1. BELLRINGER EXPLAIN IN COMPLETE SENTENCES WHAT ARE PRINCIPLES OF BEHAVIOR IN SEVERE WEATHER

2. Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service

3. County vs. Polygon Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom

4. Polygon Eliminates Area False Alarmed Polygon Advantages

5. Jackson MS Apr 5-7

6. July 10 th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) July 10 th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) 10 counties warned in west central Alabama---results in 25 vertices due to Warngen constraining boundaries to political county boundaries!

7. July 10 th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) July 10 th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) Using the polygon method reduces the definition to only 5 vertices, covers largely the same constituency, and allows the forecaster much more flexibility to warn for the area the hazard is expected---rather than for county boundaries.

8. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Warngen Simplifying Polygon to County Boundary Tornado warning issued for Dent Co. MO What happens if the tornado crosses like….

9. Offices Not Watching Size of Pathcast in Warngen

10. May 30, 2004 30/2314Z: WFO St. Louis forecaster issued tornado warning for Washington Co. IL, conforming the polygon to “more or less” the shape of the county 30/2319Z: WFO Paducah issued tornado warning for neighboring Perry Co. IL 30/2330Z: Confirmed tornado touchdown in Dubois, Washington County IL

11. What is a GIS? Geographic Information System Geographic Information System DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer hardware, software, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of geographically referenced information DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer hardware, software, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of geographically referenced information

12. GIS Data Collection of: Collection of: PointsPoints Surface observations Surface observations LinesLines Hurricane tracks Hurricane tracks Tornado trajectories Tornado trajectories PolygonsPolygons Short-fuse warnings (TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW) Short-fuse warnings (TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW) Watches (SPC Outline) Watches (SPC Outline) Other watches/warnings using preexisting polygons such as county outlines Other watches/warnings using preexisting polygons such as county outlines 3-dimensional objects3-dimensional objects Volumetric river basins Volumetric river basins

13. GIS Data Formats Most commonly used standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry. Most commonly used standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry. Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three file components which describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data attributes that make up each shape Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three file components which describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data attributes that make up each shape

14. GIS Software Desktop Desktop ESRI ArcGISESRI ArcGIS ESRI ArcViewESRI ArcView MapDeskMapDesk Public Domain: GRASSPublic Domain: GRASS Server Server ESRI ArcIMSESRI ArcIMS ESRI ArcGIS ServerESRI ArcGIS Server Public Domain: UMinn MapserverPublic Domain: UMinn Mapserver Non-GIS Software Non-GIS Software AWIPS (uses shapefiles)AWIPS (uses shapefiles)

15. NWS Data Uses formats not familiar to GIS users: Uses formats not familiar to GIS users: WMO GRIB1 & 2WMO GRIB1 & 2 NDFD Grids NDFD Grids NCEP Models NCEP Models WMO Binary Universal Form for the Representation (BUFR) of meteorological dataWMO Binary Universal Form for the Representation (BUFR) of meteorological data Soundings etc. Soundings etc. Level II & Level III radarLevel II & Level III radar Unique binary format in radial format around a single station Unique binary format in radial format around a single station ALL are already georeferenced!

16. Convergence Looking for ways to merge hydrometeorologic data with GIS - Convert NWS data sets into georeferenced, GIS-friendly formats - Disseminate NWS data using GIS structure such as Internet Mapping Systems

17. One Example… Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data files Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data files

18. Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid- 2003. Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and freeware software tools Interesting patterns result, especially when the warning sets are shown over time…

19. Step 1: Capture the polygon points Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term warnings: Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term warnings: TOR – tornado warningsTOR – tornado warnings SVR – severe thunderstorm warningsSVR – severe thunderstorm warnings FFW – flash flood warningsFFW – flash flood warnings SMW – special marine warningsSMW – special marine warnings

20. Step 2: Parse the warning text Extract all the needed information: Issue Time UGC Expiration Time VTEC line ….and….of course… …the polygon vertices

21. Step 3: At scheduled intervals update the “flat file” database Using only open source (“freeware”) software Using only open source (“freeware”) software Code written in PerlCode written in Perl Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” formatPolygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format “gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scripts “gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scripts Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as well Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as well

22. Step 4: Convert “gen” format into standard shapefile format

23. The long-term database can then be used in a variety of ways to provide post-analysis and to look for trends (both weather-related as well as policy-related) Examples: Area of polygon (warned areas) Verification studies (e.g. compare LSR with warnings Provide summaries of storm seasons

24. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Examples – Tornado Warnings 2004

25. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Examples – Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004

26. Examples – Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

27. Special Marine Warnings

28. Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles TORNADO REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005

29. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region …in contrast to…. One remarkable day, May 30 th 2004 when severe weather broke out from Texas to Iowa to the Carolinas

30. GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports

31. Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles HAIL REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005

32. Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles WIND REPORTS Jan- Jun 2005

33. Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004

34. Flash Flood Warnings the most “county-based” of all four short- fuse warning types

35. Applications For Viewing Polygon Warnings CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml New NWS RIDGE Site: New NWS RIDGE Site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/RIDGE

36. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Busy Day….! http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

37. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region ArcIMS Map Service http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

38. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Includes LSR data from SPC

39. Texas A&M Mesonet Site http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/

40. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Iowa Environmental Mesonet http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

41. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH server) Uses web technology to “simulate” an Internet map server Allows several different radar products (including SRM) on top of hillshaded topography, roads, counties, rivers Includes ability to animate and zoom …and….an overlay of the active warnings in effect at the time of the radar image

42. Where do we go from here…..? Look at a new type of All-Hazards radio Look at a new type of All-Hazards radio Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical countiesFocusing on points in space rather than geopolitical counties Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi NW of Houston]Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi NW of Houston] Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all- hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located using the now more commonly found GPS unitsMoving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all- hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located using the now more commonly found GPS units

43. New NOAA Radio Concept Warning issued for Okmulgee and McIntosh Counties. New NWR’s use latitude/longitude (or city) rather than county/SAME code. Residents in Checotah will not be alerted but residents in Stidham are, even though both are in McIntosh County. GPS-enabled cell phones/cars travelling on I-40 within polygon would be alerted also.

44. Where do we go from here…..? Automated GIS techniques Automated GIS techniques Greatly facilitate verificationGreatly facilitate verification Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were warned with each warning by linking to population databases)Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were warned with each warning by linking to population databases) More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including the ability to provide custom information based on user criteriaMore robust web dissemination possibilities --- including the ability to provide custom information based on user criteria ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking this road ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking this road

45. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Private Sector Opportunities Why not work WITH private sector. Some private sector companies are already strongly endorsing the polygon warning methods

46. ACTIVITY Discuss in a group and write a report about principles of behavior in severe weather. Present your report to class. Distribution of work: person 1 – what are dangers of severe weather?, 2 – what are physical damages of severe weather?, 3 – what is the timeline of severe weather?, 4 - how can we practically implement these principles. Distribution for groups: Group I – hurricane; II – tornado; III – heavy snowstorm; V – heavy rain and wind; VI – dangerous thunderstorm; VII – heavy hail; VIII – freezing after heavy snow and rain with high wind

47. EXIT QUIZ 1. What is the weather system content? 2. Describe imaging in the weather system 3. Why do we need several radar sources in the weather system? 4. What are these sources? 5. What is the future of the weather system?