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OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC Marie Laga 23-2-2005 www.unaids.org.

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Presentation on theme: "OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC Marie Laga 23-2-2005 www.unaids.org."— Presentation transcript:

1 OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC Marie Laga 23-2-2005 www.unaids.org

2 Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV as of end 2004 Total: 39.4 (35.9 – 44.3) million Western & Central Europe 610 000 [480 000 – 760 000] North Africa & Middle East 540 000 [230 000 – 1.5 million] Sub-Saharan Africa 25.4 million [23.4 – 28.4 million] Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.4 million [920 000 – 2.1 million] South & South-East Asia 7.1 million [4.4 – 10.6 million] Oceania 35 000 [25 000 – 48 000] North America 1.0 million [540 000 – 1.6 million] Caribbean 440 000 [270 000 – 780 000] Latin America 1.7 million [1.3 – 2.2 million] East Asia 1.1 million [560 000 – 1.8 million] 00003-E-2 – December 2004

3 Global estimates for adults and children end 2004 People living with HIV New HIV infections in 2004 Deaths due to AIDS in 2004 39.4 million [35.9 – 44.3 million] 4.9 million [4.3 – 6.4 million] 3.1 million [2.8 – 3.5 million] 00003-E-3 – December 2004

4 About 14 000 new HIV infections a day in 2004 More than 95% are in low and middle income countries Almost 2000 are in children under 15 years of age About 12 000 are in persons aged 15 to 49 years, of whom: — almost 50% are women — about 50% are 15–24 year olds 00003-E-4 – December 2004

5 Trends in Number of People Living with HIV infection 1980 - 2002 by WHO Region Growth of the African epidemic slowed down since 1997 Changes in the African epidemic will greatly affect global numbers

6 HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% trend data unavailable outside region 1986 1991 19962001 Source: UNAIDS/WHO July 2002 Large differences in severity within Africa: Southern >> Eastern and Central > Western Source: UNAIDS/WHO July 2002

7 Trends in median HIV prevalence in the same antenatal sites by country and period, Southern Africa, 1997-2002 The epidemic is leveling off at extremely high levels of prevalence

8 HIV prevalence by age and sex, Zambia DHS 2001-02 Women get infected earlier than men, often under 25 years

9 Kisumu: Multicentre Study *Buve et al, AIDS 2001

10 Deaths at ages 15-34 South Africa: 1980-2025 (Estimated and projected ) 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Deaths (thousands) Without AIDS With AIDS 1980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-2025

11 Lifetime risk of AIDS death for 15-year-old boys, assuming unchanged or halved risk of becoming infected with HIV, selected countries Source: Zaba B, 2000 (unpublished data) Current adult HIV prevalence rate Burkina Faso Cambodia Côte d’Ivoire Kenya South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe Botswana Burkina Faso Cambodia Côte d’Ivoire Kenya South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe Botswana 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35% 40% Risk of dying of AIDS current level of risk maintained risk halved over next 15 years

12 Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005 with high HIV prevalence: Zimbabwe South Africa Botswana with low HIV prevalence: Madagascar Senegal Mali 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Life expectancy (years) 1950– 1955 1955- 1960 1960- 1965 1965- 1970 1970- 1975 1975- 1980 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 1995- 2000 2000- 2005

13 AIDS orphans in South Africa

14 HIV prevalence and deaths due to AIDS 2004 Living with HIV % of total Death due to AIDS % Sub-saharan Africa 25.4 mill64%2.3 mill74% Asia8.2 mill21%541.00017% Latin America1.7 mill4%95.0003% West Eur/US1.6 mill4%22.5000.7% Eastern Europe1.4 mill3.6%60.0002% Total39.4 million3.1 million

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16 The Cycle of HIV Disease 1. Incidence of HIV Infection 3. Incidence AIDS 2. Prevalence of HIV Infection 4. Prevalence of AIDS 5. Mortality from AIDS

17 Prevention of new HIV infections ? No preventive vaccine in near future <20% of people at risk have access to proven HIV prevention interventions –condom programs –needle exchange Contextual factors such as stigma and gender inequality remain major barriers


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