1. Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail Sarah Dochow Andrew May Callie Safley

2. Purpose Estimate Value Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources Investigate Factors – Permit – Ranger Presence – Maintenance

4. Theory Demand Curve –Created by putting trips on the horizontal axis and the travel cost on the vertical axis Consumer surplus –Region below the demand curve and above the average price level

5. Theory $ TRIPS CS ΔCS

6. Method Random Interviews –At or near Tanawha Trail and Raven’s Rock –Hypothetical questions used to establish shifts in the demand curve Demand curve –Derived from interview responses Confirmed confidentiality –Made results available if requested

7. Data Sample size = 38 people Average Number of Trips to Tanawha Trail –3.13 ± 0.67 Average Number of Trips to Raven’s Rock –1.907 ± 0.464

8. Data (cont.) Average Willingness to Pay for hiking permit –$7.59 –SD = $10.81 Average Travel Cost (.36*roundtrip distance) –$79.08 –SD = $113.76

9. Data (cont.) 63% were male participants Average Education level was 3.5 years of college Average age was 34 74% were willing to pay for a permit

10. Statistical Results We took the natural log of RP-trips and add one to get the values for the horizontal axis: ln(trips+1) We had travel cost on the vertical axis calculated by: (.36*roundtrip distance) We had three possible demand shifters but only one was statistically significant at the 92% level: (1-pvalue)= (1-.08)=.92

11. Demand Model Coefficient Standard Errort Stat Intercept0.850.1316.53 Demand Slope-0.00150.00062-2.40 Park Ranger0.0280.1710.165 Trail Maintenance0.3130.1711.83

12. Demand Model

13. Consumer Surplus Semi-log: –x/b; where x = Number of Trips, b = travel cost coefficient b = -.0015 Number of trips to Ravens Rock: x = 1.908; CS = 1.908/.0015 = $1272 Number of trips to Ravens Rock with the quality improvement: Δx = 1.36; ΔCS = 1.36/.0015 = $908

14. Aggregate CS Individual ΔCS = $908 Population of 5 counties = 903,568 We assume that 5% are hikers (Outdoor Recreation Participation Study) Aggregate ΔCS = 41,021,987.2

15. Analysis Major Factor –People are more concerned with trail maintenance than costs Bias –People live in these locations due to the fact that they enjoy activities, like hiking Improvement for further Research – Larger sample size – More diversity among survey participants