080-150 General cargo handling charge ($/ton) 6-1511-158-157-9

46. Port benchmarking indicates reasonable efficiency… Port Dar es SalaamMombasaMaputo Sudan Cape TownDurban Country TanzaniaKenyaMozambiqueSudan South Africa EFFICIENCY: Container dwell time (days) 235222864 Truck processing time (hours) 54.54244.85 Crane productivity (containers/hour) 20101181815 Crane productivity (tons/hour) 20211181525

47. …but very high tariffs Port Dar es SalaamMombasaMaputo Sudan Cape TownDurban Country TanzaniaKenya Mozambiq ueSudan South Africa CAPACITY: Containers handled (TEU/year) 198,472436,67144,000328,690690,8951,899,065 Container capacity (TEU/year) 400,000600,000100, 000400,000950,0001,450,000 General cargo capacity (tons/year) 8,000,0001,500,000nav7,500,0001,100,000nav Liquid bulk cargo capacity (tons/year) 2,000,0005,500,000410,000nav7,500,000nav TARIFFS: handling charge (USD/ton) General cargo 13.56.56101.4817.4 Dry bulk 4.55236.51.48 Liquid bulk 3.5nav0.512.68NA

48. Key Message #8 Relatively advanced air transport market but still far to go on liberalization and surveillance Safety remains an issue

49. Strong hub and spoke structure around Nairobi supports inter-regional travel

50. Strong hub and spoke structure evident around Johannesburg

51. Reasonable frequency and velocity but relatively low connectivity No. of direct flights per week No. of direct city pairs served Average velocity of flights (km/hr) Burundi423420 Ethiopia544554 Kenya1065406 Rwanda524254 Sudan333472 Uganda834363

52. Reasonable frequency and velocity but relatively low connectivity No. of direct flights per week No. of direct city pairs served Average velocity of flights (km/hr) South Africa92114538 Zambia2235438 Zimbabwe2189440 Botswana1373380 Mozambique1374382 Namibia1273546 Swaziland1042324 Malawi684357 Lesotho621301 Mauritius583678 Tanzania565505 DRC334504 Madagascar322634 Angola305643 Seychelles102721

53. Implementation of Yamassoukro Decision very uneven Status of implementation of Yamassoukro Decision Percentage of flights flown under 5 th and 7 th freedoms WAEMU Fully implemented: all freedoms, cabotage, liberalized tariffs44 BAG Principles agreed in air transport program: up to 5 th freedom, tariffs liberalized, capacity open43 CEMAC Principles established in multilateral agreement: up to 5 th freedom, tariffs liberalized, capacity open28 EAC Directive requires amendments to bilateral agreements but these remain pending16 COMESA Liberalization agreed but implementation pending creation of joint competition authority14 SADCNo steps have been taken6

54. Airline market share Fleet composition Concentration of air transport market has declined slightly and fleet composition renewed Souther Africa Eastern Africa

55. Key Message #9 Achieving regional integration for Eastern and Southern Africa would require sustained spending of US$5.5 billion a year

56. Regional integration target ICT Complete missing kilometers fiber optic backbone network giving all landlocked countries two alternative routes to submarine cables Power Complete regional transmission network to allow power trade and develop large scale regional hydro-power schemes high on merit order TransportUpgrade regional road network to good quality two lane paved road Water Na. Illustrative targets for regional integration in Eastern and Southern Africa over next decade

57. Lion’s share of regional spending needs relate to power sector in Ethiopia, Sudan (US$ millions a year over a decade)ICTPowerRoadsTotal East Africa672,2543062,627 Burundi2158 Ethiopia191,002571,078 Kenya534452 Rwanda859370 Sudan331,0321071,172 Tanzania2126175 Uganda1914529193

58. Burden of regional spending high in many countries – notably Ethiopia, Rwanda As percentage GDP As percentage spending

59. About 60 percent of regional spending needs relate to the power sector in Southern Africa (US$ millions a year over a decade)ICTPowerRoadsTotal Southern Africa81,7281,156 2,892 Angola087125 212 Botswana01053 63 DRC1803406 1,210 Lesotho000 - Madagascar2068 70 Malawi1120 22 Mozambique141676 493 Namibia03049 79 South Africa01114 115 Swaziland0060 Tanzania10111 112 Zambia114258 201 Zimbabwe123815 254

60. Burden of regional spending high in many countries – notably DRC and Mozambique As percentage GDP As percentage spending

61. Final Message Efficient regional institutions are essential to deliver and share promised benefits of regional infrastructure More coordination of the different stakeholders on common regional agendas are required.

62. Financial gains? Burden of power spending needs varies widely depending on trade