1. The global implementation programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics Seminar on the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 in Africa Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11 to 15 April 2011 Herman Smith UNSD/DESA

2.  Introduction  Luxembourg Recommendations  Statistical production process framework  SNA implementation - Impediments  2008 SNA Implementation Strategy  2008 SNA Implementation Programme  Global initiatives by the ISWGNA  Regional initiatives  Links to other global statistical initiatives  Monitoring the SNA implementation  Short term economic indicators Outline of presentation

3.  The 39 th session of UNSC in 2008 requested the ISWGNA to come up with an implementation strategy  Long term development of SNA and the its implementation strategy  International Conference on International Outreach and Coordination in National Accounts for Sustainable Growth and Development, 6-8 May 2008, Luxembourg  High Level Forum for the Long-Term Development of the SNA, 17-18 Nov 2008, Washington DC  Inputs from these events considered by ISWGNA for formulating the 2008 SNA implementation strategy INTRODUCTION cont

4.  Luxembourg conference was attended by developing countries, development partners  It is recognized that availability of the good quality basic economic statistics in a sustainable manner is key for implementation of international standards on NAs and economic statistics  Direction guiding the LRs can be characterized as  global coordination with  regional implementation and outreach  to strengthen the national statistical capacity for the compilation and reporting of national accounts and related basic statistics. Luxembourg Recommendations (LRs)

5. 1. Strategic planning Frameworks (SPF) 2. Coordination, monitoring and reporting 3. Global Governance 4. National Statistical Capacity Building 5. SNA Knowledge Platform: statistics, information technology and management Luxembourg Recommendations (LRs)

6.  The framework provides a structure for the SNA implementation programme to address and reinforce both ◦ statistical institutional infrastructure and ◦ the collection and reporting of statistics. Statistical Production Process Framework

7.  The framework might be arranged according to a set of building blocks.  Institutional setting - management and internal policy regarding the administrative, human resources and financial regulations; policies on confidentiality and quality adherence; ICT policy on data collection, compilation and dissemination;  Registers and frames of statistical units from which administrative and survey source data are collected  Collections through administrative sources and statistical surveys  SNA as an integration framework  Dissemination of the statistics and metadata to users Statistical Production Process Framework

8. Institutional Setting Information, Communication Technology (ICT) Management and internal policy Institutional arrangements Registers and Frames Surveys Integration Framework Dissemination Structure for organizing the information base based on a stylized statistical production model

9.  Insufficient staff and training.  For exhaustive coverage of economic activities – data collection mechanism and supporting infrastructure need to be improved  Quality and policy relevance of basic economic and macroeconomic statistics are not well promoted  Lack of modern management, ICT infrastructure in the NSOs  Lack of coordination between TAs providing country, regional and international agencies  Reference manuals and compilation guidance not easily accessible. SNA implementation - Impediments

10. Objectives  Promoting international coordination among development partners;  Implementing regional programmes, guidelines and procedures for coordination, monitoring and reporting on performance;  Strengthening national statistical capacity for national accounts and related basic statistics;  Advocating the use of NA and statistics in general for policy purposes Implementation Strategy

11. Principles  At its 40th session the UNSC approved the 2008 SNA implementation strategy which is guided by three distinct principles Strategic planning; Coordination, monitoring and reporting; and Improving statistical systems Implementation Strategy

12.  During 2009 further consultations with RC and countries to draft an implementation programme based on the implementation strategy  ISWGNA submitted the implementation programme to the UNSC in Feb 2010 Implementation programme

13.  UNSC in Feb 2010 supported the implementation programme and encouraged countries to develop their own programmes of implementation  The Implementation Programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics represents a global statistical initiative  UNSD conduct series of seminars with RC to align regional and global implementation programmes Implementation programme

14. To assist countries in developing the statistical and institutional capacity to: (a) Make the conceptual change over from the 1993 SNA to the 2008 SNA (b) Improve the scope, detail and quality of the national accounts and supporting economic statistics. Objective of the Global Statistical Initiative

15. The efficiency and sustainability of the initiative rest on the agreed principles of the implementation strategy: (a) strategic planning (b) coordination, monitoring and reporting (c) improving statistical systems Principles of the global initiative

16. Strategic planning is a key principle in mobilizing political and financial support for investment in statistics to connect national development objectives with a programme of work for statistical capacity-building.  Identify the current strengths and weaknesses of statistical capacity  Lay out a schedule of tasks to mitigate weaknesses Strategic planning

17.  Best practices are available on how to develop SPFs for the development of statistics:  PARIS 21’s guidelines on National Strategies for the Development of Statistics (NSDSs)  United Nations Development Assistance Frameworks (UNDAFs)  General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)  World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategies  World Bank/IMF Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) Strategic Planning Framework

18. The principle of coordination, monitoring and reporting ensures that international and regional organizations, other donors and recipient countries have clear roles and that their actions are complementary and effective. Expected to increase likelihood of success in developing national capacity for the SNA implementation Clear demarcation of roles of national and regional implementation agencies, international organizations, donors, policy planners and other stakeholders  their actions are coordinated, monitored and reported against agreed benchmarks Coordination, monitoring and reporting

19. The principle of improving statistical systems is undertaken through the strengthening of the national statistical system covering each of the building blocks of the statistical production process.  providing training and technical cooperation  preparing manuals and handbooks  sponsoring research. Improving statistical systems

20. (a) Use of National Strategies for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) as the strategic planning framework (b) The programme information structure built around the statistical production process, scope and compliance for the national accounts and supporting economic statistics (c) The modalities of statistical capacity building through training and technical cooperation, publication of manuals and handbooks, research and advocacy (d) The stages of implementation leading to the change over to the 2008 SNA. Elements to operationalise the initiative

21.  NSDS is the most widely used tool for statistical planning in developing countries.  The members of the ISWGNA will work via PARIS21 to further develop the guidelines for the elaboration of NSDSs.  The regional commissions should coordinate this review of the NSDS for the implementation needs of the 2008 SNA. NSDS as Strategic planning framework

22. To facilitate the coordination, monitoring and reporting on the SNA implementation in the multi-stakeholder environment.  Frameworks Minimum Required Data Set (MRDS) based on UN-NAQ IMF GDDS and SDDS  Report on the statistical process data quality The programme information structure

23.  Training and technical cooperation  Manuals and handbooks  Research  Advocacy The modalities of statistical capacity building

24. Develop standardised training material Mobilize the existing regional knowledge and training network Develop knowledge base of training material Training and technical cooperation

25. To provide methodological support in the implementation of the 2008 SNA for countries at different stages of development or milestones. The 2008 SNA website has been extended to include a web-based knowledge base on methods and country practices on the implementation of the 2008 SNA. Manuals and handbooks

26. Research Research has already been initiated for the treatment of permits and aspects of globalization. Other topical areas have been identified and will be progressively undertaken in support of the implementation of the new concepts of the 2008 SNA. Advocacy Advocacy to support an ongoing dialogue among statistical producers and users has been recognized as a critical element in the promotion of the statistical capacity building. Research and advocacy

27.  Three stages  Review  Adaption  Application  Each country will determine the duration of the various stages. However, it is expected that from 2014 onwards, many Member States will change over to the 2008 SNA Implementation stages

28. Review of strategic framework and detailing of national and regional implementation programmes Stage I - Review

29. Statement of strategy – Development of an economic statistics programme for compiling the required scope and detail of the National Accounts to inform policy makers Diagnosis of current situation – Assessment of the national statistical system to support the national accounts compilation Development of strategic vision for national accounts and supporting statistics shared among stakeholders Develop implementation plan based on agreed priorities with a minimum set of core indicators Stage I - Review

30. Stage II. Adaptation of classification frameworks, business registers and frames, surveys, administrative data sources and information technology infrastructure; Stage II - Adaption

31. Stage III. Application of adapted frameworks and source data, backcasting and changeover to 2008 SNA. Stage III - Application

32.  Workshops and training courses  Finalizing handbooks, such as measuring capital and intellectual property products  Attention to coordination between ISWGNA members providing TA and training  Developing standardized training material on the 2008 SNA and related topics  Research New proposals to ISWGNA – FISIM Advisory expert group Global initiatives by the ISWGNA

33.  The important role of regional commissions in the implementation of the 2008 SNA  The Regional Commissions with their regional partners have established advisory groups on national accounts to advise them in formulating regional implementation programmes for the 2008 SNA and the supporting statistics. Regional initiatives

34. The ISWGNA in collaboration with regional commissions will actively pursue and foster appropriate cooperation with  The 2011 round of the ICP Programme  The global strategy for agricultural and rural statistics led by FAO  The Partnership in Statistics for Development in the Twenty-first Century (PARIS 21). Links to other global statistical initiatives

35.  A set of six milestones to assess the scope of accounts compiled by countries  To provide guidance to countries considering expanding the scope of their national accounts  To serve as a monitoring instrument for measuring the level of national accounts development Monitoring the 1993 SNA implementation

36. 1. The milestones taken as the order in which additions to national accounts must be approached. 2. The milestones make no reference to the detail of national accounts implementation 3. The milestones make no reference to conceptual or quality issues Limitations of the milestones

37.  Three data sets to assess the scope of national accounts implementation according to the 1993 SNA ◦ The minimum requirement data set (MRDS) - milestones 1 and 2. ◦ The recommended data set - importance in assessing developments of an economy ◦ The desired data set, which comprises useful data that should be compiled if possible  Report to UNSC an assessment of the MRDS based on the United Nations national accounts database. Required data sets

38.  Conceptual questionnaire  To assess the compliance with major 1993 SNA concepts a set of questions  Quality assessment  The IMF quality assessment framework to assess the quality of the national accounts Concepts and quality assessment

39.  The 1993 SNA scope and compliance measures are deemed to be adequate to also assess the scope and compliance for the 2008 SNA.  However  need for more timely information to facilitate appropriate policy responses  include quarterly national accounts as an option Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA

40. The MRDS now include:  quarterly accounts  nominal and volume measure of GDP by industry or by expenditure  integrated accounts until net lending for the total economy and the rest of the world.  annual institutional sector accounts until net lending  corporate, government, households and NPISH’s  quarterly compilation of these sectors is now recommended. Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA

41.  Recommended set include the annual compilation  Sectoral financial accounts and balance sheets and other changes in assets accounts  Desired set include the quarterly compilation  Sectoral financial accounts and balance sheets and other changes in assets accounts  The compliance questionnaire was adjusted to reflect the 2008 SNA concepts Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA

42. Response to the global financial and economic crisis A series on meetings at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009  2008 SNA the overarching framework for economic statistics, able to incorporates measurement issues arising from the financial crises  There was not a lack of data, but information not accessible

43. Response to the global financial and economic crisis Countries and international organizations launched coordinated statistical initiatives The focus of the initiatives were identifying and remedying data gaps to monitor rapid changes in economic activity, to allow for timely and measured policy responses, as well as to improve the dissemination and communication of available relevant information

44. Work on short-term economic statistics IMF initiative with IAG to look at data gaps for G20 countries Joint initiative by UNSD and Eurostat in collaboration with Statistics Canada, Statistics Netherlands, and Russian Federal State Statistics Service based on recommendations of 3 international seminars Discussion moderated through 3 Seminars Eurostat colloquium

45. Work on short-term economic statistics – 4 themes Rapid Estimates ◦ policy need for early official assessment of short-term changes in economic activities ◦ aims to provide best practices and harmonized principles and terminology ◦ global assessment to obtain glossary of terms and inventory from countries on rapid estimates ◦ develop handbook on rapid estimates to provide guidance

46. Work on short-term economic statistics – 4 themes Business Cycle Composite Indicators ◦ Develop guidance on the compilation, presentation and interpretation of business cycle composite indicators ◦ Handbook will be useful for those that want to compile business cycle composite indicators, but ◦ Also those compiling and releasing short term economic statistics used as component data for the construction of cyclical indicators.

47. Work on short-term economic statistics – 4 themes Tendency Surveys ◦ A reliable system of qualitative short term indicators to complement the system of quantitative short term statistics ◦ Tendency surveys are cost effective for generating timely information on short term economic development ◦ Handbook will build and expand on the current guidelines of the European Commission and OECD on tendency surveys

48. Work on short-term economic statistics – 4 themes Data Template and Analytical Indicators ◦ Establish an internationally accepted data and metadata template for short-term economic indicators ◦ To develop a guide on the data template and reference metadata structure to assist the compilation of the short term indicators ◦ Explore feasibility of centralized national data hubs ◦ Using modern data sharing and exchange techniques, such as SDMX and modern visualization tools for data dissemination and communication

49. Outcome of UNSC Discussions Endorsed proposed programme, deliverables and governance structure Implementation to take into account requirements of national accounts national statistical system other national governance arrangements

50. Outcome of UNSC Discussions Member States encouraged to set up national central data hubs on voluntary basis with f lexible time frame submit compilation practices and use of short-term economic indicators to Knowledge Base on Economic Statistics

51. Outcome of UNSC Discussions UNSC urged international and regional orgs to harmonise practices on short-term economic indicators requested to strengthen training and capacity building requested to report back to Commission in due course with detailed work programme on short-term economic statistics resources required implementation limitations

52. Short term indicator data template Set 1 National accounts Set 2 Production and turnover Set 3: Price Indicators Set 4: Labour market indicators Set 5: External sector indicators Set 6: Financial sector indicators Set 7: General government sector indicators Set 8: Household sector indicators Set 9: Non-financial corporations sector indicators Set 10: Financial market indicators Set 11: Real estate market indicators Set 12: Economic sentiment

53. Indicator description Set 1 National accounts 1.1Quarterly national accounts: Flash GDP estimate 1.2Quarterly national accounts: GDP full release 1.2.1by expenditure 1.2.2by production 1.2.3by income 1.3Quarterly sector accounts Short term indicator data template

54. Set 2 Production and turnover 2.1 Production index for industry, by major division (mining, manufacturing, electricity, water, etc.) 2.2Production index for construction 2.3Turnover index for retail trade by major division 2.4Turnover index for industry by major division 2.5 Turnover index for other services by major division (excluding financial services and non-commercial services) 2.6 New orders index for industry by major ISIC division (for those that work on order) 2.7 New orders index for construction (building permits or housing starts) 2.8 Commodity production (as relevant at country level data on commodity productions and other indicators of economic activity) Agricultural products Minerals New car registrations/sales New commercial vehicle registrations/sales Tourist arrivals

55. Set 3: Price Indicators 3.1Consumer price index 3.2Producer price index 3.3Import price index 3.4Export price index Set 4: Labour market indicators 4.1Unemployment 4.2Unemployment rate 4.3Employment total and by economic activity 4.4Hourly wage rate 4.5Hours of work

56. Set 5: External sector indicators 5.1Exports and imports (of goods and services) 5.2 International investment position (IIP), specify balances and components 5.3Official reserve assets 5.4External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency) Set 6: Financial sector indicators 6.1Central Bank net foreign assets 6.2Central Bank domestic lending 6.3Central Bank reserve money 6.4Depository corporations net foreign assets 6.5Depository corporations domestic lending 6.6Depository corporations broad money liabilities 6.7 Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and liabilities by sector. 6.8Financial corporate profits 6.9Financial corporate debt 6.1 0 Others as relevant: nonperforming loans of depository corporations, capital adequacy ratios, other financial stability indicators, etc.

57. Set 7: General government sector indicators 7.1Revenue 7.2Expense 7.3Net operating balance (= Revenue – Expense) 7.4Net acquisition of non-financial assets 7.5Expenditure 7.6Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue - Expenditure) 7.7Gross debt Set 8: Household sector indicators 8.1Household disposable income 8.2Household saving 8.3Household debt 8.4 Other as relevant: disposable income, debt service and principal payments, household debt, etc.

58. Set 9: Non-financial corporations sector indicators 9.1Non-financial corporate profits 9.2Non-financial corporate debt 9.3Other as relevant. Set 10: Financial market indicators 10.1 Interest rates, as relevant short and long term money and bond market rates 10.2Exchange rates, as relevant spot and forward markets 10.3Nominal and real effective exchange rate 10.4Stock market indicators 10.5 Others as relevant : spreads between lending and deposit rates, highest-lowest interbank rate; etc.

59. Set 11: Real estate market indicators 11.1Residential property price index 11.2New house sales 11.3Existing house sales Set 12: Economic sentiment 12.1Consumer confidence 12.2Business confidence 12.3Composite Business Cycle Indicators 12.3.1Leading Indicator 12.3.2Coincident Indicator 12.3.3Lagging Indicator

60. Thank You