1. In the 2004, presidential election, of those Texans who voted for either Kerry or Bush, 62% voted for Bush and 38% for Kerry. Of the Massachusetts residents who voted for either Kerry or Bush, 37% voted for Bush and 63% for Kerry. Bill was a Kerry voter. He comes from either Texas or Massachusetts but I know nothing more about him. Is it more likely that he comes from Texas or from Massachusetts?

2. Ooops. I need to tell you that: in Texas there were 7.4 million voters for either Kerry or Bush and in Massachusetts there were only 2.9 million such voters.

3. Ooops. I need to tell you that in Texas there were 7.4 million voters for either Kerry or Bush and in Massachusetts there were 2.9 million such voters. Thus, of the Kerry voters from the two states, 61% came from Texas and only 39% came from Massachusetts.

4. So Bill is more likely a Texan.

5. Do regular folks understand that stuff?

6. The Great Debate: Kennedy, Nixon, and Television in the 1960 Race for the Presidency by Liette Gidlow Associate Professor of History, Bowling Green State University “The debates made Kennedy look like a winner. His practice of looking at the camera when answering the questions -- and not at the journalists who asked them, as Nixon did -- made viewers see him as someone who was talking directly to them and who gave them straight answers. Kennedy's performance showed not only that he was a knowledgeable and credible elected official, but also that he just plain looked better. The often repeated story -- which is in fact true -- is that polls taken after the first debate showed that most people who listened to it on the radio felt that Nixon had won, while most who watched it on television declared Kennedy the victor.” © The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History, 2004.The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History

7. Third Factor Availability of Television But in 1960, rural areas (where more Republicans lived) were less likely to have television than urban areas (where more Democrats lived). Couldn’t this predisposition to like one’s own party’s candidate explain the difference?

8. Do regular folks understand that stuff?

9. Maybe regular folks don’t but The National Institute on Drug Abuse should. From Marijuana: Facts Parents Need to Know, 2011: “ Question: Does using marijuana lead to other drugs? Answer: Long-term studies of high school students and their patterns of drug use show that very few young people use other drugs without first trying marijuana, alcohol, or tobacco. …” http://www.drugabuse.gov/MarijBroch/parentpg9-10N.html#Lead

10. So I will prepare my own manual. From A. K. Cline: Statistical Nonsense to Mislead Parents. (Never actually to be published) “ Question: Does using water lead to other drugs? Answer: Long-term studies of high school students and their patterns of drug use show that absolutely no young people use other drugs without first trying water. …”

11. That manual has such a gross abuse of statistics that one must wonder if it was done deliberately.

12. Hormone Replacement and Heart Disease In a widely-studied example, numerous epidemiological studies showed that women who were taking combined hormone replacement therapy (HRT) also had a lower- than-average incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), leading doctors to propose that HRT was protective against CHD.epidemiological studies hormone replacement therapycoronary heart disease

13. Hormone Replacement and Heart Disease In a widely-studied example, numerous epidemiological studies showed that women who were taking combined hormone replacement therapy (HRT) also had a lower- than-average incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), leading doctors to propose that HRT was protective against CHD. But controlled trials showed that HRT caused a small and significant increase in risk of CHD.epidemiological studies hormone replacement therapycoronary heart disease

14. Hormone Replacement and Heart Disease In a widely-studied example, numerous epidemiological studies showed that women who were taking combined hormone replacement therapy (HRT) also had a lower- than-average incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), leading doctors to propose that HRT was protective against CHD. But controlled trials showed that HRT caused a small and significant increase in risk of CHD. Re-analysis of the data showed that women undertaking HRT were more likely to be from higher socio-economic groups (ABC1), with better than average diet and exercise regimes. The two were coincident effects of a common cause, rather than cause and effect as had been supposed.epidemiological studies hormone replacement therapycoronary heart diseasesocio-economic groupsABC1

15. Use Fewer Firemen An important study has shown that the more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire it has been.

16. Use Fewer Firemen An important study has shown that the more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire it has been. Since clearly governments want smaller fires, it is recommended that fewer firemen be sent to fires.

17. Third Factor Problems 1. Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache. Sleepingshoesheadache Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache.

18. Third Factor Problems 1. Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache. Sleepingshoesheadache Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. 2. Young children who sleep with the light on are much more likely to develop myopia in later life.myopia

19. Third Factor Problems 1. Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache. Sleepingshoesheadache Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. 2. Young children who sleep with the light on are much more likely to develop myopia in later life.myopia 3. As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.ce creamdrowning Therefore, ice cream causes drowning.