1. International Search And Rescue Training MOB SOUTH OF THE ISLAND ANHOLT 20 th of August 2013

2. The Situation Weather conditions the 20 th of August 2013: Clear sky Wind W – 7 knob Sea state: 0.5 meter Total Water current: 183° – 0.1 knob (calc. by JRCC) Temperature AIR: + 17° C Temperature WATER: ? Visibility: app 10 sømil Sun rise: 0752Z Sun set: 1841Z At 0824Z JRCC DANMARK received an alarm call that someone has fallen overboard from a yacht South of the Island Anholt 2

3. The Situation (20 th of August 2013, at 0824Z) At 0824Z JRCC DANMARK received an alarm call that someone has fallen overboard from a yacht South of the Island Anholt 3

4. The Situation (20 th of August 2013, at 0824Z) At 0828Z alarm calls of the Search and Resue Units. 4

5. Situation (20 th of August 2013, at 0827Z) At 0827Z JRCC initiates a calculation of a search area by using SARIS. (at this time only computer data are available for Total Water Current and Wind speed in the area). Calulated DATUM time at 1715Z (the calc. should have been done when the FIRST SRU will be in the area) X-error: 1,0 NM Search area: 21,2 (NM) 2 5

6. SARIS CALCULATION (DATUM TID at 1715Z ) DATUM time at 1715Z The X-error is specified to 2,5 NM according to the uncertainty of the time +/- 10 minuts of the event time (2,0 NM) and the uncertainty of the determination of the position. Dead reckoning (15% of the Distance (according to IAMSAR vol.II, table N-3). SEARCH AREA: 50,1 (NM) 2 The calculation gives a very large search area and according to this a very small Probability Of Detection (POD) with the same amount of Search and Rescue Units available. The JRCC calculated Search area and the inquiry team calculated Search area are roughly the same. 6

7. TAK SARIS CALCULATION (DATUM TID at 0847Z ) 7 SEARCH AREA: 27,8 (NM) 2

8. TAK SARIS CALCULATION (DATUM TID at 1715Z ) 8 SEARCH AREA: 50.1 (NM) 2

9. TAK SARIS CALCULATION (DATUM TID at 0800Z-1000Z-1200Z-1600Z-1715Z-1926Z) 9

10. ALLOCATING OF SEARCH AND RESCUE UNITS IN THE SEARCH AREA 10

11. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH In the JRCC report there is not noted exact indication of the Track Spacing (S) which should be used In the Report there are listed different values of used Track Spacing (S) In the Report are listed S = 0,5 NM and S = 0,2 NM used by the helo’s There is not listed Track Spacing (S) for the surface units in the Report Which Track Spacing has been used by the Surface Search and Rescue Units? Sweep Width uncorrected (W u ) for a Person in Water with Lifejacket is determined to 0,4 NM (without Lifejacket 0,1 NM) 11 SSSpptChpt15Weather040609.ppt

12. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH (POD AT S = 0,5 NM) 12

13. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH S = 0,5 NM 13 CSP W c = 0,4 S = 0,5 POD = 68% S=0,5 W c =0,4

14. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH Interaction of unfortunate events 14 CSP W c = 0,4 S = 0,5 POD = 68% Resulting Drift Vector

15. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH Interaction of unfortunate events 15 CSP W c = 0,4 S = 0,5 POD = 68% Resulting Drift Vector

16. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH Interaction of unfortunate events 16 CSP W c = 0,4 S = 0,5 POD = 68% Resulting Drift Vector

17. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH Interaction of unfortunate events 17 CSP W c = 0,4 S = 0,5 POD 68% Resulting Drift Vector

18. ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED SEARCH (POD AT S = 0,2 sømil) 18

19. AREA WHICH CAN BE COVERED BY HELOCOPTER WITH A TRACK SPACING (S) = 0,1 NM 19

20. SEARCHED AREA BY RES-510 AT 1040Z 20

21. SEARCHED AREA BY RES-510 AT 1111Z 21

22. SEARCHED AREA BY RES-510 AT 1123Z 22

23. SEARCHED AREA BY RES-510 AT 1213Z 23

24. SEARCHED AREA 6 hours trails 24

25. SEARCHED AREA 12 hours trails 25 It seems that the hole area is effectivly search. BUT the Search is carried out through a long time. That means the missing Person may have stayed in the search area in the search period without being observed. The Search was terminated at 1926Z, without finding the person

26. THE PERSON FOUND 26 The Person was found dead by a passing ship the 22 nd of August at 1103Z. The person was still wearing his Lifejacket.

27. CONCLUSION OF THE ANALYTICAL WORK Uncertainty of the initial Position Uncertainty of the time of falling overboard The results of these uncertainties give a big Search area Very good Search conditions, weak wind, sea state low, Total Water Current low, good visibility. Search in day time. MOB wearing Lifejacket (improves the possibility of being found) Initial scrambling of the Search and Rescue Units - OK. A Search area must have been calculated immediately after the alarm call – when the first SRU will be in the area. (the area was calculated to DATUM time at 1715Z.) Search And Rescue Mission Coordinator (SMC) should be fully aware of the Track Spacing (S) and communicate the size of Track Spacing (S) to the On Scene Coordinator (OSC). 27

28. CONCLUSION OF THE ANALYTICAL WORK The calculated Search area (21,2 (NM) 2 ) could have been covered in the spent time with a Track Spacing (S) = 0,1 NM Having focus on the position and time uncertainties of the incident the applied X-error (1 NM) should have been provided greater. (2,5 NM, which would have generated a search area = 27,8 (NM) 2 ) Lack of announcement about the size of the Track Spacing (S) has meant that a part of the actual search was caried out with a Probability Of Detection (POD) between 60% and 70% with the reported Track Spacing (S) values. (May be less for the surface units?) Allocating and scrambling of the Search and Rescue Units (SRU) must be immediately atfer the alarm call and not during the search time. 28

29. WHAT DO YOU SEE ON THE PICTURE? 29 PERSON IN THE WATER WEARING AN ORANGE SURVIVALSUIT

30. CONCLUSION Based on the analysis, it must be acknowledged that the person was not found alive. This can be attributed to the interaction of the various factors described in this analysis. An important factor is the use of optimistic sizes of Track Spacing (S). Another major factor is the uncertain incident position and the incident time. The area could be covered with the allocated units with a sufficiently high POD by making optimum use of the Search and Rescue Units from the beginning. 30

31. CLOSING IT IS AN ”EASY TASK” TO MAKE THIS ANALYSIS JOB BEHIND A DISK WHERE ALL INFORMATION ARE PROVIDED WITHOUT STRESS AND PHONES RINGING. SOMETHING ELSE IS THE REAL WORLD

32. Efterfølgende analyse af hændelsen Analysen er efterfølgende foretaget af: KL John Strøbæk, MHV MG Bjarne Toft Madsen, MHV OK Anders Møller, TAK 32 SSSpptChpt15Weather040609.ppt