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Media Hype. Media Hype Rule 1: Don’t fall in love with one stock.

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Presentation on theme: "Media Hype. Media Hype Rule 1: Don’t fall in love with one stock."— Presentation transcript:

1 Media Hype

2 Media Hype Rule 1: Don’t fall in love with one stock.

3 Fiduciary and investment advisory services are provided by Wealth Management LLC, registered Investment Advisor. Administration services are provided by Retirement Plan Consultants LLC. “Expert” Picks These are the best stock picks?? ERICSSON $26$12 FAMILY GOLF CENTERS $23ZERO GENERAL MOTORS $73 BANKRUPT (2009) HOMEBASE $73 BANKRUPT (2001) KNIGHTSBRIDGE TANKERS $22$9 MCI WORLDCOM $59GONE (since 2002) CHARLES SCHWAB $58$26 1998 12-31-13 STOCKshare price share price Source: Article “Expert” Picks by Vestory, Mar 30, 2012 http://www.vestory.com/2012/03/30/expert-picks/ The stock price from this original article was updated as of 12-31-13 using Morningstar.http://www.vestory.com/2012/03/30/expert-picks/

4 Investment Media Hype Cramer Can’t Beat the index Source: Jim Cramer’s Mad Money Stock Picks for Thursday, January 6, 2011. The S&P data are powered by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Information from sources deemed reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results. I’d be mad about my money!

5 Media Hype Rule 2: Understand that they sell fear.

6 % Total Return sourced from Morningstar: January 1, 1981 to December 31, 2013 We Believe in Markets – Not Managers Cell Phones?SPAM? OR Motorola 1,126% (33 Year Return) Hormel Foods 19,621% (33 Year Return) US Large GrowthUS Small Cap What Would Have Been Your Investment Choice in 1980?

7 The Guide to Wealth Source: behaviorgap.com What Not To Do (What People Do) What To Do (What Our Clients Do) Sell High + Buy Low = Rebalancing

8 Emotional Investing can take you off course

9 1949 20.2 1951 20.7 1963 21.0 19701982 0.021.0 195319931996 0.711.121.4 201120041944 0.812.021.5 196019591983 1.212.722.0 1987195219791997 1.713.422.631.4 1948196819982003 2.114.124.331.6 1939196519551985 2.814.525.232.2 1947200619991936 3.615.525.232.3 197319661934194219761980 -18.1-8.74.316.126.832.8 192919321984196419611927 -15.2-8.64.516.126.933.5 200019402007197119381991 -11.4-7.15.816.128.234.7 200119462005201219432013 -11.1-6.26.216.228.435.2 196919901978198619671995 -10.9-6.07.516.228.736.8 19301962197719561972200919281935 -28.5-10.2-4.38.316.828.838.444.4 200819741957198119262010198919451958 -36.7-27.0-10.1-3.68.417.728.938.545.0 19311937200219411994199219881950197519541933 -43.5-34.7-21.1-10.0-0.19.818.029.638.850.056.7 -50% to -40%-40% to -30%-30% to -20%-20% to -10%-10% to 0%0% to 10%10% to 20%20% to 30%30% to 40%40% to 50%50% to 60% Annual Return Range Keep the big picture in mind…. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1-10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it defines as the aggregate capitalization of all securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 1926–2013 Positive Years: 66(75%) Negative Years: 22(25%)

10 Keep the big picture in mind…. To put in real terms: it is comparable to winning 10 football games out of a 14 game season Go Huskers!!

11 Media Hype Rule 3: Ignore them and keep your emotions in check….

12 After hearing the “experts”...

13 Any questions….. Thanks for listening!


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