1. Climate Change and Consequences in the Intra-Americas Region(IAR) Dr. Jorge E. González NOAA-CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY Dr. Moises Angeles Malaspina & Dr. Nathan Hosannah Post-Docs, The City College of New York, New York, NY Jhon Ibsen Web Developer, The City College of New York, New York, NY Dr Daniel E. Comarazamy NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SOCD, The City College of New York, New York, NY Equisha Glenn NOAA-CREST Fellow, The City College of New York, New York, NY Pablo Ortiz Mechanical Engineering Dept., The City College of New York, New York, NY Coastal Environmental Research Group cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu

2. Guiding Questions What is Caribbean climate? How is the CC changing? What are the regional, local, and societal implications of these changes? How the CC will change in the future? What future research is needed?

3. Factors to be considered for climate studies in the Intra-Americas Region Gamble et al., 2008 Sea Surface Temperature

4. IAR Climate Overview Mid-Summer Drought (MSD) – Cause(s) for MSD variability is still unknown – More pronounced in western Caribbean – Potential link to Saharan dust contribution Precipitation in the Caribbean – Match global average changes – Annual and decadal variability – Related to SSTs Bimodal Precipitation Trend: o Dry Season: Dec - Mar o Early Rainfall: April - June o Late Rainfall: Aug - Nov Mid-Summer Drought Slight increase in LRS precipitation within past 15 years GPCP monthly precipitation data 1) Angeles et al.,2010; 2) Magaña et al.,2009; 3) Gamble et al., 2008; 4) Comarazamy et al 2006; 5) Frich et al., 2002; 6) Peterson et al., 2002; 7) IPCC, 2007; 8) Spence et al., 2004; 9) Stephenson et al., 2007

5. Observed Caribbean Climatology SST observed climatology from Reynolds-Smith data, 1982-2003 for (a) DS, (b) ERS, (c) LRS and Climatological Rainfall from CPC-Merged Analysis, 1979-2003 for (d) DS, (e) ERS and (f) LRS. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)(f) DRY SEASON EARLY RAINFALL SEASON LATE RAINFALL SEASON

6. Aerosols and Caribbean Bi-Modal

7. HOW IS THE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGING? Guiding Questions

8. IAR sensitive to global climate changes Caribbean SSTs warming similar to global averages Warming varies throughout the region Recent Detected Changes of SSTs in the IAR 0.015°C per year

9. Recent Detected Changes of SSTs in the IAR Left-Daily Spatial Variability Right-Daily Anomalies

10. Early Rainfall Season Late Rainfall Season Dry Season SSTs Seasonal Trends (1982-2012) Over the past 30 years:  Warming (significant) Gulf Coast Northeast of South America  Cooling Around coast of Florida  Increasing trend in DS not sufficient to motivate convection, leads to drying trend

11. Early Rainfall Season Late Rainfall Season Dry Season SSTs Seasonal Trends (1982-2012) Regions of greatest warming have high cross-correlation with precipitation in that same area ERS – 0.78 LRS – 0.79

12. Regional Changes in Upper Air Conditions Large-scale temperature (˚C) and near surface (between the 1000-700mb pressure levels) wind magnitude (m s-1) change in the Caribbean basin from 1955-59 to 2000-04. Calculated from the NCEP Reanalysis 2.5˚ resolution data averaged at 02 and 14 LST, the two closest times in the 4-hourly data to the local overnight low and daytime high temperatures, during the 3-month Caribbean ERS (Comarazamy et al., 2011). Horizontal Temp.Vertical Temp.Avg Trade Wind Magnitude CLLJ

13. WHAT ARE THE REGIONAL, LOCAL, AND SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CHANGES? Guiding Questions

14. Drought Index in the Caribbean Region  Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)  It is a statistical tool defined to monitor drought at a given time scale and rainfall station. This index can also be used to monitor periods of anomalous wet events.  3-month SPI: reflects short/medium moisture condition. In agriculture gives an indication of Soil Moisture condition at the growing season. SPIClassification > 2.0Extremely wet 1.5 to 1.99Very wet 1.0 to 1.49Moderately wet 0 to 0.99Mildly wet 0 to -0.99Mild drought -1 to -1.49Moderate drought -1.5 to -1.99Severe drought < -2.0Extreme drought

15. Drought Index in the Caribbean Region  SPI 3 month window size for June 1994 shows severe to extreme drought in Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.  Central America also have extreme drought, while the northern Caribbean region is mildly to moderate wet.  Long term drought index in Dominican Republic show periods of severe and extreme drought events.  Long term annual minimum SPI shows an increasing trend, which means slight drought reduction but still in the category of moderate to severe drought. 0.0215/year 1980 - 2014 Extreme drought June 1994 CMAP coordinate 18.25 o N, 71.25 o W South East DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Minimum Annual SPI Monthly SPI Extreme drought Nov 2009

16. Heat Index – a measure of heat-stress danger  From 1948 to 1990, Dominican Republic shows a HI increasing trend of 0.059 o F per year.  Dominican Republic’s heat index indicates a fast increasing trend from the year 1990 to 2014 (0.195 o F/year).  Long-term HI trend and moving average also shows the HI increasing tendency. 0.059 o F/year 0.1915 o F/year Maximum Monthly NCEP coordinate 17.5 o N, 70 o W South West DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1948 - 2014 safe caution high caution

17. Impacts of Climate Change in Energy Infrastructure in Tropical Coastal Regions Energy per capita required – Energy activity is linked to climate change in several ways. – There is a direct relationship between the energy required for air conditioning systems and the environmental surface air temperature and humidity conditions.

18. Impacts of Climate Change in Energy Infrastructure in Tropical Coastal Regions Total Energy Consumption for Dominican Republic (1980-2013) HVAC for Dominican Republic (1980-2013)  The HVAC is the required to reduce the temperature and humidity to comfort levels.  HVAC is increasing at a rate 0.24GW per year, which correspond with the long-term increasing trend of the real total electric consumption per capita. NCEP coordinate 17.5 o N, 70 o W South West DOMINICAN REPUBLIC The world bank data

19. What are the potential consequential effects of the observed Caribbean climate changes in local ecosystems?

20. Lakes Enriquillo & Azuei Growth "El agua se lo llevó todo": el misterio de los lagos crecientes del Caribe. BBC-Espanol, 1/16.2014 Rising Tide Is a Mystery That Sinks Island Hopes – by New York Times – Jan. 11, 2014

21. Lakes in the Enriquillo Basin have experienced significant surface area changes over ~15yrs Surface area coverage of lakes has more than doubled since 2004 The situation has reached critical levels affecting communities, biodiversity, international trade, and the local economy A hydro-met hypothesis Increased SSTs -> Increased moisture - > Increased pcp (vertical and horizontal) and runoff -> Increase in lake area Other hypothesis include: – Earthquakes cause aquifers to feed lakes at increased rates; LCLU changes increase surface runoff into lakes; Increased frequency of tropical storm activity Lake Enriquillo/Azuei growth -> Local manifestations of Caribbean SSTs trends 21

22. Lake Enriquillo/Azuei Area Increase 2000 - 2015

23. Lakes Area Changes as Observed from Satellites 23

24. Lakes Area Changes & Precipitation (through July 2015) 24

25. Ground Observations (Barahona/NCDC) 25

26. Why is the Surface Area of the Lakes Changing Dramatically? A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis Increased moisture in the lake area due to increased SSTs surrounding the lake basin Increasing fresh water production in the area due to increased horizontal rain produced mainly by orographic cloud formation in the surrounding cloud montane forests A combination of these factors is leading to Total Lake Surface Area increase Increase in orographic water production Reduction in evaporation Increase in Lake surface area Lakes Enriquillo & Azuei Growth Increased precipitation Evaporation increase over the sea Precipitation increase Increase of fresh water production Runoff increase Lake evaporation decrease Lake level rise

27. Total surface precipitation and Total liquid water content between 700-1500 m Averaged surface wind (vectors) with vertical motions (contours) and Total liquid water content along cross-section at 18.25 N Lat. Modeling grids showing horizontal resolution of each. April 1995 and 2003 A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis Tested with Atmospheric Modeling: Results for Differences in Key Variables

28. Total surface precipitation and Total liquid water content between 700-1500 m Averaged surface wind (vectors) with vertical motions (contours) and Total liquid water content along cross-section at 18.25 N Lat. Modeling grids showing horizontal resolution of each. April 2003 and 2012 A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis Tested with Atmospheric Modeling: Results for Differences in Key Variables

29. HOW WILL CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE FUTURE? Guiding Questions

30. METHODOLOGY FOR FUTURE PREDICTIONS Atmospheric Component Air Temp Rel. Humid Wind speed SST RCM (<5km) RCM OUTPUT Air temperature Wind speed rainfall NCEP Data 1998 GCM (250km) Climatological Periods 1996-2010 2011-2025 2026-2040 2041-2055 2056-2069 2070-2084 2085-2098 Greenhouse gas concentration Oceanic Component Methodology for prediction of future climate changes in the IAR; originally presented in Angeles et al. 2007.

31. FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATED BY GCM Climate change difference future climate (2041-2055) - climatology (1996-2010)

32. YearyearsV (km3)H (m)A (km2) 201304.678-34324.3 201414.994-32.4351.9 201525.310-31.5366.2 201635.626-30.6379.1 201745.942-29.8390.8 201856.258-28.9401.5 201966.574-28.1411.2 202076.890-27.3420.0 202187.206-26.5428.1 202297.522-25.7435.5 2023107.838-24.9442.3 2024118.154-24.2448.5 2025128.470-23.4454.2 2026138.786-22.7459.6 2027149.102-22.0464.5 2028159.418-21.3469.1 YearyearsV (km3)H (m)A (km2) 2029169.734-20.6473.5 20301710.050-19.9477.6 20311810.366-19.2481.4 20321910.682-18.5485.1 20332010.998-17.9488.6 20342111.314-17.2492.1 20352211.630-16.6495.4 20362311.946-16.0498.6 20372412.262-15.3501.8 20382512.578-14.7505.0 20392612.894-14.1508.2 20402713.210-13.5511.4 20412813.526-12.9514.6 20422913.842-12.3517.8 YearyearsV (km3)H (m)A (km2) 20433014.158-11.7521.1 20443114.474-11.1524.5 20453214.790-10.6527.9 20463315.106-10.0531.5 20473415.422-9.4535.2 20483515.738-8.9538.9 20493616.054-8.3542.9 20503716.370-7.8546.9 20513816.686-7.2551.1 20523917.002-6.7555.5 20534017.318-6.2560.0 20544117.634-5.6564.7 20554217.950-5.1569.6 20564318.266-4.6574.7 Annual Volume added to the lake0.316 (km3) What may be the future of the lakes?

33. What’s next? In-depth analysis of present climate change consequences (i.e. precip; fluxes). Future, high resolution climate projections are needed to better understand local consequences, and in specific to the Lakes region. Better understanding of extreme weather events including variability of cyclonic activity in regional and local scales. Better understanding of the role of aerosols in future climate (see next slide). Better understanding of how local land use changes interact with a regional changing climate. Specific, resource assessment (water, energy) as functions of these observed and projected changes.

34. Precipitation and Aerosols Interactions Summer 2015 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/sju/analysis/models/geos5_AOT.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

35. Precipitation and Aerosols Interactions Summer 2015 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/sju/analysis/models/geos5_AOT.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

36. Climate Change and Consequences in the Intra-Americas Region(IAR) Questions & Comments Dr. Jorge E. González NOAA-CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY gonzalez@me.ccny.cuny.edu Coastal Environmental Research Group cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu