1. State Implementation Plan (SIP) Development Process Presentation to: Centralina Nonattainment Area Elected Officials and City and County Managers and Planners Donnie Redmond April 8, 2005

2. 2 Outline Background Timeline Current DAQ effort Modeling results Future: Potential Developments What do you need to remember from this presentation?

3. 3 Background Federal Clean Air Act –Ozone formation Designation –Impact New Source Review (NSR) Transportation conformity State Implementation Plan (SIP) Difference between –Attainment demonstration –Redesignation request –Transportation conformity

4. 4 Attainment Demonstration Focus of todays presentation Process that DAQ is now undertaking –Essentially, a modeling exercise to demonstrate that the State has a valid plan to attain the standard –Does not address Actual current air quality Transportation conformity

5. 5 Redesignation Request Separate process to be undertaken at a future date –Local field monitors show standards have been met

6. 6 Current Ozone Values (Standard is less than 85 ppm) County2001-2003 average 2002-2004 average Lincoln9286 Mecklenburg9892 Rowan10094 Union8885

7. 7 Transportation Conformity SIP contains a budget for each source segment –Point sources Industries –Area sources Dry cleaners, gas stations, print shops, etc. –Mobile Onroad, offroad –Biogenics

8. 8 Attainment Demonstration Focus of todays presentation Process that DAQ is currently undertaking –Develop emissions inventory –Select meteorological event –Perform computer modeling –Show that area is projected to attain standard during summer of 2009 –Submit to EPA by June 2007

9. 9 Timeline Summer 2005: Modeling results Fall 2005: Strategies Spring 2006: Public hearings Fall 2006: Environmental Management Commission (EMC) approval Early 2007: Legislative review June 2007: Due to EPA

10. 10 Current DAQ Efforts Emissions Inventory –Factor in growth Model existing regulations –Federal control measures Cleaner vehicles Cleaner fuels NOx SIP Call/Clean Air Interstate Rule –State control measures Better auto emissions testing procedure Expanded auto emissions testing Clean Smokestacks Act

11. 11 Modeling Results When will they be ready –June/July What they will mean –If we are clean –If we are not

12. 12 Modeling Results If we show attainment –Remember This is modeling demonstration of 2009, not actual results for 2005 –Proceed with the public process –Submit SIP to EPA

13. 13 Modeling Results If we do not show attainment –All Federal and State measures have been included –Must adopt additional measures Evaluate local measures (local input) –Re-run models –Repeat until we can show attainment

14. 14 Local Measures Focus on major emission sources Reduction in vehicle miles traveled Nonroad engines –Generators, construction equipment, lawnmowers, etc. Fleet turnover Alternative fuels Diesel retrofit, anti-idling policies Growth management Episodic controls

15. 15 15% VOC reduction (VOC = volatile organic compounds) Additional requirement for moderate ozone areas Independent of ozone results Example measures –Reduce volatility of gasoline –Enhanced gasoline vapor recovery –Additional controls on specific point or area sources

16. 16 Future: Potential Developments When we get through this current process, we cannot declare victory and go home … Growth assumptions may change Science may change –EPA is now reviewing ozone and PM standards Sept 2006: Fine particles Dec 2007: Ozone

17. 17 What do you need to take away from this … Modeling results will be ready in June/July If they show attainment –Be happy, but remember things may change in the future –Dont forget the 15% VOC reduction If they dont show attainment –Well need to consider local measures –Well need them rather quickly to meet deadlines

18. 18 For additional info Donnie Redmond –Asst. Chief for Planning –919-733-1481 –Donnie.Redmond@ncmail.net DAQ website –www.ncair.org –To see live air quality values http://daq.state.nc.us/ambient/monitors/