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Latin American Panel 13-14 September, 2010 Lima, Perú TANKER MARKET Peter M. Swift
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LAP Meeting 2009 Markets
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LAP Meeting 2010 MARKETS SHORTER Term view
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LAP Meeting 2009 MARKETS LONGER Term view
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Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO m dwt Projected tanker fleet development 1992-2013 1. 1.Current orderbook 2. 2.Phase out of all SH tankers by end 2010 number Based on :
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Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO USD bn Investment Orders for new tankers – USD bn USD m price
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World oil demand mbd mbd Source. IEA Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW*1Q05-4Q11 mbd
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Tanker Markets Today ? Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2010:Down 0.6% Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2010:Up 19% Demand - mid 2008 to mid 2011:Up 0.8% Supply - mid 2008 to mid 2011:Up 26%
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Market Forecast !
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Tanker Markets Today Demand : World oil trade Supply : Ships on Order & Fleet development Tanker market Shipbuilding capacity
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World Oil Demand vs. GDP Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
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Orderbook – All ships (>999GT) Source: Clarksons, April 2010 Orderbook Development (All ship types)
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Tanker Contracting 1996-2010 Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Tanker Contracting by Country of Build Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Newbuilding Tanker Prices Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Tanker Orderbook Development* *Data pertains to end of period and last complete month Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Tanker Cancellations 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 VLCCSuezmaxAframaxMR no of vessels 2007200820092010 Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Tanker Order Slippage 2009 Vs 2010 Proportion (%) of schedule that did not deliver in 09/10 45 24 20 33 11 30 27 43 19 13 17 15 29 26 21 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All TankersVLCCSuezmaxAframaxPanamaxMRHandy % not delivered as scheduled 2009 2010 ytd Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Tanker Fleet Delivery Schedule 20.0 39.0 40.7 15.0 5.1 2.6 2.9 2.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010201120122013 deadweight (million) Deliveries (forecast) MINUS Cancellations & SlippageRemovals (forecast) *Includes phase out ideas, 2010 reflects remainder of the year Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Tanker Age Profile 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1970-19741975-1979 19801981198219831984198519861987 1988 1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 2008 2009201020112012 2013 2014 no of vessels Handy MR Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt Based on LRFairplay Years
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Tanker Fleet Comparisons 84475 18 37 39 20 25 12 17 72 71 70 76 77 59 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 VLCCSuezmaxAframaxPanamaxMRHandy percentage of exisiting fleet (dwt) non-double hullOn OrderBuilt since 2000 *Note that Aframax and Panamax include coated vessels Source: Clarksons, September 2010
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Where next for Single Hull Tankers ? Trading beyond 2010 ? AustraliaNo ChinaNo EU No Mexico No Romania No S KoreaNo* PhilippinesNo* UAE No* (*No official note sent to IMO yet) BahamasYes BarbadosYes Liberia Yes Marshall Isl.Yes Panama FlagYes Japan Yes SingaporeYes India Yes Hong KongYes** (** Max. 20 years old) Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years United States N/A (OPA90)
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Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO USD/day Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until September
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The uncertainties Global or regional economic stagnation New pipelines Natural and other disasters – e.g. Macondo spill Climate Change legislation – e.g. voluntary or involuntary slower speeds Oil price – floating storage/contango opportunities and inventory levels Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean Pipeline
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Shipbuilding output and forecast Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09 m cgt
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Muchas Gracias Thank you For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com London, Oslo. Washington, Singapore and Brussels
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