1. Local and Regional Procurement Learning Alliance 7. Market Data MARKET SELECTION

2. Are (some of) the secondary data suitable? Objective: Identify markets from which to collect primary data –Approach: Compare what secondary data are available with what is needed Prepare a list of all distribution communities, all source communities, and major markets –Some communities have more than one market –In these cases, monitor the main retail market Within each market category, determine whether any candidate markets overlap with secondary data 2

3. Are the data similar (enough) to what the country office needs? Key requirements for matching secondary data to agency’s data needs: 1 st : Check commodity characteristics are the same (or similar) 2 nd : Confirm secondary prices are clearly identifiable as retail or wholesale and that you understand what definitions the agency is using 3 rd : Understand what sales units or volumes are collected for different trader types (e.g., $/kg; $/bucket; $/sack) 4 th : Try to make sure timing of price collection is the same

4. Are the data similar (enough) to what the country office needs cont.? Commodities with characteristics that do not precisely match your delivered product’s characteristics can perhaps be used as proxy data –Compare Color and size Processing / condition Produced within source country Quality (focus on observable quality differences, i.e., do prices vary by quality?) –Minor variations in quality, processing, color or size are fine Note and report the differences between the delivered commodity and the commodity with secondary data

5. Are (some of) the secondary data suitable? cont. Common errors associated with combining secondary and primary data are: –Comparing retail and wholesale series –Comparing raw commodities and processed products –Failing to convert prices to common currency and common unit of account –Using different frequency data or not matching up periods correctly –Failing to clarify whether prices are day-specific observations or period averages or whether prices are trader-specific or trader averages within a market 5

6. Part 1: Determine how many markets to monitor 6

7. Within each market category: take a sentinel site approach Rarely feasible to monitor all markets Sentinel sites are composed of a core set of markets, regularly monitored –Markets are selected by country offices, based first on overlap with secondary data and then selected by community type (remote or less remote) –Selected sentinel sites should be representative of communities –How to select sentinel sites within each market category is discussed below 7

8. How many markets within each market category to monitor? Market CategoryLimited- competitive procurement: Competitive and noncompetitive procurement, vouchers and cash: National or central markets in source countryUp to 5 National or central markets in recipient countryUp to 5 Sample of source marketsUp to 5None Sample of recipient marketsUp to 5 Counterfactuals for source markets*Up to 5None Counterfactuals for recipient markets*Up to 5 *Most pilots will not have counterfactuals 8

9. How many markets within each market category to monitor? The number of markets to monitor will vary by pilot The number of markets to monitor may vary by commodity –Some commodities have more secondary data than other commodities –Competitively procured commodities will need to be monitored across fewer markets compared to non- competitively procured commodities The following slides list number of markets by pilot type –The next section discusses how to select markets within each category 9

10. Recipient Country (up to 10 mkts) Central markets (up to 5): Capital city consumer market Major import/export market Largest market in each distribution area Urban or regional consumer markets Recipient/destination markets (up to 5): Remote: 2 - 3 mkts Less remote: 2 – 3 mkts Source Country (up to 5 mkts) Central markets (up to 5): Capital city consumer market Major import/export market Largest market in area(s) where procurement is most likely to occur Urban or regional consumer markets Smaller source markets: No additional markets required Regional Procurement Competitive, noncompetitive 10

11. Local Procurement Competitive, Non-competitive, Vouchers and Cash Source/Recipient Country (same) (up to 10 mkts) Central markets (up to 5): Capital city Largest market(s) in each distribution area Largest market(s) in each source area Major import / export market Consumer market in major urban area Recipient/destination markets (up to 5): Remote: 2 - 3 mkts Less remote: 2 – 3 mkts 11

12. Local Procurement Limited Competitive (e.g., contracting with smallholders) Source/Recipient Country (same) (up to 15 mkts) Central markets (up to 5): Consumer market in capital city Largest market(s) in each distribution area Largest market(s) in each source area Major import/export market Consumer market in major urban area Source markets (up to 5) Recipient markets (up to 5):Remote markets: 2-3Less remote markets: 2-3 OR, Ranked by probability of procurement: 5 12

13. Local or Regional Procurement Competitive, Vouchers and Cash, Limited Competitive with in-depth evaluation Counterfactual source markets (up to 5 mkts): Markets that share the following attributes with LRP source markets: Similar agro-ecological zones Roughly the same population Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market Counterfactual Markets (up to 10 mkts / communities) Counterfactual recipient communities (up to 5 communities): Communities that share the following attributes with LRP recipient communities: Similar agro-ecological zones Roughly the same population Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market Similar interventions to the matched recipient communities 13

14. Part 2: Select markets to monitor 14

15. Frequency of data collection All data ought to be collected at least monthly If secondary data are collected… –… monthly: collect primary data at least monthly, ideally on the same day or in the same week –…weekly or biweekly: try to collect primary data on same days as reflected in secondary data –… daily: select certain days of the month (or week) and collect primary data on those days as well If secondary data are not available, collect primary data at least monthly, preferably weekly or biweekly 15

16. Selecting central markets for local procurement, vouchers and cash In pilots where source and recipient countries are the same, several central markets will overlap. Include a total of five: –Consumer market in major capital city –Major import / export market –Largest market(s) in each distribution area –Largest market(s) in each source area Note: for competitive tenders, tracking additional, smaller markets beyond these five is unnecessary 16

17. Regional Procurement: selecting central markets in the source country List up to five major/central markets in source country, including: –Consumer market in capital city –Major import/export market –Largest market(s) in area where procurement is most likely to occur Non-competitive tenders: source market Competitive tenders: major urban market –Other central consumer markets in urban or regional centers 17

18. Regional Procurement: Selecting central markets in the recipient country List up to five major/central markets in recipient country, including: –Central consumer market in capital city –Major import/export market –Largest market(s) in each distribution area –Other central consumer markets in urban or regional centers 18

19. Comparing selected central markets with secondary data Compare your list of preferred source- and recipient- country central markets with the central markets reflected in your secondary data –Check whether commodities in secondary data are the commodities to be distributed –Check whether the data are retail and/or wholesale prices When secondary data are available for markets and commodities of interest: use these data to conserve time & resources 19

20. Source market selection for competitive and noncompetitive procurement and vouchers and cash Competitive procurement, noncompetitive procurement, vouchers and cash: monitor central markets only –Traders are likely to operate in major central markets –Central markets capture competitive prices –No need to monitor additional (smaller) source markets 20

21. Source market selection for limited competitive procurement Limited competitive procurement: –For each commodity, monitor the markets from where it is likely to be sourced –If different commodities are noncompetitively sourced from different markets, repeat below process for each commodity –Use table on following slide to track information for each commodity 21

22. Commodity name(s) Secondary wholesale price data available? Secondary retail price data available? RemoteLess Remote OR, likelihood of sourcing Source Market 1 Source Market 2 Source Market 3 … 1 st : list all likely source markets in column 1 2 nd : mark whether secondary retail and wholesale price data exist for each market 3 rd : assess each market’s remoteness: - Use access to paved roads or a daily market as the indicator - Remoteness is a proxy for spatial integration of remote communities with distant markets - Remoteness is a relative and context-specific concept - Greater remoteness often means higher risk of price variability OR 3 rd : when procuring from a subset of pre-identified markets, rank markets by probability of procurement (Check one) 22 Selecting source communities for limited competitive

23. Source market selection for limited competitive procurement cont. Objective: identify five source markets to monitor by commodity First, randomly select from those that have secondary data –Randomly select up to 2-3 markets from list of remote markets with secondary data –Randomly select up to 2-3 markets from list of less-remote markets with secondary data OR, rank by procurement probability, if procuring from a subset of pre-identified source markets Even incomplete secondary data is a starting point Next, if more markets are still needed to reach the total, randomly choose among remaining for primary data 23

24. Selecting recipient (destination) communities Similar approach as selecting source markets for noncompetitive procurement –Will not vary by commodity Fill in the table above –List all recipient communities –Identify communities as remote or less remote Secondary wholesale price data available? Secondary retail price data available? Remote Less Remote Recipient community 1 Recipient community 2 Recipient community 3 … 24 (Check one)

25. From the table, randomly select 2-3 communities with secondary data and are remote 2-3 communities with secondary data and are less remote If there are not enough communities with adequate secondary data, randomly select recipient communities for primary data collection, by category of remoteness In each community selected, monitor the main retail market 25 Selecting recipient (destination) communities

26. Selecting counterfactual source markets Only required in noncompetitive tendering processes with in-depth evaluation component Counterfactual source communities should not have other agency programs or projects in place Using secondary data, identify up to 5 markets that share the following characteristics with LRP source markets: –Similar agro-ecological zones –Roughly same population –Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market Wherever secondary data are missing, identify communities that have the same characteristics as the source markets, and collect primary data 26

27. Selecting counterfactual recipient communities Counterfactual recipient communities receive transoceanic food aid –Should have similar interventions as the matched community (e.g., both distribute in school feeding programs) Using secondary data, select up to 5 communities with roughly same characteristics as pilot communities –Similar agro-ecological zones –Roughly same population –Same distance to a paved road or same level of access to a primary (daily or weekly) market Follow same process as for counterfactual source communities to identify secondary data –Primary data collection may be necessary 27

28. Selecting Markets to Monitor Exercise: 1.Draw a map of your country 2.Identify on the map the markets where you are procuring each commodity; write a list of these markets 3.Identify on the map where you are distributing the commodities; write a list of these communities/markets