2. Waiting Line Models (1) Pertemuan 11 Matakuliah: K0442-Metode Kuantitatif Tahun: 2009

3. Material Outline Structure of a Waiting Line System Single-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service Times Multiple-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service Times

4. Queuing theory is the study of waiting lines. Four characteristics of a queuing system are: –the manner in which customers arrive –the time required for service –the priority determining the order of service –the number and configuration of servers in the system. Structure of a Waiting Line System

5. Queue Discipline –Most common queue discipline is first come, first served (FCFS). –An elevator is an example of last come, first served (LCFS) queue discipline. –Other disciplines assign priorities to the waiting units and then serve the unit with the highest priority first. Distribution of Arrivals –Generally, the arrival of customers into the system is a random event. –Frequently the arrival pattern is modeled as a Poisson process. Distribution of Service Times –Service time is also usually a random variable. –A distribution commonly used to describe service time is the exponential distribution.

6. Structure of a Waiting Line System Single Service Channel Multiple Service Channels S1S1S1S1 S1S1S1S1 S1S1S1S1 S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2 S2S2S2S2 S3S3S3S3 S3S3S3S3 Customer leaves Customer leaves Customer arrives Customer arrives Waiting line System

7. M/M/1 Queuing System Single channel Poisson arrival-rate distribution Exponential service-time distribution Unlimited maximum queue length Infinite calling population Examples: –Single-window theatre ticket sales booth –Single-scanner airport security station

8. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) M/M/1 Queuing System Joe Ferris is a stock trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for the firm of Smith, Jones, Johnson, and Thomas, Inc. Stock transactions arrive at a mean rate of 20 per hour. Each order received by Joe requires an average of two minutes to process. n M/M/1 Queuing System Orders arrive at a mean rate of 20 per hour or one order every 3 minutes. Therefore, in a 15 minute interval the average number of orders arriving will be = 15/3 = 5.

9. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Arrival Rate Distribution Question What is the probability that no orders are received within a 15-minute period? Answer P (x = 0) = (5 0 e -5 )/0! = e -5 =.0067

10. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Arrival Rate Distribution Question What is the probability that exactly 3 orders are received within a 15-minute period? Answer P (x = 3) = (5 3 e -5 )/3! = 125(.0067)/6 =.1396 Arrival Rate Distribution Question What is the probability that more than 6 orders arrive within a 15-minute period? Answer P (x > 6) = 1 - P (x = 0) - P (x = 1) - P (x = 2) - P (x = 3) - P (x = 4) - P (x = 5) - P (x = 6) = 1 -.762 =.238

11. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Service Rate Distribution Question What is the mean service rate per hour? Answer Since Joe Ferris can process an order in an average time of 2 minutes (= 2/60 hr.), then the mean service rate, µ, is µ = 1/(mean service time), or 60/2.  = 30/hr.

12. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Service Time Distribution Question What percentage of the orders will take less than one minute to process? Answer Since the units are expressed in hours, P (T < 1 minute) = P (T < 1/60 hour). Using the exponential distribution, P (T < t ) = 1 - e -µt. Hence, P (T < 1/60) = 1 - e -30(1/60) = 1 -.6065 =.3935 = 39.35%

13. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Service Time Distribution Question What percentage of the orders will be processed in exactly 3 minutes? Answer Since the exponential distribution is a continuous distribution, the probability a service time exactly equals any specific value is 0.

14. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Service Time Distribution Question What percentage of the orders will require more than 3 minutes to process? Answer The percentage of orders requiring more than 3 minutes to process is: P (T > 3/60) = e -30(3/60) = e -1.5 =.2231 = 2.31%

15. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Average Time in the System Question What is the average time an order must wait from the time Joe receives the order until it is finished being processed (i.e. its turnaround time)? Answer This is an M/M/1 queue with = 20 per hour and  = 30 per hour. The average time an order waits in the system is:W = 1/(µ - ) = 1/(30 - 20) = 1/10 hour or 6 minutes

16. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Average Length of Queue Question What is the average number of orders Joe has waiting to be processed? Answer Average number of orders waiting in the queue is: L q = 2 /[µ(µ - )] = (20) 2 /[(30)(30-20)] = 400/300 = 4/3

17. Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Utilization Factor Question What percentage of the time is Joe processing orders? Answer The percentage of time Joe is processing orders is equivalent to the utilization factor, / . Thus, the percentage of time he is processing orders is: /  = 20/30 = 2/3 or 66.67%

18. M/M/k Queuing System Multiple channels (with one central waiting line) Poisson arrival-rate distribution Exponential service-time distribution Unlimited maximum queue length Infinite calling population Examples: –Four-teller transaction counter in bank –Two-clerk returns counter in retail store

19. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) M/M/2 Queuing System Smith, Jones, Johnson, and Thomas, Inc. has begun a major advertising campaign which it believes will increase its business 50%. To handle the increased volume, the company has hired an additional floor trader, Fred Hanson, who works at the same speed as Joe Ferris. Note that the new arrival rate of orders,, is 50% higher than that of problem (A). Thus, = 1.5(20) = 30 per hour.

20. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) Sufficient Service Rate Question Why will Joe Ferris alone not be able to handle the increase in orders? Answer Since Joe Ferris processes orders at a mean rate of µ = 30 per hour, then = µ = 30 and the utilization factor is 1. This implies the queue of orders will grow infinitely large. Hence, Joe alone cannot handle this increase in demand.

21. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) Probability of n Units in System Question What is the probability that neither Joe nor Fred will be working on an order at any point in time? Answer Given that = 30, µ = 30, k = 2 and ( /µ) = 1, the probability that neither Joe nor Fred will be working is: = 1/[(1 + (1/1!)(30/30)1] + [(1/2!)(1)2][2(30)/(2(30)-30)] = 1/(1 + 1 + 1) = 1/3 =.333

22. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) Probability of n Units in System (continued) Answer Given that = 30, µ = 30, k = 2 and ( /µ) = 1, the probability that neither Joe nor Fred will be working is: = 1/[(1 + (1/1!)(30/30)1] + [(1/2!)(1)2][2(30)/(2(30)-30)] = 1/(1 + 1 + 1) = 1/3 =.333

23. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) Average Time in System Question What is the average turnaround time for an order with both Joe and Fred working?

24. Average Time in System (continued) Answer The average turnaround time is the average waiting time in the system, W. L = L q + ( /µ) = 1/3 + (30/30) = 4/3 W = L/  (4/3)/30 = 4/90 hr. = 2.67 min. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B)

25. Average Length of Queue Question What is the average number of orders waiting to be filled with both Joe and Fred working? Answer The average number of orders waiting to be filled is L q. This was calculated earlier as 1/3.

26. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) Creating Special Excel Function to Compute P 0 Select the Tools pull-down menu Select the Macro option Choose the Visual Basic Editor When the Visual Basic Editor appears Select the Insert pull-down menu Choose the Module option When the Module sheet appears Enter Function Po (k,lamda,mu) Enter Visual Basic program (on next slide) Select the File pull-down menu Choose the Close and Return to MS Excel option

27. Example: SJJT, Inc. (B) Visual Basic Module for P 0 Function Function Po(k, lamda, mu) Sum = 0 For n = 0 to k - 1 Sum = Sum + (lamda/mu) ^ n / Application.Fact(n) Next Po = 1/(Sum+(lamda/mu)^k/Application.Fact(k))* (k*mu/(k*mu-lamda))) End Function

28. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Economic Analysis of Queuing Systems The advertising campaign of Smith, Jones, Johnson and Thomas, Inc. (see problems (A) and (B)) was so successful that business actually doubled. The mean rate of stock orders arriving at the exchange is now 40 per hour and the company must decide how many floor traders to employ. Each floor trader hired can process an order in an average time of 2 minutes.

29. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Economic Analysis of Queuing Systems Based on a number of factors the brokerage firm has determined the average waiting cost per minute for an order to be $.50. Floor traders hired will earn $20 per hour in wages and benefits. Using this information compare the total hourly cost of hiring 2 traders with that of hiring 3 traders.

30. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines Total Hourly Cost = (Total salary cost per hour) + (Total hourly cost for orders in the system) = ($20 per trader per hour) x (Number of traders) + ($30 waiting cost per hour) x (Average number of orders in the system) = 20k + 30L. Thus, L must be determined for k = 2 traders and for k = 3 traders with = 40/hr. and  = 30/hr. (since the average service time is 2 minutes (1/30 hr.).

31. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Cost of Two Servers P 0 = 1 / [1+(1/1!)(40/30)]+[(1/2!)(40/30)2(60/(60-40))] = 1 / [1 + (4/3) + (8/3)] = 1/5

32. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Cost of Two Servers (continued) Thus, L = L q + ( /µ) = 16/15 + 4/3 = 2.40 Total Cost = (20)(2) + 30(2.40) = $112.00 per hour

33. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Cost of Three Servers P 0 = 1/[[1+(1/1!)(40/30)+(1/2!)(40/30)2]+ [(1/3!)(40/30)3(90/(90-40))] ] = 1 / [1 + 4/3 + 8/9 + 32/45] = 15/59

34. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) Cost of Three Servers (continued) Thus, L =.1446 + 40/30 = 1.4780 Total Cost = (20)(3) + 30(1.4780) = $104.35 per hour

35. Example: SJJT, Inc. (C) System Cost Comparison WageWaiting Total Cost/HrCost/HrCost/Hr 2 Traders $40.00 $82.00 $112.00 3 Traders 60.00 44.35 104.35 Thus, the cost of having 3 traders is less than that of 2 traders.

36. M/D/1 Queuing System Single channel Poisson arrival-rate distribution Constant service time Unlimited maximum queue length Infinite calling population Examples: –Single-booth automatic car wash –Coffee vending machine

37. Example: Ride ‘Em Cowboy! M/D/1 Queuing System The mechanical pony ride machine at the entrance to avery popular J-Mart store provides 2 minutes of riding for $.50. Children wanting to ride the pony arrive (accompanied of course) according to a Poisson distribution with a mean rate of 15 per hour. What fraction of the time is the pony idle? = 15 per hour  = 60/2 = 30 per hour Utilization = /  = 15/30 =.5 Idle fraction = 1 – Utilization = 1 -.5 =.5

38. What is the average number of children waiting to ride the pony? What is the average time a child waits for a ride? Example: Ride ‘Em Cowboy! (or 1 minute)

39. M/G/k Queuing System Multiple channels Poisson arrival-rate distribution Arbitrary service times No waiting line Infinite calling population Example: –Telephone system with k lines. (When all k lines are being used, additional callers get a busy signal.)

40. Example: Allen-Booth M/G/k Queuing System Allen-Booth (A-B) is an OTC market maker. A broker wishing to trade a particular stock for a client will call on a firm like Allen- Booth to execute the order. If the market maker's phone line is busy, a broker will immediately try calling another market maker to transact the order. A-B estimates that on the average, a broker will try to call to execute a stock transaction every two minutes. The time required to complete the transaction averages 75 seconds. A-B has four traders staffing its phones. Assume calls arrive according to a Poisson distribution.

41. Example: Allen-Booth This problem can be modeled as an M/G/k system with block customers cleared with: 1/ = 2 minutes = 2/60 hour = 60/2 = 30 per hour 1/µ = 75 sec. = 75/60 min. = 75/3600 hr. µ = 3600/75 = 48 per hour

42. Example: Allen-Booth % of A-B’s Customers Lost Due to Busy Line First, we must solve for P 0 where k = 4 1 P 0 = 1 + (30/48) + (30/48)2/2! + (30/48)3/3! + (30/48)4/4! P 0 =.536 continued

43. % of A-B’s Customers Lost Due to Busy Line Now, Thus, with four traders 0.3% of the potential customers are lost. Example: Allen-Booth