1. New Puzzles in Supermassive Black Hole Evolution Charles L. Steinhardt IPMU, University of Tokyo October 14, 2010 Steinhardt & Elvis 2010, MNRAS, 402, 2637 (arxiv:0911.1355) Steinhardt & Elvis 2010 MNRAS, in press (arxiv:0911.3155) Steinhardt & Elvis 2010 MNRAS 406, L1 (arxiv:0912.0734) Steinhardt, Elvis, & Amarie 2010, submitted

2. The supermassive black hole (SMBH) lifecycle 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff 4) Quiescence (well, almost)

3. The supermassive black hole (SMBH) lifecycle 1) Seeding 2) Growth: quasar phase (Soltan) 3) Turnoff 4) Quiescence (well, almost)

4. The supermassive black hole (SMBH) lifecycle 1) Seeding 2) Growth: quasar phase (Soltan) 3) Turnoff (M-  relation) 4) Quiescence (well, almost)

5. Quasar Luminosity Function Richards et al. (2006)

6. How to obtain black hole masses from one SDSS spectrum Kepler’s Laws on broad emission line gas, so we need v,R. Doppler broadening of spectral line  velocity Supermassive black hole “mass ladder” Continuum luminosity  radius Comparison with reverbation masses implies ~0.4 dex uncertainty (more on this later!)

7. Quasar Mass Function Vestergaard et al. (2008)

9. Common beliefs about SMBHs All quasars can radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics

10. Existing data Existing methods Existing catalogs But new methods

11. Existing data Quasar catalog and spectra come from SDSS DR5 Existing methods Existing catalogs But new methods

12. Existing data Quasar catalog and spectra come from SDSS DR5 Virial Mass Estimation: Vestergaard/Peterson, McLure/Dunlop Existing methods Existing catalogs But new methods

13. Existing data Quasar catalog and spectra come from SDSS DR5 Virial Mass Estimation: Vestergaard/Peterson, McLure/Dunlop Actual mass estimates: Shen et al. (2008) Bolometric luminosities: Richards et al. (2006), Shen et al. (2008) Existing methods Existing catalogs But new methods

14. Existing data Quasar catalog and spectra come from SDSS DR5 Virial Mass Estimation: Vestergaard/Peterson, McLure/Dunlop Actual mass estimates: Shen et al. (2008) Bolometric luminosities: Richards et al. (2006), Shen et al. (2008) Time to think two- (or three-) dimensionally! Existing methods Existing catalogs But new methods

16. 0.2 < z < 0.4, H  ‏

17. SDSS Saturation Detection Limit Quasar Turnoff

18. 0.2 < z < 0.4, H  ‏ Detection Limit Quasar Turnoff

19. Virial mass estimation may be better than previously believed! Best-fit exponential decays: e-folding of 0.14-0.25 dex

20. 0.2 < z < 0.4, H  ‏ Detection Limit Quasar Turnoff

21. Quasars at 1.6 < z < 1.8

25. Best-fit sub-Eddington boundary slopes

26. Risaliti, Young, & Elvis (2009)

27. Common beliefs about SMBHs All quasars can radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics FALSE!

28. Expected L/L E distribution at different M, 0.2<z<0.4 Normalized to peak

29. The L/L E distribution at different M, 0.2<z<0.4 Normalized to peak

30. The L/L E distribution at different M, 0.2<z<0.4 Normalized to peak

31. Common beliefs about SMBHs Quasars radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics FALSE! TRUE!FALSE!

32. Common beliefs about SMBHs Quasars radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics FALSE! TRUE!FALSE! MAYBE NOT?

33. SDSS quasar colors at high mass, low luminosity

34. Emission line ratios change at high mass Highest Mass Intermediate Mass Lowest Mass 1.2-1.4 0.8-1.0

35. Common beliefs about SMBHs Quasars radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics FALSE! TRUE!FALSE! MAYBE NOT?

36. 3.0-3.2 Redshift range 2.0-2.2 1.6-1.8 1.2-1.4 0.8-1.0 Luminosity at fixed mass, different z

37. Common beliefs about SMBHs Quasars radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics FALSE! TRUE!FALSE! MAYBE NOT? FALSE!

38. 9.75-10.0 Log M (solar) 9.50-9.75 9.25-9.50 9.00-9.25 Comoving number density declines at different rates for different masses

39. Timescales  (M), N(t) = N 0 e -t/  (M)

40. Common beliefs about SMBHs Quasars radiate at the Eddington limit Quasars are “light-bulbs”: either on (at Eddington) or off Quasars “flicker” Luminosity is a proxy for mass Quasar dynamics come from host galaxy dynamics FALSE! TRUE!FALSE! MAYBE NOT? FALSE! SEEMINGLY FALSE!

41. k20% changes in: t0  M0 Track sensitivity to 20% changes in parameters

42. Sample Track: 1.8 < z < 2.0

43. Sample Track: 1.6 < z < 1.8

44. Sample Track: 1.4 < z < 1.6

45. Sample Track: 1.2 < z < 1.4

46. Sample Track: 1.0 < z < 1.2

47. Allowed track parameters at M 0 =8.5, t0=3.5 Gyr Quasars are typically on for just 1-2 Gyr!

48. Allowed parameters for tracks originating at all times

49. What would we ideally use to study quasar accretion? Mass and luminosity evolution of individual SMBH All relevant host galaxy parameters Only one snapshot SDSS cannot see the galaxy

50. What would we ideally use to study quasar accretion? Mass and luminosity evolution of individual SMBH All relevant host galaxy parameters Quasars ARE like light bulbs! SDSS cannot see the galaxy

51. What would we ideally use to study quasar accretion? Mass and luminosity evolution of individual SMBH All relevant host galaxy parameters Quasars ARE like light bulbs! There aren’t any!

52. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff 4) Quiescence (well, almost)

53. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity?

54. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent?

55. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass?

56. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles?

57. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent?

58. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff?

59. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized?

60. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy?

61. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation?

62. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously?

63. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously? How do the biggest, earliest central black holes form?

64. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously? How do the biggest, earliest central black holes form? Does this mean they are seeded before the first stars?

65. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously? How do the biggest, earliest central black holes form? Does this mean they are seeded before the first stars? Is it possible to make primordial black hole seeds?

66. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously? How do the biggest, earliest central black holes form? Does this mean they are seeded before the first stars? Is it possible to make primordial black hole seeds? Summary: We don’t know how supermassive black holes are born, how they grow, or why they die.

67. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously? How do the biggest, earliest central black holes form? Does this mean they are seeded before the first stars? Is it possible to make primordial black hole seeds? Summary: We don’t know how supermassive black holes are born, how they grow, or why they die.

68. The supermassive black hole lifecycle: new, open questions 1) Seeding 2) Growth 3) Turnoff Are all quasars at a characteristic luminosity? Why is evolution synchronous but time-dependent? Why is the accretion rate sublinear in mass? Can we use quasars as standard candles? Is turnoff permanent? Are “intrinsically red” quasars in the midst of turnoff? Why is turnoff synchronized? Why is turnoff but not growth linked to the host galaxy? What is the origin of the M-  relation? How are supermassive black holes seeded synchronously? How do the biggest, earliest central black holes form? Does this mean they are seeded before the first stars? Is it possible to make primordial black hole seeds? Summary: Something exciting is about to happen!  Steinhardt & Elvis 2010, MNRAS 402, 2637 (sub-Eddington boundary)  Steinhardt & Elvis 2010, MNRAS in press (Turnoff/Synchronization)  Steinhardt & Elvis 2010, MNRAS 406, L1 (Virial Masses)  Steinhardt, Elvis, & Amarie 2010, sub. MNRAS (tracks)