1. Utility Theory & MDPs Tamara Berg CS 560 Artificial Intelligence Many slides throughout the course adapted from Svetlana Lazebnik, Dan Klein, Stuart Russell, Andrew Moore, Percy Liang, Luke Zettlemoyer

2. Announcements HW2 will be online tomorrow –Due Oct 8 (but make sure to start early!) As always, you can work in groups of up to 3 and submit 1 written/coding solution (pairs don’t need to be the same as HW1)

3. AI/Games in the news Sept 14, 2015

4. Review from last class

6. A more abstract game tree Terminal utilities (for MAX) 322 3 A two-ply game

7. Computing the minimax value of a node Minimax(node) =  Utility(node) if node is terminal  max action Minimax(Succ(node, action)) if player = MAX  min action Minimax(Succ(node, action)) if player = MIN 322 3

8. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree

9. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33

10. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33 22

11. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33 22  14

12. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 33 22 55

13. Alpha-beta pruning It is possible to compute the exact minimax decision without expanding every node in the game tree 3 3 22 2

14. Resource Limits Alpha-beta still has to search all the way to terminal states for portions of the search space. Instead we can cut off search earlier and apply a heuristic evaluation function. –Search a limited depth of tree –Replace terminal utilities with evaluation function for non-terminal positions. –Performance of the program highly depends on its evaluation function.

15. Evaluation function Cut off search at a certain depth and compute the value of an evaluation function for a state instead of its minimax value –The evaluation function may be thought of as the probability of winning from a given state or the expected value of that state A common evaluation function is a weighted sum of features: Eval(s) = w 1 f 1 (s) + w 2 f 2 (s) + … + w n f n (s) Evaluation functions may be learned from game databases or by having the program play many games against itself

17. Cutting off search Horizon effect: you may incorrectly estimate the value of a state by overlooking an event that is just beyond the depth limit –For example, a damaging move by the opponent that can be delayed but not avoided Possible remedies –Quiescence search: do not cut off search at positions that are unstable – for example, are you about to lose an important piece? –Singular extension: a strong move that should be tried when the normal depth limit is reached

18. Additional techniques Transposition table to store previously expanded states Forward pruning to avoid considering all possible moves Lookup tables for opening moves and endgames

19. Iterative deepening search Use DFS as a subroutine 1.Check the root 2.Do a DFS with depth limit 1 3.If there is no path of length 1, do a DFS search with depth limit 2 4.If there is no path of length 2, do a DFS with depth limit 3. 5.And so on… Why might this be useful for multi-player games?

20. Chess playing systems Baseline system: 200 million node evaluations per move (3 min), minimax with a decent evaluation function and quiescence search –5-ply ≈ human novice Add alpha-beta pruning –10-ply ≈ typical PC, experienced player Deep Blue: 30 billion evaluations per move, singular extensions, evaluation function with 8000 features, large databases of opening and endgame moves –14-ply ≈ Garry Kasparov Recent state of the art (Hydra, ca. 2006): 36 billion evaluations per second, advanced pruning techniquesHydra –18-ply ≈ better than any human alive?

21. Games of chance How to incorporate dice throwing into the game tree?

23. Maximum Expected Utility Why should we calculate expected utility? Principle of maximum expected utility: an agent should choose the action which maximizes its expected utility, given its knowledge General principle for decision making (definition of rationality)

28. Reminder: Expectations The expected value of a function is its average value, weighted by the probability distribution over inputs Example: How long to get to the airport? Length of driving time as a function of traffic: L(none)=20, L(light)=30, L(heavy)=60 P(T)={none=0.25, light=0.5, heavy=0.25} What is my expected driving time: E[L(T)]? E[L(T)] = L(none)*P(none)+L(light)*P(light)+L(heavy)*P(heavy) E[L(T)] = (20*.25) + (30*.5) + (60*0.25) = 35

31. Games of chance

32. Expectiminimax: for chance nodes, average values weighted by the probability of each outcome –Nasty branching factor, defining evaluation functions and pruning algorithms more difficult Monte Carlo simulation: when you get to a chance node, simulate a large number of games with random dice rolls and use win percentage as evaluation function –Can work well for games like Backgammon

34. Partially observable games Card games like bridge and poker Monte Carlo simulation: deal all the cards randomly in the beginning and pretend the game is fully observable –“Averaging over clairvoyance” –Problem: this strategy does not account for bluffing, information gathering, etc.

35. Origins of game playing algorithms Minimax algorithm: Ernst Zermelo, 1912, first published in 1928 by John von NeumannJohn von Neumann Chess playing with evaluation function, quiescence search, selective search: Claude Shannon, 1949 (paper)paper Alpha-beta search: John McCarthy, 1956 Checkers program that learns its own evaluation function by playing against itself: Arthur Samuel, 1956

37. Game playing algorithms today Computers are better than humans: –Checkers: solved in 2007solved in 2007 –Chess: IBM Deep Blue defeated Kasparov in 1997 Computers are competitive with top human players: –Backgammon: TD-Gammon system used reinforcement learning to learn a good evaluation functionTD-Gammon system –Bridge: top systems use Monte Carlo simulation and alpha-beta search Computers are not competitive: –Go: branching factor 361. Existing systems use Monte Carlo simulation and pattern databases

38. http://xkcd.com/1002/ See also: http://xkcd.com/1263/http://xkcd.com/1263/

39. Utility Theory

41. Maximum Expected Utility Principle of maximum expected utility: an agent should choose the action which maximizes its expected utility, given its knowledge General principle for decision making (definition of rationality) Where do utilities come from?

43. Why MEU?

48. Utility Scales Normalized Utilities: u + =1.0, u - =0.0 Micromorts: one-millionth chance of death, useful for paying to reduce product risks, etc

49. Human Utilities How much do people value their lives? –How much would you pay to avoid a risk, e.g. Russian roulette with a million-barreled revolver (1 micromort)? –Driving in a car for 230 miles incurs a risk of 1 micromort.

50. Measuring Utilities Worst possible catastrophe Best possible prize

56. Stochastic, sequential environments (Chapter 17) Image credit: P. Abbeel and D. Klein Markov Decision Processes

57. Components: –States s, beginning with initial state s 0 –Actions a Each state s has actions A(s) available from it –Transition model P(s’ | s, a) Markov assumption: the probability of going to s’ from s depends only on s and a and not on any other past actions or states –Reward function R(s) Policy  (s): the action that an agent takes in any given state –The “solution” to an MDP

60. Overview First, we will look at how to “solve” MDPs, (find the optimal policy when the transition model and the reward function are known) Second, we will consider reinforcement learning, where we don’t know the rules of the environment or the consequences of our actions

61. Game show A series of questions with increasing level of difficulty and increasing payoff Decision: at each step, take your earnings and quit, or go for the next question –If you answer wrong, you lose everything Q1Q2Q3Q4 Correct Incorrect: $0 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $100 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $1,100 Correct: $61,100 Incorrect: $0 Quit: $11,100 $100 question $1,000 question $10,000 question $50,000 question

62. Game show Consider $50,000 question –Probability of guessing correctly: 1/10 –Quit or go for the question? What is the expected payoff for continuing? 0.1 * 61,100 + 0.9 * 0 = 6,110 What is the optimal decision? Q1Q2Q3Q4 Correct Incorrect: $0 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $100 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $1,100 Correct: $61,100 Incorrect: $0 Quit: $11,100 $100 question $1,000 question $10,000 question $50,000 question 9/103/41/2 1/10

63. Game show What should we do in Q3? –Payoff for quitting: $1,100 –Payoff for continuing: 0.5 * $11,100 = $5,550 What about Q2? –$100 for quitting vs. $4,162 for continuing What about Q1? Q1Q2Q3Q4 Correct Incorrect: $0 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $100 Correct Incorrect: $0 Quit: $1,100 Correct: $61,100 Incorrect: $0 Quit: $11,100 $100 question $1,000 question $10,000 question $50,000 question 9/103/41/2 1/10 U = $11,100U = $5,550U = $4,162U = $3,746

64. Grid world R(s) = -0.04 for every non-terminal state Transition model: 0.80.1 Source: P. Abbeel and D. Klein

65. Goal: Policy Source: P. Abbeel and D. Klein

66. Grid world R(s) = -0.04 for every non-terminal state Transition model:

67. Grid world Optimal policy when R(s) = -0.04 for every non-terminal state

68. Grid world Optimal policies for other values of R(s):