1. Peak Phosphorus 1 Naomi Radke, seecon international GmbH

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3. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Contents 1. Introduction 2. Methodology and Analysis 3. Impact 4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve 5. Future Management of Phosphorus 3

4. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Why Phosphorus? 4 1. Introduction All modern agricultural systems are dependent on continuous input of phosphorus fertiliser (P) as a nutrient for the plant. Thus, without phosphorus fertiliser we cannot produce food! Source: http://www.finegardening.com/how- to/articles/fertilizing-basics.aspx [Accessed: 06.03.2013]http://www.finegardening.com/how- to/articles/fertilizing-basics.aspx Source: FALL (2009) But, where does phosphorus come from...?

5. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Where does Phosphorus come from? 5 1. Introduction Source: CORDELL et al. (2009) Today, phosphorus fertiliser is primarily artificial, derived from phosphate rock. Source: http://permaculturenews.org/2009/01/14/phosphorus- matters/ [Accessed: 07.03.2013] http://permaculturenews.org/2009/01/14/phosphorus- matters/

6. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide 6 1. Introduction http://aquat1.ifas.ufl.edu/guide/hu mimpac.htmlhttp://aquat1.ifas.ufl.edu/guide/hu mimpac.html [Accessed: 29.09.2010] Source: ROSEMARIN et al. (2009)

7. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Of all artificial fertilisers phosphorus is the most limited Predictions for supply worldwide vary from 130 years max. to only 60 years 7 1. Introduction Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide Source: ECOSANRES (2008)

8. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info The Phosphorus Peak Phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource. Thus its derivation will have a PEAK 8 1. Introduction which occurs when 50% of the resource is used up from then on: production will market prices will exact time of global peak is disputed Currently, there are no considerable alternatives that could replace phosphate rock on the market!

9. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info The Phosphorus Peak Peak phosphorus is calculated based on estimated P in current world phosphate rock reserves. Area under Hubbert curve = depleted P 9 2. Methodology and Analysis The modelled Hubbert curve of phosphorus production and actual production (black dots) Source: CORDELL ET AL. (2009) Estimated peak of global production: in 2034

10. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Fertiliser Prices affect Food Affordability 10 3. Impact Fertiliser prices are bound to world market prices – how long can farmers from the “third world” afford them? Source: http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04262007/Ethanol-Fertilizer-Natural-Gas.html. [Accessed 31.05.2010]http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04262007/Ethanol-Fertilizer-Natural-Gas.html Fertiliser prices are rising continuously.

11. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info World Rock Phosphate Production vs. World Population 11 3. Impact World Population (  ) = World demand for phosphate fertilizers (  ) Future conflicts on the access to phosphate are likely, due to the limited reserves and the concentration of significant minable resources in a small number of countries. Source: WERNER et al. (n.y.)

12. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Global Food Production vs. World Population 12 3. Impact food crisis World food production increases relatively more than world population  When peak phosphorus occurs, it will lead to a Source: http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/events/archive/2011/paa/david_lam.htmlhttp://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/events/archive/2011/paa/david_lam.html

13. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info What is the Link to Peak Oil? 13 3. Impact Peak Phosphorus No replacement of phosphorus as fertiliser for food production Recyclable (within economic and technical limits) Peak Oil Replacement with other forms of energy possible (e.g. biofuels, renewable energies) Not recyclable Link! Oil price increased (due to proximity of peak oil)  demand for biofuel crop production increased  demand in phosphorus fertilisers increased  phosphorus peak comes closer

14. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Does a Peak truly exist for Scarce Resources? Sceptics of the peak claim that: one scarce resource can infinitely be replaced by another resource (according to neoclassical economic theory)  BUT: there is no replacement for phosphorus in order for plants to grow peaks exist but occur in the distant future STILL the Hubbert Curve with its peak gains traction as oil price drastically increased in the last years. 14 4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve

15. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info The Current Situation 15 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Mining and Processing Phosphate Rock Fertilizer application HarvestConsumptionExcretion Discharge into rivers/lakes NPK The current system is inefficient!  one-way street!

16. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Opportunities for Improving Efficiency 16 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Mining and Processing Phosphate Rock Fertilizer application HarvestConsumptionExcretion Discharge into rivers/lakes NPK closing the phosphorus cycle efficiency in mining and processing phosphate rock

17. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Examples of Closing the Phosphorus Cycle 17 Capturing human and animal excreta e.g. Urine diversion and faeces dehydration for application as fertilizer Capturing food and crop residues e.g. Composting Source: TILLEY et al. (2008) 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Source: GREEN PARENTHOOD (2010)

18. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta 18 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Case study large-scale (Adapted from :RICHERT (2009); HORT (n.y.)) Ecological Tenant-Owner’s Society, Stockholm, Sweden Housing complex with 32 flats Technology: urine-diverting dehydrating porcelain toilet with flush (0,1 l/flush) for urine and dry faeces collection Urine stored in a large tank under the house Urine transported to a farm 3-4 times a year where it is stored in large reservoirs and applied to the fields in spring

19. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta 19 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Case study small-scale (Adapted from TILLEY et al. (2008)) Allotment gardens in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines Toilets on 9 self-sustaining allotment gardens for 100 poor urban families technology: double-vault urine-diverting dehydrating toilet, waterless urinal from recycled plastic container for men Urine stored in container under the toilet house (can be used after 1 month storage), faeces (sawdust and lime added for drying) dries for one year in a vault under the toilet house diluted urine and dried faeces used for fertilizing the garden

20. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info Case study of Capturing food and crop residues 20 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Case study small-scale (Adapted from KINOBE et al. (2010)) Composting at households in Kitgum Town, Uganda 9 households composting their solid organic household waste (primarily food waste) self-built compost heaps with windrow method (see middle photo) 4-5 months until organic waste turns into compost. Compost can be used as fertilizer Steps: Source: KINOBE et al. (2010) preparation of wastedegradation of wastecuring and screening of compost

21. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info The Challenge: Time Frame... in order for the system to become more efficient, the infrastructure has to be given ! Currently, the time frame used in the markets (e.g. fertiliser market) and governmental institutions is short-term (5-10 years). Therefore, phosphorus scarcity is not yet addressed adequately in policies and market actions. A long-term (50-100 years) time frame is required in order to understand, manage adapt the current system in a timely way and thus to feed humanity without compromising the environment, livelihoods and economies. 21 4. Future Management of Phosphorus Think long-term!

22. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info The Challenge: Integrated Solutions 22 4. Future Management of Phosphorus... in order for the system to become more efficient, the infrastructure has to be given ! International institutional arrangements are INCONSISTENT with natural phosphorus cycle: Division Agricultural sector phosphorus= fertiliser commodity Water & Sanitation sector phosphorus = pollutant in wastewater Opportunity for integrated solutions! Source: RICHERT (2009)

23. Peak Phosphorus Find this presentation and more on: www.sswm.info.www.sswm.info 5. References CORDELL, D., DRANGERT, J.-O., WHITE, S. (2009): The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. In: Global Environmental Change 19, 292-305. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/CORDELL%20et%20al%202009%20%20The%20story%20of%20phosphorus.pdf [Accessed: 05.03.2013] http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/CORDELL%20et%20al%202009%20%20The%20story%20of%20phosphorus.pdf ECOSANRES. (2008): Closing the loop on phosphorus. (=EcoSanRes Factsheet, No. 4). Harare (Zimbabwe): Stockholm Environment Institute EcoSanRes Programme. Available at: http://www.ecosanres.org/factsheets.htm [Accessed: 27.09.2010]http://www.ecosanres.org/factsheets.htm FALL, A. (2009): Urban Urine Diversion Dehydration Toilets and Resuse Ouagadougou Brukina Faso - Draft. Eschborn: Sustainable Sanitation Alliance (SuSanA). Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-armenia-hayanist-school.pdf [Accessed: 07.03.2013]uhttp://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-armenia-hayanist-school.pdf GREEN PARENTHOOD (Editor) (2010): 11 Green New Years Resolutions For 2011. Available at: http://www.greenparenthood.com/blog/2010/12/29/11- green-new-years-resolutions-for-2011/ [Accessed: 30.03.2011]http://www.greenparenthood.com/blog/2010/12/29/11- green-new-years-resolutions-for-2011/ HORT, N. ; EKBO (Editor) (n.y.): Alternatives to Conventional Wastewater Systems. Stockholm: Ecological Tenant-Owners’ Society in Orhem. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/URINE%20LARGE%20SCALE%20Stockholm%20Sweden.pdf [Accessed: 11.03.2013]http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/URINE%20LARGE%20SCALE%20Stockholm%20Sweden.pdf KINOBE, J.; OLWENY, S.; NIWAGABA, C. (2010): Composting at Households in Kitgum Town, Uganda - Draft. Eschborn: Susana. Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-uganda-kitgum-town-composting-at-households-2010.pdf [Accessed: 11.03.2013] http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-uganda-kitgum-town-composting-at-households-2010.pdf PHADKE, S. (2009): Poo. Pune: Aman Setu Publication. Available at: http://www.susana.org/lang-en/library?view=ccbktypeitem&type=2&id=706 [Accessed: 05.03.2013]http://www.susana.org/lang-en/library?view=ccbktypeitem&type=2&id=706 RICHERT, A.; EcoSanRes (Editor); Richert Miljoekompetens (Editor) (2009): Large Scale Handling of Urine and Faeces. (pdf presentation). Stockholm: Stockholm Environmental Institute. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/RICHERT%202009%20Large%20scale%20application.pdf [Accessed: 11.03.2013] http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/RICHERT%202009%20Large%20scale%20application.pdf ROSEMARIN, A. BRUIJNE, DE G., CALDWELL, I. (2009): Peak Phosphorus. The next inconvenient truth. In: The Broker Magazine, Issue 15. Leiden: IDP.Available at: http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/Articles/Peak-phosphorus [Accessed: 11.03.2013]http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/Articles/Peak-phosphorus TILLEY, E.; LUETHI, C.; MOREL, A.; ZURBRUEGG, C.; SCHERTENLEIB, R. (2008): Compendium of Sanitation Systems and Technologies. Duebendorf and Geneva: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG). Available at: http://www.eawag.ch/forschung/sandec/publikationen/index [Accessed: 15.02.2010] http://www.eawag.ch/forschung/sandec/publikationen/index WERNER, C.,MANG, H. P., KLINGEL, F., BRACKEN, P. (n.y.): General Overview about ecosan. PowerPoint Presentation. Eschborn: Ecological Sanitation Programme of the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH

24. Peak Phosphorus 24 “Linking up Sustainable Sanitation, Water Management & Agriculture” SSWM is an initiative supported by: Created by: