1. Unemployment E conomics P R I N C I P L E S O F N. Gregory Mankiw Chapter 28

2. In this chapter, look for the answers to these questions:  How is unemployment measured?  What is the “natural rate of unemployment”?  Why are there always some people unemployed?  How is unemployment affected by unions and minimum wage laws?  What is the theory of efficiency wages, and how does it help explain unemployment? 1

3. UNEMPLOYMENT 2 Labor Force Statistics  Produced by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which works within the U.S. Department of Labor  Based on regular survey of 60,000 households (Current Population Survey)  Based on “adult population” (16 or older)

4. UNEMPLOYMENT 3 Labor Force Statistics BLS divides population into 3 groups:  Employed: paid employees, self-employed, and unpaid workers in a family business  Unemployed: people not working who have looked for work during previous 4 weeks  Not in the labor force: everyone else The labor force is the total # of workers, including the employed and unemployed.

5. UNEMPLOYMENT 4 labor force participation rate labor force adult population = 100 x Labor Force Statistics Labor force participation rate: % of the adult population that is in the labor force Unemployment rate (“u-rate”): % of the labor force that is unemployed u-rate # of unemployed labor force = 100 x

6. UNEMPLOYMENT 5 Labor Market Statistics for Different Groups  The BLS publishes these statistics for demographic groups within the population.  These data reveal widely different labor market experiences for different groups.

7. The labor-market experiences of various demographic groups 1 6 Demographic GroupUnemployment Rate Labor-force Participation Rate Adults (ages 20 and older) White, male White, female Black, male Black, female Teenagers (ages 16–19) White, male White, female Black, male Black, female 3.7% 3.6 7.9 6.7 15.7 12.1 33.8 25.3 76.3% 60.1 71.2 64.0 44.3 44.6 29.4 31.2 This table shows the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate of various groups in the U.S. population for 2007

8. UNEMPLOYMENT 7 What Does the U-Rate Really Measure? The u-rate is not a perfect indicator of joblessness or the health of the labor market: 1. It excludes discouraged workers. 2. It does not show underemployment. 3. It cannot account for misreporting of status.

9. UNEMPLOYMENT 8 The Duration of Unemployment Most spells of unemployment are short:  Typically 1/3 of the unemployed have been unemployed under 5 weeks, 2/3 have been unemployed under 14 weeks.  Only 20% have been unemployed over 6 months. Yet, most observed unemployment is long term.  The small group of long-term unemployed persons has fairly little turnover, so it accounts for most of the unemployment observed over time. How could these facts impact policymakers?

10. UNEMPLOYMENT 9 Cyclical Unemployment vs. the Natural Rate There’s always some unemployment, though the u-rate fluctuates from year to year. Natural rate of unemployment  the normal rate of unemployment around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates Cyclical unemployment  the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate  associated with the business cycle

11. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1960196519701975198019851990199520002005 U.S. Unemployment, 1960-2007 Natural rate of unemployment Unemployment rate percentage of labor force

12. UNEMPLOYMENT 11 Explaining the Natural Rate: An Overview Even when the economy is doing well, there is always some unemployment, including: Frictional unemployment  occurs when workers spend time searching for the jobs that best suit their skills and tastes  short-term for most workers  potential reasons: job search and sectoral shifts  policy solutions? Structural unemployment  occurs when there are fewer jobs than workers  usually longer-term  potential reasons: minimum wage laws, unions, efficiency wages

13. UNEMPLOYMENT 12 Explaining Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment occurs when not enough jobs to go around. W L D S WEWE actual wage W1W1 unemp- loyment Occurs when wage is kept above equilibrium.

14. UNEMPLOYMENT 13 Efficiency Wages 1. Worker health 2. Worker turnover 3. Worker quality 4. Worker effort Four reasons why firms might pay efficiency wages:

15. CHAPTER SUMMARY  The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work who do not have jobs.  Unemployment and labor force participation vary widely across demographic groups.  The natural rate of unemployment is the normal rate of unemployment around which the actual rate fluctuates. Cyclical unemployment is the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate and is connected to short-term economic fluctuations. 14

16. CHAPTER SUMMARY  The natural rate includes frictional unemployment and structural unemployment.  Frictional unemployment occurs when workers take time to search for the right jobs.  Structural unemployment occurs when above- equilibrium wages result in a surplus of labor.  Three reasons for above-equilibrium wages include minimum wage laws, unions, and efficiency wages. 15