1. Predicting global mean temperature

2. Developments at ECMWF Merge of monthly forecast into EPS –Medium-range EPS is now continuous with monthly forecast –Resolution “steps down” from T399 to T255 after 10 days –Hindcasts also have high resolution for first 10 days –Forecasting system changes every few months – hindcasts produced in near-real time. –Runs to 15 days every day; to 32 days only once per week –Ocean coupling switched off for first 10 days – for the moment –Experimental runs to 45 days –A first step towards unified NWP/seasonal prediction ?? Tim Stockdale, WGSIP12

3. Monthly All India Precipitation VEPS SEAS3 Correlation with IMD station data- 1991- 2007 (Slides from Frederic Vitart)

4. Interannual variability of Atlantic hurricanes 1991-2007 AugustSeptemberOctober VAREPS Seas - Month 1 Seas – Month 2 0.77 0.31 -0.03 0.37 0.33 0.23 0.69 0.18 Correlation with HURDAT

5. AugustSeptemberOctober VEPS Seas- Month 1 Seas- Month 2 0.83 0.77 0.69 0.87 0.86 0.34 0.82 0.80 0.77 Interannual variability of Accumulated Cyclone Energy 1991-2007 Correlation with HURDAT

6. Global Scores 2mTm- Ensemble mean correlation with analysis August 1981-2007 SEAS3- Month 2 VEPS

7. Developments at ECMWF Seasonal prediction “System 4” –New ocean model – NEMO –New ocean assimilation system – 3D/4D VAR –New coupling interface – OASIS3 –Better treatment of lakes and sea-ice –Hope to have improved stratosphere (extra resolution, volcanic aerosols, improved gravity wave parameterization) –Consistent land surface initialization (stand-alone analysis system) –(Latest IFS cycle is much more active in tropics, generally more accurate, but has problems with easterly bias in equatorial winds, at least at TL159)

8. Developments at ECMWF Decadal prediction Only as part of EU-funded projects: –ENSEMBLES –THOR –COMBINE EC-EARTH –European group adapting the ECMWF model for climate change work –Attempt to keep technical infrastructure integrated with ECMWF –We may get feedback from some aspects of their work