1. 10/8/2015 1 2020 Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation Stephen R. Barnes Associate Director LSU Division of Economic Development

2. Summary Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 –2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3% –2008-2018 employment growth is 9.1% for Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 –LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 –Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000 10/8/20152

3. Methodology 10/8/20153 Baseline statistical model using the MicroMatrix software and historical data (846 regional industry forecasts) Review statistical industry forecasts o Economic causes of trends—developed alternate models for all 846 regional industry forecasts o Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments— help from Louisiana Health Works Commission, LCA, LMOGA, GBRIA/SLCUC/GNO Business Roundtable, ABC, Inc. o Incorporate economic development projects and major announcements Move from industries to occupation using staffing patterns and replacement rates Review occupational forecasts (3,710 regional occupation forecasts)

4. Baseline Statistical Models Baseline employment data affected by long period of unusual events –Historic declines due to 2005 hurricanes –Recession decreased employment by 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 Preliminary projections implied no employment growth from 2010 to 2020 10/8/20154

5. Louisiana Employment 10/8/20155

6. Employment Trends and the Recession 10/8/20156

7. New Orleans Population Growing 10/8/20157

8. Major Economic and Policy Factors Rebound from the recession Population growth Low price and abundance of natural gas Oil and gas activity increasing in the Gulf of Mexico Demographic influences and Health Reform impacting the demand for health care services 10/8/20158

9. LSU Forecasting Overview 10/8/20159

10. Revised Forecasts 10/8/201510

11. Region Summary 10/8/201511 RLMARegion Name 2010 Employment Preliminary 2020 Revised 2020 Revised Total Growth Revised Percent Growth 1New Orleans 514,666 494,336 580,578 65,91212.8% 2Baton Rouge 407,947 419,243 474,648 66,70116.4% 3Houma 96,570 100,786 115,109 18,53919.2% 4Lafayette 264,273 267,695 303,364 39,09114.8% 5Lake Charles 112,145 109,557 131,802 19,65717.5% 6Alexandria 107,446 108,138 120,173 12,72711.8% 7Shreveport 233,785 232,778 262,431 28,64612.3% 8Monroe 109,660 107,728 124,384 14,72413.4%

12. Top Industries in Total Growth NAICSIndustry Name 2010 Employment Preliminary 2020 Revised 2020 Revised Total Growth Revised Percent Growth 722000Food services and drinking places139,324140,655165,56026,23618.8% 621000Ambulatory health care services86,04894,376109,90223,85427.7% 541000Professional and technical services79,63092,536101,00521,37526.8% 622000Hospitals106,315107,213124,05517,74016.7% 561000Administrative and support services81,03083,60497,30916,27920.1% 611000Educational services171,521178,353187,48415,9639.3% 238000Specialty trade contractors60,56661,49672,60712,04119.9% 624000Social assistance39,74943,48448,7769,02722.7% 452000General merchandise stores51,69251,05660,0498,35716.2% 213000Support activities for mining39,54741,65447,2847,73719.6% 10/8/201512

13. Top Industries in Percent Growth (with 2010 employment greater than 500) NAICSIndustry Name 2010 Employment Preliminary 2020 Revised 2020 Revised Total Growth Revised Percent Growth 331000Primary metal manufacturing2,3501,8833,9931,64369.9% 483000Water transportation9,38710,42912,7143,32735.4% 512000 Motion picture and sound recording industries4,1954,9985,6651,47035.0% 493000Warehousing and storage6,9216,3869,0702,14931.1% 621000Ambulatory health care services86,04894,376109,90223,85427.7% 541000Professional and technical services79,63092,536101,00521,37526.8% 444000 Building material and garden supply stores19,40419,09024,2944,89025.2% 332000 Fabricated metal product manufacturing15,95014,27019,7793,82924.0% 324000 Petroleum and coal products manufacturing11,45611,19014,2032,74724.0% 486000Pipeline transportation2,6182,6553,23061223.4% 10/8/201513

14. Staffing Patterns 10/8/201514 Occupation Industry Hospitals Physicians Registered Nurses Clinical Laboratory Technicians Accountants

15. Staffing Pattern: Other heavy and civil engineering construction 10/8/201515

16. Growth by Occupation Group 10/8/201516

17. Summary Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 –2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3% –2008-2018 employment growth is 9.1% for Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 –LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 –Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000 10/8/201517