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GENSPACE Air Traffic Management

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Presentation on theme: "GENSPACE Air Traffic Management"— Presentation transcript:

1 GENSPACE Air Traffic Management
Philippe DEBELS CEATS Research Development and Simulation centre, Budapest European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2 ATM : Overview Today Tomorrow The Air Transport “System”
Analysis - Performance Tomorrow Forecast Strategy Documents

3 ATM Today Air Transport System – Actors
Main actors Airspace users – The Airlines Airports Air Navigation Service Providers

4 ATM Today Air Transport – Airlines Europe
5.000 commercial aircraft Average flight 750 km Average flight duration 1h20 flights per day flights per year flight hours per year Load factor (fill rate) 65 % 1 B pax per year (100 pax/flight) employees Total revenue 100 B€/year

5 ATM Today Air Transport – Airports Europe
2.200 airports in 36 countries 766 recognised by IATA movements/year employees Revenue Aeronautical B€/year Non-aeronautical 11 B€/year

6 ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe
ICAO: The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory.

7 ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe
EUROCONTROL: 37 Member States 37 Service Providers (ANSP) 68 Area Control Centres (ACC) 600 Sectors at full capacity Shanwick OAC 417 Towers 199 Approach units Air Traffic Controllers Support staff Employees Total revenue 7.5 B€/year

8 ATM Today: the System Summary
REMEMBER Main figures – Eurocontrol 37 Countries flight per day Average 750 km or 1h30 Air Traffic Controllers (total staff) 600 sectors Air Transport European Region : 120 billion €/year ATM cost Europe : 7.5 billion €/year

9 ATM Today The System – Analysis
Fragmentation Heterogeneity Complexity

10 ATM Today The System – Fragmentation Actors
Fragmentation – All actors concerned Airspace: size, military TSA, … ANSPs: civil/military; size; units (ACCs, APPs). ATM systems, interfaces, CNS infrastructure. Process: procurement, development, … Cost estimate fragmentation: 1 B €/year

11 ATM Today The System - Heterogeneity
Productivity: Flight h / ATCO h: to 1.53, <> 0.65 Institutional arrangement: Gvt department, State enterprise, Gvt owned company, Limited liability company Safety: Heterogeneous implementation of regulations Costs: Cost controlled flight h: 185 to 650€/h, <> 453€/h Cost of ATCO: 3 to 135€/h, <> 69 €/h Bring ‘last in class’ to average 0.6 B €/year

12 ATM Today The System - Complexity
Non-linear relation between traffic and delays ! Complexity not uniform

13 ATM Today Performance Review
Capacity and Delays Cost-effectiveness Flight efficiency Safety

14 ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays
3-year capacity-traffic lag being squeezed 80% capacity growth 1 minute average delay/flight by 2006 De-coupling delays and traffic growth Investments too much “reactive” ?

15 ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays
En-route ATFM delays slightly increasing 1.4 min/flight in high traffic growth, Nearly at economic optimum delay target 1 min/flight Airport ATFM delays warrant special attention.

16 ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays
Cost of delays Delay ? Definition ? Cost for whom ? Tactical; Reactionary; Strategic delays; Passengers ? Average 72 €/min Crew 10 € Maintenance 1 € Pax compensation 24 € Pax opportunity cost 36 € 289 €/min <1 €/min 1 1 B €/year

17 ATM Today: Performance Cost-effectiveness
Until now, cost ~ traffic, unit cost and effectiveness stable. But … Available projections indicate that unit costs will decrease more or less in line with the cost-effectiveness target in the coming years.

18 ATM Today: Performance Flight efficiency
Flight not direct. Cause: airspace structure, en-route congestion, route charge differentials . Marginal cost of schedule time: € 19/min for an ATR42 €131/min for a B average €6.4/NM €3.5/km (2004) Military zone Margin for improvement 1.5 B €/year

19 ATM Today: Performance Safety
Data ? “Some progress … … incident reporting and transparency. Legal and cultural impediments ….. …. still exist 24 regulatory authorities & 19 ANSPs …. not meet acceptable maturity level” ATM contribution: 2..6 % 15 States: more incidents reported; High severity incidents constant

20 ATM Today: Performance Summary
REMEMBER ATM is performing well: Average delays at near economic optimum : 1.4 min/flight Unit costs stable : 0.80 € /km Delay costs for airlines : 70 € /minute But, still high margins for improvements: Safety level (implementation of regulations; reporting) Fragmentation : 1 B€/year Delays (ATFM) : 1 B€ / year Productivity : 0.6 B€ / year Flight Efficiency : 1.5 B€ / year

21 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth
Growth of controlled air traffic: 4 % in 2006 Expected to continue at similar rates. Traffic growth varied greatly across control centres in 2006 (0% to +20%).

22 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth
Some countries spectacular increases of 20% in 2006 Heterogeneity

23 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth
A: strong economies and limited oil price growth B: ‘business as usual’ C: increased environmental costs, larger aircraft, more limited trade, traffic liberalization D: world of tensions between regions and very high oil price

24 7.0 Mio Flights 8.0 Mio Flights 1997 2000 2010 2020 11.9 Mio Flights
Flights or more 2010 2020 11.9 Mio Flights 15.8 Mio Flights DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97

25 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety
What people perceive Accidents = Traffic x Accident Rate Public perceives Absolute Number of Accident, Not the Accident Rate !  Needs to be lowered drastically !

26 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety
At constant Safety Level Relation between accidents rate and traffic is QUADRATIC: absolute accident = constant traffic x 2  safety level x 4 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Traffic (million flights) Risk trend Risk target

27 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety
Relation between accidents rate and traffic is quadratic: If absolute accident = constant If Traffic x 2 Then  safety level x 4 3 flights 3 potential conflicts 3 x 2 flights 3 x 22 = 12 potential conflicts 3 flights 3 potential conflicts

28 ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents
European Commission, Sep.2001 White Paper « European Transport Policy for 2010 » European Commissioner for Research, Jan.2001 Group of Aeronautics Personalities A vision for 2020 Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) Strategic Research Agenda: SRA-1 and SRA-2 Single European Sky and SESAR

29 ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents
Challenges for 2020 Traffic:  2020: 3 x more traffic Safety: Accident rate -80%; Safety: x 10 Environment: Emissions, Noise: - 50% … -80% Quality of service Time in airport maximum 15 min (short) and 30 min (long) 99% flight within 15 min of schedule, all weather conditions Security: Zero successful hijack ONE European airspace – “SES” European rules ! New Air Traffic Control Paradigm ?

30 REMEMBER ATM Tomorrow Summary Traffic increase 4 .. 5% / year
Traffic forecast for x Safety relation to traffic QUADRATIC Safety target 10 x Quality target Time in airport min Punctuality 99% flight within 15 min all weather conditions R&D budget M€/year (3%)

31 ATM : Preparing for the future
Solutions Role of the CRDS

32 Closing the capacity gap
EUROCONTROL Potential solutions Possible solutions : Route optimisation (cf. Flight efficiency) Additional sectors (physical limit) Support tools for controllers New technologies Traffic R&D SESAR R&D R&D CASCADE ModeS FASTI LINK2000 ACAS 8.33 Predicted capacity DMEAN 1 minute delay Safety - Security Airports Closing the capacity gap

33 A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport
Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROL Needs: Turn off fragmented approach Accelerate ATM evolution in response to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans from research to operations Synchronise airborne and ground deployments SESAR Support Single European Sky technical/operational implementation 3 Phases: Definition of European ATM Master Plan ( early 2008) Development (2008  2013) Deployment (2014  2020)

34 Closing the capacity gap
EUROCONTROL Potential solutions DMEAN 8.33 ModeS LINK2000 ACAS CASCADE FASTI Phase 2 SESAR Predicted capacity Traffic Closing the capacity gap Safety - Security Airports 1 minute delay Programme phases for capacity R&D Phase 1 Phase 3 Possible solutions : Route network optimisation Additional sectors Support tools for controllers New technologies But … Maximum benefit in large airspace Need to be further optimised Need to be tested and validated Task of CRDS Develop and improve the solutions (R&D) Test and validate the solutions (simulations) Disseminate the knowledge (training) FAB CEATS 3 Pillars for CRDS

35 CRDS 1. R&D Co-ordination Focal point ATM R&D Central Europe
CRDS has limited resources for R&D ! Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …) Act as a catalyst and concentrate on: Issues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider application Domains not yet covered by others Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, Žilina, Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Military Academies ! Data link Civil/Military FUA Syst.Appl.Dir.Routing Performance Metrics

36 2. Validation Simulations
CRDS 2. Validation Simulations Validation through simulations Improve and Validate operational and technical concepts Improve : Translate concept in applicable working methods Provide recommendations Validate: Provide information of performance to decision makers Information on Operability, Safety, Capacity, Environment, Economy According to common standards E-OCVM for validation methodology ESARRs (2 and 4) : for Risk assessment and Risk mitigation ISO Certification process initiated E-OCVM: European Operational Concept Validation Model ESARR: Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement

37 2. Validation Simulations
CRDS 2. Validation Simulations Validation through simulations Model-Based Simulations (MBS): Use a mathematical simulator + : faster, large airspace, longer periods - : human is simulated  Capacity, Environment & Economy Real-Time Simulations (RTS): Simulate a “real” environment + : Human participation (controller & pilot) - : Costly and “labour intensive”  Operability & Safety 2001 – : 18 RTS and 12 MBS : 4 RTS and 4 MBS Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator  Capacity: typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity

38 CRDS 3. Support to Training Support to Training
The CRDS will add an additional element to the regional simulation training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system features. Support “Training of the Trainers” in the context of CEATS In co-operation* with the other ANSP training centres and the EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg). In co-operation with universities in the region  Visitors’ Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, … * Co-operation to avoid overlap in existing and future work programmes

39 CRDS Staff and Resources
CRDS Team 13 staff 10 contractors Experienced ATCOs Simulator Facilities Real-Time: 26 Controllers Working Positions 20 Pilot Working Positions ASMT Model-Based (Mathematical models) RAMS Plus TAAM (Total Airspace & Airport Modeller) LUCIAD

40 EUROCONTROL CRDS Simulator environment

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