1. slide 1 Decision Support, NACP and “Usable” Carbon Science Lisa Dilling Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO USA

2. slide 2Motivation NACP explicitly seeks scientific understanding to “…meet societal concerns and to provide tools to policy makers” (Wofsy and Harriss, 2002); and to provide “decision support” (Denning et al. 2005) NACP explicitly seeks scientific understanding to “…meet societal concerns and to provide tools to policy makers” (Wofsy and Harriss, 2002); and to provide “decision support” (Denning et al. 2005) Providing useful knowledge is not a given Providing useful knowledge is not a given NACP offers a fertile test-bed and opportunity NACP offers a fertile test-bed and opportunity To be successful at providing useful information to decision-makers requires research and a deliberate approach To be successful at providing useful information to decision-makers requires research and a deliberate approach

3. slide 3 An Opportunity? Inadvertent carbon management Existing for millennia Will continue to dominate C management Depends on land type, land use, actors, markets, policy Deliberate carbon management Increasing interest in past 10 yrs Small scale Pilot projects Voluntary efforts Carbon Governance? Both deliberate and inadvertent Rules TBD Effective across scales Role of public policy Role of markets FUTURE ??

4. slide 4 Potential Carbon Decision Makers A wide array of potential users at a variety of scales: Land users (agriculture, forestry, urban development) Land users (agriculture, forestry, urban development) Energy providers (utilities, fuel producers) Energy providers (utilities, fuel producers) Policy makers (local, state, federal) Policy makers (local, state, federal) Specialized sectors (carbon traders, NGOs) Specialized sectors (carbon traders, NGOs)

5. slide 5 So what do we know about providing science that is useful for decision making?

6. Case example: ENSO climate forecasting

7. slide 7 What have we learned so far? Miles et al. 2006 (PNAS): “every empirical study conducted to date has shown that climate forecasts are not used to their full potential” Miles et al. 2006 (PNAS): “every empirical study conducted to date has shown that climate forecasts are not used to their full potential”

8. slide 8 True in both wealthy and poor nations… Developing world cases: Developing world cases: Glantz, 1977, Sahel, Western Africa Blench 1999, Southern Africa Eakin 2000, Mexico Agrawala et al. 2001 Agrawala and Broad 2002, Peru Patt and Gwata 2002, Zimbabwe Tarhule and Lamb 2003, Sahel Ingham et al. 2002, Burkina Faso

9. slide 9 Developed world Sonka et al. 1992 U.S. agribusiness Sonka et al. 1992 U.S. agribusiness Pulwarty and Redmond 1997, U.S. Pacific Northwest Pulwarty and Redmond 1997, U.S. Pacific Northwest Changnon 2003 U.S. sectors Changnon 2003 U.S. sectors Rayner et al. 2005 U.S. water managers Rayner et al. 2005 U.S. water managers

10. slide 10 And can be used, with unintended consequences Glantz 1982, Yakima Valley Glantz 1982, Yakima Valley Broad et al. 2002, Peru Broad et al. 2002, Peru Lemos 2003 Lemos 2003 Photo by Glantz Ceara, Brazil

11. slide 11 Finally, of course some successes Jagtap et al. 2002, Florida, U.S. Jagtap et al. 2002, Florida, U.S. Power et al. 2005, Western Australia Power et al. 2005, Western Australia Lemos and Morehouse 2005, Southwest U.S. Lemos and Morehouse 2005, Southwest U.S. Cash et al. 2006, Pacific Islands Cash et al. 2006, Pacific Islands Miles et al. 2006, Pacific NW, U.S. Miles et al. 2006, Pacific NW, U.S. PEAC

12. slide 12 What does it take for science to be used in decision making? Relevant to a decision context/Makes a difference to the outcome Relevant to a decision context/Makes a difference to the outcome There are viable options for the particular decision that are sensitive to the information There are viable options for the particular decision that are sensitive to the information Compatible with existing values, norms and practices Compatible with existing values, norms and practices Accessible Accessible Credible Credible Trustworthy Trustworthy Reliable/accurate/appropriate scale and timing Reliable/accurate/appropriate scale and timing

13. slide 13 So what does this imply for the process used to create science useful for decision making?

14. slide 14 Avoid the “loading dock” approach!! Cash et al. 2006

15. slide 15 Characterizing the need for information: What can we learn about decision makers’ needs, concerns and interests– what drives their decision-making? What can we learn about decision makers’ needs, concerns and interests– what drives their decision-making? What sources of information do they typically rely on? Why do they trust them? What sources of information do they typically rely on? Why do they trust them? How do their activities currently affect the carbon balance and why? How do their activities currently affect the carbon balance and why? How does the scale of information needed match up to the scale of information available? How does the scale of information needed match up to the scale of information available?

16. Usable science Inter- disciplinarity Interactions with stakeholders Iterativity Lemos and Morehouse 2005

17. slide 17 Suggestions for making carbon (and NACP) science more usable (from SOCCR/SAP 2.2): Identify categories of decision makers (DMs) for whom carbon information is a relevant issue (problem orientation) Identify categories of decision makers (DMs) for whom carbon information is a relevant issue (problem orientation) Work directly with DMs to understand context of their decisions and evaluate carbon impacts of actions in these contexts (two way, ongoing) Work directly with DMs to understand context of their decisions and evaluate carbon impacts of actions in these contexts (two way, ongoing) Encourage experimentation with new approaches to make NACP science more credible and relevant to carbon managers Encourage experimentation with new approaches to make NACP science more credible and relevant to carbon managers Involve multiple disciplines Involve multiple disciplines Create appropriate feedbacks and accountability so that the NACP program and priorities are responsive to needs Create appropriate feedbacks and accountability so that the NACP program and priorities are responsive to needs New mechanisms and institutional arrangements may be necessary to facilitate meeting user needs New mechanisms and institutional arrangements may be necessary to facilitate meeting user needs Co-evolve this component as part of the NACP, not an afterthought Co-evolve this component as part of the NACP, not an afterthought

18. slide 18 The decision context for carbon management No decision maker has solely a “climate protection” mandate No decision maker has solely a “climate protection” mandate No-one is managing for carbon exclusively: No-one is managing for carbon exclusively: –Multiple interests and incentives –Multiple goals –Multiple scales Private sector decisions dominated by “responses to economic opportunities as mediated by institutional factors” (Lambin et al. 2001) Private sector decisions dominated by “responses to economic opportunities as mediated by institutional factors” (Lambin et al. 2001)

19. slide 19 Decision support at this meeting: Breakout session: Carbon management and decision support (Potter and Wynne) Breakout session: Carbon management and decision support (Potter and Wynne) Poster session Poster session –Birdsey et al. –Chen et al. –Liu et al. –Conant et al. –Doraiswamy et al. –Gower and Ahl –King and Dilling –Potter et al. –Walker et al. –Wynne et al.

20. slide 20 Next steps to consider? Formation of an NACP Decision support working group? Formation of an NACP Decision support working group? –Recommended in NACP Science Implementation Strategy (2005) –Critical mass of interest in topic (posters, discussion interest) –Need to provide focal point, connect existing activities and foster new ones –Experience suggests we cannot wait until the end of NACP to start thinking about decision support…

21. slide 21 Resources and References NASA Applied Sciences program (Ed Sheffner) NASA Applied Sciences program (Ed Sheffner) “Usable Carbon Science” workshop report online at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/ rsd/workshop_report.pdf “Usable Carbon Science” workshop report online at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/ rsd/workshop_report.pdf http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/ rsd/workshop_report.pdf http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/ rsd/workshop_report.pdf NACP Science Implementation Strategy (Question 4, decision support) online at: NACP Science Implementation Strategy (Question 4, decision support) online at: http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/PDF/NACP-SIS-final-july05.pdf SOCCR/SAP 2.2 Chapter 5 online at: SOCCR/SAP 2.2 Chapter 5 online at: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/public-review- draft/SOCCR_Chapter05.pdf http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/public-review- draft/SOCCR_Chapter05.pdf Dilling 2007 Environmental Science and Policy:1-4; 48-61 Dilling 2007 Environmental Science and Policy:1-4; 48-61 Dilling 2007 Global Environmental Politics: in press Dilling 2007 Global Environmental Politics: in press

22. slide 22 Thank you! For more information: For more information: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/ ldilling@cires.colorado.edu