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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Jackson Hockley Senior Investment Analyst Energy Sector Equipment.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Jackson Hockley Senior Investment Analyst Energy Sector Equipment."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Jackson Hockley Senior Investment Analyst Energy Sector Equipment & Services, Oil & Gas

2 2 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Energy Performance Review The Energy Sector, S&P 500, and Commodity Prices Source: Factset

3 3 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Energy Performance Review The Energy Sub-Sectors Source: Factset

4 4 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Oil Prices, What Will They Do Next? It’s been a wild ride!! Oil Prices Source: Factset

5 5 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Where Will Oil Prices Go Next? “Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel, which, needless to say, supports our deflationary outlook.” –Robert Prechter August 13, 2009 Opinions Are All Over The Board… Source: Bloomberg, Dinakar Sethuraman, “Oil May Fall Below $10 in Next Decade, Prechter Says”

6 6 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Where Will Oil Prices Go Next? Then: “Oil will sink to $20/barrel.” –Philip Verleger (Professor at The University of Calgary) July 2009 Now: “I’m fairly certain we’ll see prices in the $30’s this year.” –Philip Verleger (Professor at The University of Calgary) September 21, 2009 Opinions Are All Over The Board…

7 7 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Where Will Oil Prices Go Next? Oil will average $90/barrel in 2010 –Goldman Sachs September 24, 2009 Opinions Are All Over The Board…

8 8 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Global Oil Supply & Demand Source: Schlumberger

9 9 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regional Population

10 10 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Oil Consumption

11 11 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference U.S. Natural Gas Storage

12 12 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference U.S. Natural Gas Demand By Type

13 13 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Power Generation 49% 20% 9% 21%

14 14 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference U.S. Shale Gas Plays Source: EIA

15 15 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Shale Production Metrics Have Improved Over Time For example, look at Southwestern Energy’s Fayetteville metrics since 1Q 2007

16 16 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference So How High Should Natural Gas Prices Go?

17 17 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Wave of New LNG Projects in the Pacific Basin

18 18 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Buy-rated Stocks Majors  Chevron (CVX)  Exxon Mobil (XOM) E&P  Apache (APA)  Suncor (SU)  Talisman (TLM)  Noble Energy Equipment & Services  Baker Hughes (BHI)  Halliburton (HAL)  National Oilwell Varco (NOV)  Noble (NE)  Schlumberger (SLB)  Transocean (RIG)

19 © 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Questions for Energy?

20 © 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Jackson Hockley Senior Investment Analyst Thank you.


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