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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Jackson Hockley Senior Investment Analyst Energy Sector Equipment & Services, Oil & Gas
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2 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Energy Performance Review The Energy Sector, S&P 500, and Commodity Prices Source: Factset
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3 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Energy Performance Review The Energy Sub-Sectors Source: Factset
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4 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Oil Prices, What Will They Do Next? It’s been a wild ride!! Oil Prices Source: Factset
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5 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Where Will Oil Prices Go Next? “Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel, which, needless to say, supports our deflationary outlook.” –Robert Prechter August 13, 2009 Opinions Are All Over The Board… Source: Bloomberg, Dinakar Sethuraman, “Oil May Fall Below $10 in Next Decade, Prechter Says”
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6 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Where Will Oil Prices Go Next? Then: “Oil will sink to $20/barrel.” –Philip Verleger (Professor at The University of Calgary) July 2009 Now: “I’m fairly certain we’ll see prices in the $30’s this year.” –Philip Verleger (Professor at The University of Calgary) September 21, 2009 Opinions Are All Over The Board…
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7 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Where Will Oil Prices Go Next? Oil will average $90/barrel in 2010 –Goldman Sachs September 24, 2009 Opinions Are All Over The Board…
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8 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Global Oil Supply & Demand Source: Schlumberger
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9 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Regional Population
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10 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Oil Consumption
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11 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference U.S. Natural Gas Storage
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12 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference U.S. Natural Gas Demand By Type
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13 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Power Generation 49% 20% 9% 21%
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14 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference U.S. Shale Gas Plays Source: EIA
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15 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Shale Production Metrics Have Improved Over Time For example, look at Southwestern Energy’s Fayetteville metrics since 1Q 2007
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16 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference So How High Should Natural Gas Prices Go?
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17 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Wave of New LNG Projects in the Pacific Basin
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18 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Buy-rated Stocks Majors Chevron (CVX) Exxon Mobil (XOM) E&P Apache (APA) Suncor (SU) Talisman (TLM) Noble Energy Equipment & Services Baker Hughes (BHI) Halliburton (HAL) National Oilwell Varco (NOV) Noble (NE) Schlumberger (SLB) Transocean (RIG)
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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Questions for Energy?
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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Jackson Hockley Senior Investment Analyst Thank you.
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