1. StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah © Health Index: The Health of Nigerians

2. According to UNICEF; Life expectancy of Nigerians at birth (years) in 2010 was 51. Falls short of Ghana’s (59.6); Malaysia’s (74.2); Brazil’s (72.5); Saudi Arabia’s (70.9), and misery-prone Haiti’s (59.1). World Economic Forum in its Global Competitive Index ranks Nigeria 140 of 142 countries in Health and Primary Education. This statistically implies there are less healthy people in Nigeria compared to the rest of the World. The health of the Citizens determines greatly the Wealth of the Nation. How can we explain this if the governing class seek medical attention abroad while the governed are left to their fate? Do we have fewer people showing interest in studying Medical courses or it is just one of those gray areas of governance (like Power – Electricity) that the dividend of democracy is yet to come to bare for the masses? This study is undertaken to reveal the root cause of the present state of Nigeria health sector using JAMB 2012 applicants’ choices.

3. Methodology of Study: JAMB 2011 and 2012 data will be used for analysis; with application for Medicine & Surgery as subject of focus. Admission data from some schools will also be used to calculate statistics of interest as itemized below: -How much interest is shown by Applicant’s to study Medicine & Surgery? -What is the of Application to Admission ratio / % ? -What is the estimate Doctors to Patients ratio?

4. Medicine & Surgery as Course of Study 2011: Medicine & Surgery Applicants InstitutionABUOAUUNNUNILAGUNIBENUNIPORTUIUNILORINUNICALNAUUNIMAIDUDUS Count12,2738,6748,5497,9497,8217,6147,1076,5165,1584,4264,2704,088 InstitutionBAYEROUNIJOSUNIUYOLAUTECHDELSUAAUAUNADBSUNDUKSAABSUUNIABUJA Count4,0573,7743,1472,7662,3411,7631,7341,4481,2731,2321,108819 InstitutionEVANSEBSUOSUNLASUOOUESUTECHGSUMADONNABOWENBINGHAMIGBINEDON Count8177757387354043512742021958547 OwnerTotal Federal15 Private4 State16

5. Medicine & Surgery as Course of Study 2012: Medicine & Surgery Applicants InstitutionUNNOAUUNILORINUNIBENUNILAGUIABUNAUUNICALUDUUNIJOSBAYERO Count10,1319,1848,6947,9327,8787,6286,7735,9145,5354,8714,2704,244 InstitutionUNIUYOUNIPORTEVANSDELSUUNIMAIDLAUTECHNDUABSUKSUUNIABUJABSUUNAD Count3,8613,6252,8582,6422,5662,2812,1041,8011,5901,5331,2711,241 InstitutionAAUAOSUNEBSULASUOOUESUTECHANSUMADONNABOWENIGBINEDIONAFE Count1,1378807736686075623123082717517

6. Total Applicants No.YearTotal Count 12011114,530 22012116,037 With a population of approximately 158,000,000 (2011) and 160,000,000 (2012), assuming all that applied to study Medicine & Surgery were admitted: No.YearTotal CountDoctor: Patient 12011114,5301 : 1380 22012116,0371 : 1379 *In reality, an extrapolated population figure of Nigeria in 7years time should be used with this JAMB figures – more so that Nigeria education system is unpredictable

7. JAMB Application and Admission ratio (2000 – 2007) Application FACULTY200020022003200520062007 Medical Sciences73,388150,679170,813161,755146,306165,693 Total applicants416,381994,3801,132,392916,371803,472911,653 Admission FACULTY200020022003200520062007 Medical Sciences3,8623,8447,2255,0716,0667,138 Total admitted45,76651,845105,40177,08588,524107,370 % of Medical Sciences Admitted FACULTY200020022003200520062007 Medical Sciences5.262.554.233.134.154.31 Medical Sciences comprises of courses such as Dental Surgery, Nursing, Optometry, Physiology, Pharmacy, Radiography, Pharmacology, etc. Medicine & Surgery remains the most sought-after. Nevertheless, the number of candidates admitted is a great distance from expected doctors fit to cater for the health challenges of Nigerians.

8. Case Study – Application : Admission ratio On the average less than 4% of applicants are admitted to study Medicine & surgery yearly. By extrapolation; 4% of total applicants: No.InstitutionYearApplicantsAdmitted% of Admitted 1UNILAG20117,9492583.25% 2BAYERO20114,0571142.81% 3UNN20118,5491411.65% No.YearTotal Count4% of Applicants 12011114,5304,581 22012116,0374,641 This implies less than 5,000 applicants are admitted yearly in the whole of Nigerian universities to study Medicine & Surgery

9. Recommended Doctors : Patient ratio The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends 1:600 Doctor-Patient ratio. Nigeria is estimated to currently be on about 1:3500, Doctor-Patient ratio. Recent strike by Doctors working under the Lagos State government has put the above Doctor-Patient ratio to question. See the data below: Year2004200520062007200820092012 Doctors307375468645806875788 Lagos Bureau of Statistics,Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget (2010) Lagos state is the most populated state and the commercial hub of Nigeria; with 788 Doctors for 18million people (beside Doctors working in private establishments), Doctor-Patient ratio is 1:22,843 If Lagos state goes by these figures, Imagine other less developed States!

10. Conclusion:  Over 100,000 qualified applicants show interest in studying Medicine & Surgery yearly, less than 5% are offered admission  Not all that are enrolled eventually graduate as Doctors  Some who graduated never practiced, so less medical doctors who graduate actually practice as Doctors  Universities cannot admit more than certain quota based on NUC policy  This is often due to lack of infrastructures in our Universities  The government spend less on Education, same with the Health sector  More Nigerian Doctors travel abroad to work because of better work environment and remuneration Doctors go on strike like normal employees!!!

11. From all indication, the onus lies on the Government – Federal, State and Local. Funding Education appropriately would increase the number of applicants admitted to study Medicine & Surgery which will also increase the number of Medical Graduates as well as reduce the Doctor-Patient ratio. Good health is basic to survival!

12. StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah © Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah Data source: -The World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/https://www.weforum.org/ -Lagos Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget (2010) Analysis by: Wale Micaiah e: walegate@yahoo.comwalegate@yahoo.com m: 08078001800 b: walemicaiah.blog.com w. www.statisense.info