1. DPG Main 5 May 2015

2. 1. The big picture 2. The hot topics 3. The reforms/dialogue

4. Tanzania, 1996-2013 Aggregate Indicator: Voice & Accountabillity Individual Indicators used to construct Voice & Accountability Code SourceWebsite199619982000200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 AFRAfrobarometerhttp://www.afrobarometer.org.. 0.700.700.700.700.700.700.910.910.910.910.910.910.850.850.850.850.850.850.780.780.780.780.780.78 BTIBertelsmann Transformation Indexhttp://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/.. 0.500.500.620.620.620.620.660.660.660.660.580.580.580.580.610.610.610.610.610.610.590.590.590.59 CCRFreedom House Countries at the Crossroadshttp://www.freedomhouse.org.. 0.550.550.590.590.590.590.590.590.590.590.560.560.560.560.560.560.560.56 EIUEconomist Intelligence Unithttp://www.eiu.com 0.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.190.450.450.450.450.450.450.450.450.470.470.470.470.480.480.480.48 FRHFreedom Househttp://www.freedomhouse.org 0.390.390.440.440.500.500.570.570.560.560.550.550.560.560.550.550.560.560.560.560.560.560.620.620.610.610.610.610.590.59 GCSWorld Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Surveyhttp://www.weforum.org.. 0.510.510.470.470.540.540.630.630.550.550.480.480.510.510.470.470.530.530.470.470.410.41 GIIGlobal Integrity Indexhttp://www.globalintegrity.org/.. 0.450.450.500.500.500.500.500.500.440.440.440.440.440.440.310.31 GWPGWPGallup World Pollhttp://www.gallupworldpoll.com.. 0.640.640.630.630.610.610.380.380.510.510.470.470.360.360.360.36 HUMCingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Databasehttp://www.humanrightsdata.com 0.440.440.310.310.190.190.440.440.440.440.250.250.250.250.380.380.690.690.440.440.440.440.560.560.500.500.500.500.500.50 IFDIFAD Rural Sector Performance Assessmentshttp://www.ifad.org.. 0.690.690.660.660.690.690.710.710.730.730.730.730.730.730.680.680.600.600.700.70 IPDInstitutional Profiles Databasehttp://www.cepii.fr/.. 0.640.640.640.640.640.640.670.670.670.67 IRPIREEP African Electoral Indexhttp://www.ireep.org.. 0.460.460.460.460.460.460.460.460.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.460.460.460.460.460.460.460.46 LBOLatinobarometrohttp://www.latinobarometro.org.. MSIIREX Media Sustainability Indexhttp://www.irex.org.. 0.550.550.550.550.610.610.590.590.600.600.600.600.620.620.620.620.620.62 OBIInternational Budget Project Open Budget Indexhttp://www.internationalbudget.org/.. 0.480.480.480.480.360.360.360.360.450.450.450.450.470.470.470.470.470.47 PRSPolitical Risk Services International Country Risk Guidehttp://www.prsgroup.com 0.500.500.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.670.67 RSFReporters Without Borders Press Freedom Indexhttp://www.rsf.org.. 0.790.790.850.850.870.870.840.840.820.820.840.840.850.850.870.870.880.880.890.890.720.720.720.72 VABVanderbilt University Americas Barometer Surveyhttp://www.lapopsurveys.org.. WCYInstitute for management & development World Competitiveness Yearbookhttp://www.imd.ch.. WJPWorld Justice Projecthttp://www.worldjusticeproject.org... 0.490.490.480.48 WMOGlobal Insight Business Conditions and Risk Indicatorshttp://www.globalinsight.com 0.380.38..0.380.380.310.310.310.310.360.360.380.380.440.440.440.440.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.50 25.5 31.3 32.2 38.9 38.5 34.1 38.9 40.4 44.7 43.3 43.6 44.1 43.1 41.7 10 0 20 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 199619982000200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 P er c e n tile R a n k

5. Tanzania, 1996-2013 Aggregate Indicator: Political Stability and Absence of Violence Individual Indicators used to construct Political Stability and Absence of Violence Code EIU Economist Intelligence Unit SourceWebsite1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 http://www.eiu.com http://www.weforum.org http://www.humanrightsdata.com https://worldcue.ijet.com/tic/login.jsp http://www.cepii.fr/ http://www.prsgroup.com http://www.imd.ch http://www.worldjusticeproject.org. http://www.globalinsight.com 0.45 0.50 0.35 0.50 0.50 0.45 0.45 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55........0.41 0.61 0.64 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.82 0.66 0.60 0.68 0.70 0.63 0.63 0.50 0.78 0.50 0.53 0.50 0.66 0.53 0.53 0.69 0.66 0.53 0.53 0.53..........0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50....................0.78 0.78 0.78 0.67 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.76 0.76 0.78 0.76 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.71........................................................1.00 1.00 0.38 0.38 0.50 0.50 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.63 GCS World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Survey HUM Cingranelli-Richards Human Rights Database & Political Terror Scale IJTiJET Country Security Risk Ratings IPD Institutional Profiles Database PRS Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide WCY Institute for management & development World Competitiveness Yearbook WJP World Justice Project WMO Global Insight Business Conditions and Risk Indicators 22.6 28.8 22.6 34.1 21.2 24.5 28.4 33.2 32.7 37.8 47.9 46.2 46.4 41.2 10 0 20 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 1996199619982000200220032004200420052006200620072008200820092010201120122013 P ercentile R ank

6. Tanzania, 1996-2013 Aggregate Indicator: Government Effectiveness Individual Indicators used to construct Government Effectiveness 24.4 39.5 40.5 41.0 42.4 41.5 43.4 42.7 38.8 33.5 31.3 28.7 29.2 10 0 20 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 199619961998199820002000200220022003200320042004200520052006200620072007200820082009200920102010201120112012201220132013 Percentile Rank.............................. 0.38 0.38 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.44 WCY Institute for management & development World Competitiveness Yearbook WMO Global Insight Business Conditions and Risk Indicators http://www.imd.ch http://www.globalinsight.com Code SourceWebsite199619982000200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 ADBAfrican Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessmentshttp://cpia.afdb.org/..NP 0.500.500.570.570.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.650.65 AFRAfrobarometerhttp://www.afrobarometer.org.. 0.750.750.750.750.750.750.800.800.800.800.800.800.720.720.720.720.720.720.490.490.490.490.490.49 ASDAsian Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessmentshttp://www.adb.org/.. BPSBusiness Enterprise Environment Surveyhttp://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance.. BTIBertelsmann Transformation Indexhttp://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/.. 0.520.520.570.570.570.570.590.590.590.590.540.540.540.540.540.540.540.540.540.540.510.510.510.51 EIUEconomist Intelligence Unithttp://www.eiu.com 0.250.250.380.380.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.25 GCSWorld Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Surveyhttp://www.weforum.org.. 0.310.310.240.240.300.300.290.290.320.320.210.210.280.280.350.350.360.360.320.320.280.28 GWPGWPGallup World Pollhttp://www.gallupworldpoll.com.. 0.410.410.440.440.430.430.460.460.340.340.430.430.340.340.380.38 IFDIFAD Rural Sector Performance Assessmentshttp://www.ifad.org.. 0.600.600.670.670.670.670.670.670.750.750.750.750.750.750.650.650.550.550.600.60 IPDInstitutional Profiles Databasehttp://www.cepii.fr/.. 0.060.060.060.060.060.060.290.290.290.29 LBOLatinobarometrohttp://www.latinobarometro.org.. PIAWorld Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessmentshttp://www.worldbank.org..NP 0.600.600.600.600.570.570.530.530.530.530.500.500.470.470.470.470.500.50 PRSPolitical Risk Services International Country Risk Guidehttp://www.prsgroup.com 0.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.25

7. Individual Indicators used to construct Regulatory Quality Code Source ADB African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments ASD Asian Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments BPS Business Enterprise Environment Survey BTIBertelsmann Transformation Index EBR European Bank for Reconstruction & Development Transition Report EIU Economist Intelligence Unit GCS World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Survey HER Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom Website1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 http://cpia.afdb.org/ http://www.adb.org/ http://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance http://www.bertelsmann-transformation- index.de/http://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance http://www.bertelsmann-transformation- index.de/ http://www.ebrd.orghttp://www.ebrd.org http://www.eiu.com http://www.weforum.org http://www.heritage.org http://www.ifad.org http://www.cepii.fr/ http://www.worldbank.org..NPNPNPNP0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.58 0.60....................................0.25 0.40 0.40 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.55.............................. 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45........0.46 0.51 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.46 0.49 0.45 0.50 0.46 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.55 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.53 0.55..........0.67 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.58 0.62 0.62 0.56 0.51 0.58....................0.43 0.43 0.43 0.56 0.56..NPNPNPNPNP0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 IFD IFAD Rural Sector Performance Assessments IPD Institutional Profiles Database PIA World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments Tanzania, 1996-2013 Aggregate Indicator: Regulatory Quality 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 33.3 39.7 31.9 33.3 36.3 36.8 41.2 38.3 34.5 36.4 36.8 37.0 36.8 40.7 20 10 0 30 199619982000200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 Percentile Rank 0.45.. 0.44 0.64.. 0.44 0.64.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.46 0.59.. 0.44 0.50.. 0.50.. 0.50.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.44 0.59.. 0.44 0.44 0.59.. 0.43 0.44 PRS Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide WCY Institute for management & development World Competitiveness Yearbook WJP World Justice Project WMO Global Insight Business Conditions and Risk Indicators http://www.prsgroup.com http://www.imd.ch http://www.worldjusticeproject.org. http://www.globalinsight.com

8. Individual Indicators used to construct Rule of Law Code Source ADB African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments AFR Afrobarometer ASD Asian Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments BPS Business Enterprise Environment Survey BTIBertelsmann Transformation Index CCR Freedom House Countries at the Crossroads EIU Economist Intelligence Unit FRH Freedom House GCS World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Survey GIIGlobal Integrity Index Website1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 http://cpia.afdb.org/ http://www.afrobarometer.org http://www.adb.org/ http://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance http://www.bertelsmann-transformation- index.de/http://cpia.afdb.org/ http://www.afrobarometer.org http://www.adb.org/ http://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance http://www.bertelsmann-transformation- index.de/ http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.eiu.com http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.weforum.org http://www.globalintegrity.org/http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.eiu.com http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.weforum.org http://www.globalintegrity.org/..NPNPNPNP0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.53 0.53......0.75 0.75 0.75 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.74 0.74 0.74....................................0.50 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.55 0.55............0.48 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.31......................................0.51 0.46 0.50 0.45 0.51 0.46 0.51 0.48 0.49 0.47 0.48..............0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.56 Tanzania, 1996-2013 Aggregate Indicator: Rule of Law 100 90 80 70 60 50 43.5 43.1 39.7 41.1 44.0 42.6 45.5 41.6 45.0 44.2 39.3 38.4 36.2 35.5 38.9 0 30 20 10 40 199619961998199820002000200220022003200320042004200520052006200620072007200820082009200920102010201120112012201220132013 Pe r cen t ile Rank.... 0.50.... 0.50.... 0.50 0.50.... 0.50 0.33.... 0.50 0.67.... 0.50 0.67.... 0.50 0.67.... 0.50 0.67.... 0.56 0.67.... 0.56 0.33.... 0.50 0.33.... 0.50 0.67.... 0.50 0.33.... 0.51 0.50 0.33.... 0.48 0.44 TPR US State Department Trafficking in People report VAB Vanderbilt University Americas Barometer Survey WCY Institute for management & development World Competitiveness Yearbook WJP World Justice Project WMO Global Insight Business Conditions and Risk Indicators http://www.state.gov/g/tip/rls/tiprpt http://www.lapopsurveys.org http://www.imd.ch http://www.worldjusticeproject.org. http://www.globalinsight.com GWP Gallup World Pollhttp://www.gallupworldpoll.com..http://www.gallupworldpoll.com.. 0.740.740.780.780.760.760.620.620.670.670.670.670.580.580.590.59 HERHeritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedomhttp://www.heritage.org 0.500.500.500.500.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.300.30 HUMCingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Databasehttp://www.humanrightsdata.com 0.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 IFDIFAD Rural Sector Performance Assessmentshttp://www.ifad.org.. 0.710.710.660.660.660.660.660.660.750.750.730.730.730.730.730.730.630.630.630.63 IPDInstitutional Profiles Databasehttp://www.cepii.fr/.. 0.400.400.400.400.400.400.500.500.500.50 LBOLatinobarometrohttp://www.latinobarometro.org.. PIAWorld Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessmentshttp://www.worldbank.org..NP 0.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.500.50 PRSPolitical Risk Services International Country Risk Guidehttp://www.prsgroup.com 0.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.830.83

9. Tanzania, 1996-2013 Aggregate Indicator: Control of Corruption Individual Indicators used to construct Control of Corruption Code Source ADB African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments AFR Afrobarometer ASD Asian Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments BPS Business Enterprise Environment Survey BTIBertelsmann Transformation Index CCR Freedom House Countries at the Crossroads EIU Economist Intelligence Unit FRH Freedom House GCB Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer Survey GCS World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Survey GIIGlobal Integrity Index Website1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 http://cpia.afdb.org/ http://www.afrobarometer.org http://www.adb.org/ http://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance http://www.bertelsmann-transformation- index.de/http://cpia.afdb.org/ http://www.afrobarometer.org http://www.adb.org/ http://www.worldbank.org/eca/governance http://www.bertelsmann-transformation- index.de/ http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.eiu.com http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.transparency.org http://www.weforum.org http://www.globalintegrity.org/http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.eiu.com http://www.freedomhouse.org http://www.transparency.org http://www.weforum.org http://www.globalintegrity.org/..NPNPNPNP0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.53......0.66 0.66 0.66 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.71 0.71 0.71......................................0.35 0.35 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.40............0.40 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25....................................................0.43 0.43 0.37 0.37........0.44 0.38 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.32 0.36 0.33 0.41 0.33 0.28..............0.45 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.40 15.1 14.1 20.5 25.4 32.2 30.7 51.2 46.1 41.7 39.2 34.8 29.4 23.9 22.5 0 10 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 199619961998199820002000200220022003200320042004200520052006200620072007200820082009200920102011201020112012201220132013 Pe r cen til e Rank 0.50.... 0.25 0.33.... 0.25 0.33.... 0.25 0.33.... 0.25 0.33.... 0.25 0.33.... 0.34 0.33.... 0.25 0.42.... 0.50 0.58.... 0.25 0.50.... 0.25 0.50.... 0.25 0.42.... 0.25 0.42.... 0.13 0.33.... 0.41 0.13 0.33.... 0.38 0.13 PRS Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide VAB Vanderbilt University Americas Barometer Survey WCY Institute for management & development World Competitiveness Yearbook WJP World Justice Project WMO Global Insight Business Conditions and Risk Indicators http://www.prsgroup.com http://www.lapopsurveys.org http://www.imd.ch http://www.worldjusticeproject.org. http://www.globalinsight.com GWP Gallup World Pollhttp://www.gallupworldpoll.com..http://www.gallupworldpoll.com.. 0.490.490.370.370.410.410.090.090.100.100.100.100.060.060.120.12 IFDIFAD Rural Sector Performance Assessmentshttp://www.ifad.org.. 0.580.580.600.600.600.600.600.600.750.750.700.700.700.700.600.600.500.500.600.60 IPDInstitutional Profiles Databasehttp://www.cepii.fr/.. 0.220.220.220.220.220.220.000.000.000.00 LBOLatinobarometrohttp://www.latinobarometro.org.. PIAWorld Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessmentshttp://www.worldbank.org..NP 0.500.500.500.500.500.500.400.400.400.400.300.300.400.400.400.400.400.40 PRCPolitical Economic Risk Consultancy Corruption in Asiahttp://www.asiarisk.com/..

10.  Modest wave of political economy analysis, power analysis  Looks for incentives and “rules of the game”  Finds “rent-seeking”, “elite settlements”, “dominant-party system”, “limited access order” as structuring factors

11. ElectionsOpen government

12. FeasibilitySecurity PredictabilityParticipation Legitimacy

14. Legal Sector Reform, Public Financial Management Reform Program Public Sector Reform Program Local Government Reform Program Related initiatives:  TEITI  NACSAP  BRN  OGP  GBS  UNDAP

16.  Uncertainty  Silence  Other initiatives