1. Arab Spring : Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ or not? B11504 Moeko Takizawa

2. Background ( Wikipedia 2012a)

3. OUTLINE 1.Defining Terms 2.Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 4.Analysis 5.Conclusion

4. 1. Defining Terms i.Arab Spring A series of movements for democratisation In the Middle East and North Africa From the beginning of 2011 (MOFA 2012a)

5. 1. Defining Terms ⅱ. End of History “I argued that liberal democracy may constitute the ‘end point of mankind’s ideological evolution’ and the ‘final form of human government,’ and as such constituted the ‘end of history.’” (Fukuyama 1992: 1)

6. 1. Defining Terms ⅲ. Liberal democracy A form of representative democracy Limiting elected representatives’ power Protecting civil LIBERTIES such as freedom of speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions (wiseGEEK 2012) c.f. democracy

7. 1. Defining Terms Do movements for democratisation which started in 2011 in Arab world result in establishment of liberal democracy, which is the final and ideal form of human government? Or does it end in no liberal democracy?

8. OUTLINE 1.Defining Terms 2.Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 4.Analysis 5.Conclusion

9. 2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections

10. 2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections

11. 2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections Egypt AFTER Free and fair elections (Mursi was elected. Jun 24, 2012) Limiting “elected” representatives’ power

12. 2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections Libya AFTER Shifting to Representative Democracy Shifting to Parliamentary System Free election (Jul 7,2012) A form of representative democracy

13. 2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 2.2 Case of Morocco― Revision of the Constitution AFTER The Constitution changed King’s power= limited The PM power= stronger Strengthening human rights Etc… (MOFA 2011) Protecting freedom of speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions

14. OUTLINE 1.Defining Terms 2.Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 4.Analysis 5.Conclusion and Future Research

15. 3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.1 Case of Syria

16. 3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.1 Case of Syria Syria is still under Al-Asad’s power. = Repression of political and human rights activism = Restrictions on freedom of expression = Torture = Bad treatment of the Kurds = Syria’s legacy of enforced disappearances (Human Rights Watch: 2010) Limiting elected representatives’ power Protecting freedom of speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions

17. 3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.2 Islamic Party Egypt’s new President Mohammed Mursi Muslim Brotherhood

18. 3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.2 Islamic Party

19. 3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.2 Islamic Party Islamism + liberal democracy = IMPOSSIBLE?? In Islamic world… Allah has sovereignty. Citizens never have one. Women’s LIBERTIES are restricted. ― Education, works, relations with men, … Protecting civil LIBERTIES such as freedom of speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions

20. OUTLINE 1.Defining Terms 2.Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 4.Analysis 5.Conclusion

21. 4. Analysis 2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections Good Evidence! But… Libya has not completely switched to representative democracy and parliamentary system.

22. 4. Analysis 2.2 Case of Morocco― Revision of the Constitution Static Change! Only the Constitution changed. Human rights― improved?? → Human Rights Watch report

23. 4. Analysis 3.1 Case of Syria O Absence of freedom of expression O Inhuman actions X There are elections before the revolution.

24. 4. Analysis 3.2 Islamic Party Policy of Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt) –Democracy, Freedom of speech, press, assembly, etc. Policy of Ennahdha –Improvement of women’s rights Islamism is not too strict in policies of these parties!

25. OUTLINE 1.Defining Terms 2.Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 4.Analysis 5.Conclusion

26. 5. Conclusion Arab Spring is… NOT evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ VS It’s too early to say that Arab revolution end in establishment of liberal democracy.

27. OUTLINE 1.Defining Terms 2.Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 3.Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ 4.Analysis 5.Conclusion

28. Arab Spring : Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ or not? B11504 Moeko Takizawa