1. The independence and determinants of outcomes: The relevance for Policy Bilal Nasim, Researcher CMPO 9 th February 2010 DCSF 2010 Research Conference

2. 2 We still lag behind other countries in terms of labour productivity… International comparisons of output per hour worked (UK=100) Productivity is the main determinant of national living standards. It refers to how well an economy uses the resources it has. The UK has relatively poor productivity compared to other major economies, although we have made progress in recent years. ONS: International Comparisons of Productivity OMahoney and de Boer (2002) Britain’s Relative Productivity Performance: Updates to 1999 Up to one fifth of the UK's productivity gap with France and Germany is a result of the lack of skills of workers in the UK.

3. 3 …income inequality is at its highest since records began … The higher the gini coefficient the greater the income inequality Gini coefficient, UK 1970-2008 Income inequality rose significantly over the past 30 years, particularly during the 1980s Levels of inequality have stabilised since the late 1990s, though have started to tick upwards in the past few years Inequality is now statistically significantly higher than the level of inequality observed in 1997 Inequality in the UK is above the OECD average, but below that of the USA and Mexico Sources: Households Below Average income / IFS (2009) Poverty and inequality in the UK 2009

4. 4 …social mobility remains an issue… Percentage of sons in lowest income quartile whose parents are also in lowest quartile Percentage of sons in highest income quartile whose parents are also in highest quartile Income mobility fell between cohorts born in 1958 and 1970 (and was high by international standards)… …but recent evidence suggests this trend may be reversing Relationship between family income and GCSE attainment Sources: Blanden, Gregg and Machin (2005), Intergenerational Mobility in Europe and North America, Sutton Trust, LSE Gregg and Macmillan (2008) Intergenerational Mobility and Education in the Next Generation, mimeo

5. 5 …and there are concerns about children’s overall well-being… Comparative policy-focused child well- being in 30 OECD countries 12th15th22nd20th28th 4th No. of countries in each ranking Source: OECD (2009) Doing Better for Children

6. 6 Progress is being made in a number of areas… Attainment on most measures continues to rise… …and fewer schools are missing floor targets The recession is helping to push up participation in education and training Attainment at age 19 is improving, whilst at the same time the FSM gap is slightly narrowing Fewer looked after children are moved frequently, and more are in stable placements… …and more care-leavers are having positive outcomes – both in terms of accommodation and employment, education or training Breastfeeding is on a general upward trend Infant mortality continues to fall and the rate of hospital admissions has fallen from its 2006- 07 peak Substance misuse and abuse amongst young people is on a general downward trend The number of 1st time entrants to the criminal justice system has turned a corner… …and rates of reoffending are down Enjoy and Achieve Achieve Economic Well-being Stay Safe / Economic Well-being Be Healthy Be Healthy / Stay Safe Make a positive contribution Achieve Economic Well-being Be Healthy

7. 7 …but there are significant challenges in other areas: Attainment gaps by FSM and SEN continue to persist, though there are signs of progress Numbers of young people NEET are rising …and whilst we’re making improvements in the attainment of looked after children, the 2011 targets will be challenging We are unlikely to meet our 2010 Child Poverty target Reductions in conception rates of teenage girls since 1998 have only been gradual Enjoy and achieve Achieve Economic Well-being Enjoy and achieve Achieve Economic Well-being Be Healthy

8. 8 Outline Introduction: Scene-setting A. The interdependence and determinants of outcomes of childhood B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations

9. 9 The ‘outcomes’ of childhood are not mutually exclusive goods. The latest academic research has enabled us to understand these links better Individual Family Institutional Social Early outcomes Adult outcomes Intergenerational impacts Enjoy and Achieve Make a positive contribution Be healthy Achieve economic well-being Stay Safe ECM OutcomesLater outcomes Determinants of outcomes ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

10. 10 A number of ECM outcomes are associated with achievement, though prior attainment still dominates 10 Achieve Make a positive contribution Be healthy Self-rated health and extracurricular activities are positively and significantly associated with academic achievement. There is a very strong, significant – and causal – negative relationship between previous unauthorised absence levels and academic achievement. Enjoy and achieve (attendance) Stay Safe (bullying) Determinants of achievement at age 16 Source: Vignoles and Meschi, Forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”. Achieve economic well-being

11. 11 Happy children tend to be more successful, enjoy school and participate more 11 Achieve Enjoy Stay Safe (bullying) Pupils with high life satisfaction report significantly more positive school experiences, a greater frequency of extracurricular activities participation and higher academic achievement… …in contrast, being a victim of bullying is significantly related to worse levels of well- being, behaviour and academic achievement, though the reverse is not true Make a positive contribution Source: Gilman and Huebner, 2006, “Characteristics of adolescents who report very high life satisfaction” Gutman and Feinstein, 2008, “Children’s Well-Being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”

12. 12 Children’s health is a key determinant of school enjoyment… 12 Enjoy Stay Safe (bullying) Be healthy Bullied children at 14 are significantly less likely to enjoy school at 16 while the opposite is seen to be true for pupils with higher self-rated health. Perhaps unsurprisingly, truanting behaviour is negatively associated with school enjoyment, though causality is likely to run in both directions Enjoy and achieve (attendance) Determinants of school enjoyment at age 16 Source: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.

13. 13 …and is strongly associated with the likelihood of being bullied, though the direction of causation is yet to be established… 13 Stay Safe (bullying) Be healthy Pupils experiencing bullying at 14 are more likely to experience a greater degree of bullying at 16. Pupils reporting health problems at 14 are significantly more likely to report being bullied at 16... …but academic achievement (Key Stage 2) and attitude toward school (age 14) appear to be not associated with being bullied at 16. Source: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.

14. 14 …and ceasing to enjoy school is associated with a range of negative outcomes Children that enjoy school perform better at KS4, even when accounting for prior attainment and are significantly less likely to engage in risky and anti- social behaviour children who are bullied perform worse than children who are not bullied and are more likely to experience behavioural problems… …but are no more likely to truant… Impact of school enjoyment on outcomes Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE Make a positive contribution Achieve Enjoy Stay Safe (bullying)

15. 15 The relative importance of individual, family, and social factors in determining child outcomes Individual Family Institutional Social Early outcomes Adult outcomes Intergenerational impacts Enjoy and Achieve Make a positive contribution Be healthy Achieve economic well-being Stay Safe ECM OutcomesLater outcomes Determinants of outcomes Source: Adapted from Crawford et al (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England DCSF RR 102

16. 16 Family income is associated with a wide range of cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes... Family Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193 The steeper the curve, the stronger the relationship between income and the outcome in question Significant Income gradients are observed in mid-childhood outcomes These income gradients appear to be largest for cognitive outcomes… ….and smallest for obesity, self esteem and behaviour

17. 17 …and well as for a number of “behaviours”, though not always in the expected direction 17 Frequent smoker, age 14 Participates in positive activities Frequent drinker, age 14 Anti-social behaviour Source: Crawford et al (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England DCSF RR 102 Family

18. 18 No. These gradients can’t be considered causal. Much – but not all – of the observed income gradients in childhood outcomes are transmitted via parental characteristics and the home environment – which is partly a result of their parents’ socio-economic background. Family Does this mean income is all that matters? However children living in poverty experience restricted access to many factors which might otherwise provide ‘protection’ against the negative impact of low-income, including: friendships; time with family; good relationships with teachers; ability to concentrate on school work; health; stability of neighbourhood and school; and membership of social networks.

19. 19 Family income does seem to have a direct causal impact on childhood outcomes, but the effects are fairly modest… UK evidence suggest that a one-third reduction in family income increases the propensity to achieve no A-C GCSEs by between 1 and 3 percentage points… Canadian evidence indicates that a $1000 increase in child benefits causes approximately 7% of a standard deviation increases in Maths and PPVT scores… –…and 3% and 5% of a standard deviation reductions in childhood hyperactivity and physical aggression respectively. …and American research has shown a $1000 increase in family income raises Maths and Reading scores by 6% of a standard deviation. Source: Stabile and Milligan, 2008 “Do child benefits affect the well-being of children? Evidence from Canadian child benefit expansions”, Gregg and Blanden, 2004 “Family Income and Educational Attainment: A Review of Approaches and Evidence for Britain”, Dahl and Lochner, 2008 “The impact of Family Income on child achievement”

20. 20 Parental education explains a good deal of the association between income and outcomes… Family KS1 further decomposition Locus of control further decomposition % of income gradient explained by socio-economic characteristics Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193

21. 21 …and parental education also accounts for three-quarters of the association between income and fat mass… Family % of income gradient explained by socio-economic characteristics Fat mass further decomposition Behaviour further decomposition Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193

22. 22 Differences in the environments and behaviours of children from low and high income households predict a substantial proportion of the income gradients… Mothers’ psychological functioning and access to social networks are particularly important for behavioural problems. Health-related behaviours of low income parents are as important for cognitive outcomes and child mental and physical health. If smoking rates among low income mothers were to fall to the rates of their higher income counterparts, the income gradients for fat mass and child behaviour would fall by one fifth Percentage of the income gradient explained by differences in environments and behaviours of low and high income households Family Parental characteristics account for one third of the cognitive income gradients, but over 50% of the shallower mental and physical health outcome gradients Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193

23. 23 …but there also may be adverse consequences of higher-income lifestyles… 23 Maternal employment Physical Activity Long hours of maternal employment in pre- school period are associated with lower cognitive, non-cognitive and behavioural outcomes in children Learning-focused activities and behaviours, car ownership and the temperature of the home in the pre- school period are all associated with greater fat mass in children at age 9 Family Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193

24. 24 …and we are only now starting to understand what behaviours and characteristics to be important in explaining parenting style. Quality of interaction at age 1 Educational communication at age 1 Quality of interaction at age 5** Educational communication at age 5** xx Breastfeeding xxx Social Networks xx Maternal Education x Maternal Mental Health Source: Adapted from Gutman et al (2009) Nurturing Parenting Capability: the early years Behaviours ‘Characteristics’ Predictors of parenting quality* at age 1 and 5 **Includes control for age 1 measure so the age 5 effects are additional effects * Measure using the Thorpe Interaction Measure which involves a mother and child sharing a picture book at ages 1 and 5 xxx Marital Status xxx Number of siblings Family

25. 25 Individual child attitudes are critical. Levels of self-belief are related to attainment, whereas changes matter for engagement in risky behaviours. 25 Individual There strong associations between children’s beliefs regarding their own ability and their academic attainment…. …but losing self-belief is also associated with increased likelihood in engagement in risky behaviours. There are also strong associations between whether a child believes they have control over their own economic destiny and their academic attainment… Impact of child self-belief on outcomes Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE

26. 26 …and children with greater educational aspiration tend to perform better in school, and have fewer behavioural issues. Impact of higher education aspirations on outcomes Individual Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE

27. 27 So-called “peer effects” have a small, albeit significant impact on attainment… Teacher assessment of age-11 ability Peer groups could account for around 0.6% of the variance in pupils’ progress between the ages of 11 and 14. General differences between schools explain about 13% of the variance Peer effects are dwarfed by the impact of pupils’ own prior attainment Low ability pupils do not appear to benefit as much from mixing with high ability peers as intermediate and high ability pupils do Peer group FSM status does not have a direct impact after controlling for attainment effects Impact of peer group quality on attainment Gibbons, S., and Telhaj, S. (2006) “Peer Effects and Pupil Attainment: Evidence from Secondary School Transition” CEE Discussion Paper 63 Social

28. 28 …but neighbourhood characteristics in and of themselves appear to have little influence on outcomes, except NEET… 28 Social Deprived individuals living in deprived areas are more likely to be NEET at age 17 than deprived individuals living in non-deprived areas. However same study finds no evidence that neighbourhood deprivation consistently affects Key Stage 4 scores or any behavioural outcomes at age 16… …though the literature is more mixed about the impact of neighbourhoods on behaviour outcomes Impact of multiple deprivation on chances of being NEET (relative to 20% most deprived neighbourhoods) Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE

29. 29 Policy Discussion: Section A (i) There appear to be complementarities between ECM outcomes; Exploit interdependencies to improve and broaden the effect of policy. Proactive targeting of pupils at risk of future cognitive and non-cognitive difficulties. Supportive of the “Personalised Learning” approach.

30. 30 (ii) The determinants of outcomes: Potential avenues to improve child outcomes; Parents: Increasing educational capital of parents. Improving parental psychological health and health-related behaviours. Creating a better home and wider local environment for children.

31. 31 Individual: Increasing the aspirations and self-belief of children Income: Ensuring parents are aware of the potential adverse effects of aspects of high income life-styles. Continuation of the use of income transfers and benefits to disadvantaged families.

32. 32 Outline Introduction: Scene-setting A. The interdependence and determinants of outcomes of childhood B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations

33. 33 Differences between schools account for between a tenth and a fifth of variation in academic attainment… 33 Institutional Percentage of between-school variation in test scores Around a tenth to a fifth of the variation in Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 is attributable to school differences. Voluntary-Aided schools have the best GCSE results, but they also have a higher quality intake Sources: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”. Guttman and Feinstein (2008) “Children’s Well-being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”; DCSF “(2008) GCSE and Equivalent Results in England, 2007/8 and DCSF (2008) The Composition of Schools in England Key Stage 2 and 4 attainment by school type LAs with schools who have more ‘selective’ admissions systems have more between-school variation

34. 34 …but good teachers do seem to matter... Being taught by a high-quality (75th percentile) rather than low-quality (25th percentile) teacher adds 0.425 of a GCSE point per subject (where 1 point= 1 grade). Rivkin et al (2005) find the gap in GCSE points between a poor and non-poor student is 6.08 GCSE points. If the poor student had good teachers for all 8 subjects and the non-poor student had poor (25th percentile teachers) for all 8, this would make up 3.4 points (56% of the difference). Impact of teacher quality on GCSE attainment Source: Burgess et al (2009) Do teachers matter? Measuring the variation in teacher effectiveness in England Institutional

35. 35 …as do pupil-teacher relations… Impact of pupil-teacher relations on age 16 outcomes Sources: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE Guttman and Feinstein (2008) “Children’s Well-being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects” Institutional Good teacher-child relations are negatively associated with engagement in a wide range of risky behaviours… Children attending schools with a high level of parental involvement experience 5% and 4% advantages in Key Stage 2 Maths and English respectively… …while conversely, schools with a high level of parent-teacher disputes experience 5% lower Key Stage 2 scores on average.

36. 36 There also is evidence that more resources at the margin can improve outcomes, especially for disadvantaged groups… Key Stage 2 Key Stage 3 Key Stage 4 Other key issues An increase of £1,000 in average expenditure per pupil leads to an implies an average improvement in attainment corresponding to 4.3% of a level in English, 3.5% in maths and 1.9% in science (OLS) £100 more on per pupil expenditure increases Maths and Science attainment at Key Stage 3 on average by 4% of a level (IV) £100 per annum over 5 years of additional expenditure per pupil would be associated with an improvement of about 0.3 in the capped GCSE points score. (IV) Spending the same amount on reducing the pupil-teacher ratio has a greater effect Effects are of greater magnitude for pupils from more disadvantaged backgrounds, especially those with high prior attainment. Levacic et al (2005) Estimating the Relationship Between School Resources and Pupil Attainment at Key Stage 3; Levacic et al (2006) Estimating the Relationship between School Resources and Pupil Attainment at GCSE; Holmand et al (2008) Impact of School Resources on Attainment at Key Stage 2 Institutional

37. 37 Social class gaps open early, and continue to widen… Source: Feinstein (2003). “Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort,” Economica, p73-97. Blanden and Machin (2007) Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility The famous “Feinstein Chart” of the 1970 cohort demonstrates that social class gaps open early, and continue to widen… Attainment (percentile rank) by SES and early ability Attainment (percentile rank) by income and early ability Hses, Hab’ty Lses, Hab’ty Hses, Lab’ty Lses, Lab’ty Hinc, Hab’ty Hinc, Lab’ty Linc, Hab’ty Linc, Lab’ty …but this doesn’t appear to be a historical anomaly – the Millennium Cohort Study is begging to reveal a similar trend…

38. 38 Pre-School has significant effect on a child’s early cognitive outcomes… …and these effect persist into early primary school Children who spend more time in pre-school, experience significantly higher cognitive attainments… Impact of pre school on cognitive ability (pre- school) – compared to home children Impact of pre-school on primary school reading – compared to home children EPPE: Tech Paper 8a “Measuring the Impact of Pre-School on Children’s Cognitive Progress over the Pre-School Period”

39. 39 …and social and behavioural development. 39 Results show that children who have spent more time in pre-school have significantly better social behavioural development. Impact of pre school on non-cognitive outcomes (pre school) – compared to home children A small time in preschool appears to be best for co- operation and conformity… …but only those who have spent a long time in pre- school are significantly more anti-social / worried EPPE: Tech Paper 8b “Measuring the Impact of Pre-School on Children’s Social/Behavioural Development over the Pre-School Period”

40. 40 The positive effect of pre-school persists well into childhood …and good quality pre-school can help to promote young people’s self-regulation There is a clear pre-school quality gradient in Key Stage 2 Maths and English. Effect of pre-school quality on age 11 English and maths Impact of pre-school on self regulation and pro- social behaviour age 11 EPPE (3-11): Final Report from the Primary Phase: Pre-school, School and Family Influences on Children’s Development During Key Stage 2 (Age 7-11)

41. 41 Policy Discussion: Section B (i) The role of Schools Improving the quality of teachers and ensuring good teacher-child/parent relations Ensuring a good child-school “fit” and further support for the “Personalised Learning” program.

42. 42 (ii) The role of pre-schools: Encouraging attendance and duration in pre-schools. Improving the quality of pre-schools.

43. 43 Outline Introduction: Scene-setting A. The interdependence and determinants of outcomes of childhood B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations

44. 44 Age 11 social and cognitive skills matter for employment and adult wages 44 Impact of social and cognitive skills at age 11 on probability of employment Impact of social and cognitive skills at age 11 on (log) wages Pedro Carneiro, Claire Crawford, Alissa Goodman, 2007: The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes

45. 45 Age 11 well-being and cognitive skills also associated with fewer mental, physical and behavioural problems in adulthood… 45 Impact of age 11 social and cognitive skills on non-cognitive outcomes Source: Carneiro, P. et al (2007) The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes CEE Discussion Paper 92

46. 46 …so it is not surprising that intergenerational income mobility has stayed stubbornly high (by international standards) over recent years… 1970  =0.291 1958  =0.205 Decomposing the change in the relationship between family income and sons’ income 1958-1970 3/4 of the rise in the intergenerational co- efficient can be explained, mainly by strengthening relationships between family income and: Access to HE; Attainment at 16; Unemployment Parental income had more impact on Non- cognitive skills in the 1970 cohort, but the effect of non-cognitive skills on income mainly operated through raising attainment. Source: Blanden, Gregg and MacMillan (2006) “Explaining Intergenerational Income Persistence: Non-cognitive Skills, Ability and Education” CMPO Working Paper 06/146 where

47. 47 …and recent evidence shows that intergenerational associations are evident for the whole range of ECM outcomes… 47 Stay safe Bullying and discrimination Safe from crime and ASB Have security, stability and cared for Intergenerational conditional correlations between parent and child outcomes Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE

48. 48 There are strong intergenerational associations between a number of health outcomes, for example birthweight 48 Be healthy Physically Healthy Mentally / Emotionally Healthy Healthy Lifestyles Intergenerational conditional correlations between parent and child outcomes Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE

49. 49 The link between early cognitive ability of parents and children is not as strong as later cognitive ability 49 Enjoy and achieve Ready for school Achieve stretching national educational standards in primary school Achieve personal social development and enjoy recreation Intergenerational conditional correlations between parent and child outcomes Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE

50. 50 …and there is generally less of a link between “making a positive contribution” indicators… 50 Make a positive contribution Engage in decision making and support community and environment Develop positive relationships and choose not to bully and discriminate Intergenerational conditional correlations between parent and child outcomes Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE

51. 51 …and the link between educational and economic well-being is particularly strong 51 Achieve economic well-being Engage in further education Live in decent homes and sustainable communities Intergenerational conditional correlations between parent and child outcomes Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE

52. …and similarly, children living in social housing are much more likely to live in social housing as adults… 52 Children born in 1970 living in social housing are over 3 times more likely to live in social housing in adulthood... …and social housing is associated with almost every indicator of disadvantage measurable. Achieve economic well-being

53. 53 Policy Discussion: Section C Inter-generational persistence and intra-generational associations: Closing the gap in non-cognitive skills between rich and poor children. Continued action to raise attainment of poor children at 16 and beyond. Ensuring poor children do not experience long-term unemployment early in their careers.