1. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Waterwise – setting up for regional application Paul van Walsum

2. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Overview  Modelling  Input data  Setting up and using the model

3. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Multi-level modelling economy ecology hydrology complex reduction simple verification Integrated model

4. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Mathematical form of integrated model  x 1, x 2,... vector of decision variables x x i = 0 : no, you do not do it x i = 1 : yes, you do it  g 1 x 1 + g 2 x 2 +.. objective function gx --> max  a 11 x 1 + a 12 x 2 +.. <b 1 constraints Ax < b  a 21 x 1 + a 22 x 2 +.. <b 2

5. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Non-linear effects: piece-wise linear functions Area of potatoes (ha) Yield

6. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Modelling methods in optimization models  Embedding of submodel  “Repro”-method

7. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Embedding method  Includes model in the matrix  Disadvantage: high computational load  Advantage: More general, less customizing needed

8. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty “Repro”-method  Reproduces input-output responses  Advantage: small computational load  Disadvantage: requires calibration

9. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Regional influencing through GW & SW  pressure wave  droplet movement, including substances

10. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Waterwise meta-modelling components  Local perturbations (by land and water management actions) –experiments with simulation model (“repro-method”)  Regional transmissions (groundwater and surface water) –embedded for surface water quantity –repro for groundwater “wave” effects –embedded for water quality (GW & SW)  Effects (on economy, ecology, water) –repro

11. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Option table (example)

12. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: perturbations  Obtain through sensitivity analyses with simulation model  Example: peak flow contribution

13. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: perturbations (continued) Discharge (m 3 s -1 ) Water level (m)

14. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: transmissions  Cascade of linear reservoirs: –Storage ≤ capacity –Flow = linear function of storage + over flow  Unit hydrograph method

15. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: effects  Direct –Costs of undershooting desired minimum flows –Costs of flood damage  Indirect: –Yield of water management options that require water

16. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Groundwater quantity: overview

17. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Derivation of influence matrix  Use analytical formula (steady-state, multi-layer) Top view Model cell (i) j  a (i)/  p (j) i j IM =

18. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Calibration of influence matrix  H nature = f · [IM]  H agriculture

19. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Verification of influence matrix (1) without nonlinearity correction (2) using piece-wise function

20. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Groundwater quantity: effects  Derive tabular functions from sensitivity analyses

21. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Water quality  Fixed water flows (long-term averages)  Complete mixing of substances  Decay coefficients C N,g,i,2 C N,s,i layer 1 layer 2 cell i layer..

22. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Water quality:  Quantity changes can have significant impacts on water quality transmission  In that case run model repeatedly, known as SLP, “Successive Linear Programming”

23. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Input data

24. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Excursion through data: surface water quantity  Perturbations –measures –upstream flow effects  Surface water model –schematization of network -unit hydrograph  Effects - target flows - costs of deviations

25. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Perturbations  Measures = File wwsets.xls  Flow effects = file wsref.xls and wswm.xls

26. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water transmission  Files for schematization - kinr.csv and koutr.csv -kinj.csv and koutj.csv -typej.csv -binmlj.csv  Unit hydrograph

27. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Economic effects of flows  Target flows: - minimum flows - maximum flows  Costs –undershooting minimum targets –overshooting maximum targets

28. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Highlight 1: master control file  Wwcontrol.xls

29. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Highlight 2: files for restricting decision space

30. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Overview of setting up and using model

31. New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Procedure for setting up Waterwise  1. Start with the objectives!  2. Transmission links  3. Identify measures: submeasures Combinations  4. Make planning units  …