1. Preliminary approach

2. Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy to the World Energy Supply H.Nifenecker 1, D.Heuer 1, S.David 2, J.M.Loiseaux 1, J.M.Martin 3, O.Meplan 1,A.Nuttin 1 1 Institut des Sciences Nucléaires (IN2P3-CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) 53 ave. Des Martyrs F38026 Grenoble France 2 Institut de Physique Nucléaire d’Orsay, (IN2P3-CNRS, Université Paris XI) BP 1, F-91406 Orsay Cedex, France 3 Institut d’Economie et de Politique de l’Energie (CNRS,Université Joseph Fourier) BP47, F38040 Grenoble Cedex 09 France

3. Global Heating Challenge

4. (a) (b) Models for emission (a) and concentrations of CO2 (b)

5. Global Warming Present Emissions : 6GtC World population: 6 Billions Emission/capita: 1 Ton C Max. emission for temperature stabilization: 3GtC Objective for 2050 World Population(minimum) : 9 Billions Emission/capita: 0.33 Ton

6. Present emissions World average: 1 ton C/capita USA: 6 tons C/capita Germany : 3.5 tons C/capita France: 1.9 tons C/capita China: 0.7 tons C/capita

8. IIASA-WEC Scenarios A: strong growth –A1: Oil –A2: Coal –A3:Gaz B: Middle of the road C: Low energy intensity. High electricity –C1: Ren.+Gaz –C2: Ren.+Nuclear

12. Exhaustion of fossile reserves (Gtoe)

14. Nuclear Intensive Scenarios

17. Minimize use of fossiles for Electricity « Reasonable » implementation of Nuclear Power  OECD: 85%  Transition: 50%  China, India, Latin Am.: 30% 2030 3000 GWe Nuclear Power

18. 2050 1 st Scenario No more use of fossiles for electricity 2 nd Scenario Generalized use of Electrolytic Hydrogen Increased share of Electricity:  OECD: 90%  Transition: 85%  S.E.Asia: 80%  Rest of the World: 70% 4500 GWe Nuclear Power 9000 GWe Nuclear Power Manage 235 U Reserves

19. Scenario no coal no gas in 2050

25. Gestion of Natural Uranium Reserves

27. Breeding Cycles

28. U-Pu versus Th-U cycles U-Pu  Fast Spectra  Pu fuel  1.2 GWe reactors  Solid fuels  1 year cooling  25 years doubling time Th-U  Thermal Spectra  Pu, then 233 U fuel  1 GWe reactors  Molten Salts fuel  10 days fuel cycling  25 years doubling time