1. Take-up of DSL technologies Tim Johnson Publisher www.point-topic.com January 2005

2. 2www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Contents VDSL and VDSL2 ADSL2+ Symmetric DSL

3. 3www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Overlapping markets Symmetric DSL VDSL FTTB ADSL2+

4. 4 VDSL and VDSL2

5. 5www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Original VDSL: a technology going nowhere? Big in Asia-Pacific mainly distributing FTTB inside MTUs 2.2m lines in Korea alone - but levelling off large numbers in China (6m?) and Japan Very little public network VDSL old projects not being extended few new ones identified (Belgium, Norway, Slovenia) “substantially all” shipments into FTTB buildouts

6. 6www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Even Korea Telecom’s VDSL growth has slackened off

7. 7www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT A case study in missing the bus Too much too soon early versions were “a solution looking for a problem” leapfrogged by ADSL2+; newer technology, better suited to actual need A marketing disaster long, destructive standards battle moribund industry associations repeated failure to meet expectations

8. 8www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Will VDSL2 be different? Standard on a fast track? first ratification Q3 2005; base standard soon after driven by the US RBOCs; compromises to get agreement Delivering 30Mbps up to 1.8km - eventually What RBOCs need to offer full triple play? two HiDef TV channels + data + VoIP “A major technology in N. America in 2006” –Ramen Cohen, Metalink Too disruptive for Europe?

9. 9 ADSL2+

10. 10www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT ADSL2+: the right technology at the right time? Downstream speeds enough for realistic applications Better range than original VDSL Easier to integrate into an ADSL world Annex J supports business symmetry requirement

11. 11www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Leading-edge operators moving rapidly into ADSL2+ Sweden and Norway 60,000 ADSL2+ ports by end-2004 Free (France) migrating 1m customers to ADSL2+ “FreeBox” 6Mbps downstream for Euro 30/month Wanadoo (Netherlands) 8Mbps/1Mbps for Euro88/month BellSouth (USA) will use ADSL2+ to trial a video offering

12. 12 Symmetric DSL

13. 13www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Symmetric DSL: many choices, slow take-up SDSL –proprietary, mainly USA SHDSL –ITU standard, industrial strength, still a niche Symmetrical ADSLs –ADSL2+ Annex J could be the preferred choice VDSL –some business offerings in special situations?

14. 14www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT 1.2m Symmetric DSL lines worldwide by end-2004 Source: Point Topic

15. 15www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Signs of stronger growth in future Some uptick in business broadband in 2004 Arrival of ADSL2+ should make symmetric broadband cheaper and easier SHDSL still has technical advantages IP VPN more recognised as the unifying platform for business applications IP-over-Ethernet seen as the coming technology

16. 16www.point-topic.com Broadband History for BT Tim Johnson www.point-topic.com tim@point-topic.com