1. Employment and skills: research evidence for policy making Will Bartlett London School of Economics

2. Outline Impact of economic crisis on labour market New methods to measure skill mismatch Policy process Evidence-based policy making (EBPM) Conclusions Forthcoming book (LSEE research network) 7/11/121Will Bartlett, LSEE

3. Developments in the enlargement countries Enlargement countries severely affected by economic crisis Collapse of external financial inflows Rising unemployment Need for new growth model based on improved competitiveness and labour skills Need, therefore, for better and more effective policy making 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE2

4. Unemployment rate (LFS, 2009-11) 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE3

5. Increase in unemployment rate, 2009- 11 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE4

6. Unemployment rate, Serbia, 2001-11 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE5

7. New methods to measure skill mismatch Will Bartlett, Jens Johansen, Debora Gatelli, part of ETF Match project Various indicators of skill mismatch: – Coefficient of variation – Variance of unemployment rate – Proportional measure of mismatch – Occupational measure - kurtosis – Beveridge curve analysis – Wage differentials across education levels 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE6

8. Skill mismatch: coefficient of variation 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE7

9. Skill mismatch by education level: Croatia (2005-10) (proportions) 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE8

10. Skill mismatch by education level: Montenegro (2007-10)(proportions) 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE9

11. Skill mismatch by education level: Serbia(2007-10)(proportions) 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE10

12. Lifelong Learning (% adult population) 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE11

13. Policy conclusions 1)reform the secondary and vocational education systems 2)improve the labour market matching for women workers through provision of publicly provided nursery and kindergarten education for young children 3)give special encouragement to employers to take on younger skilled workers through job subsidies and internships 4)encourage transfer of skills from foreign owned companies to small domestic firms 5)Encourage employers to provide in-house training (LLL) 6)provide of improved skill forecasts to professionals in career and education guidance for adults as well as school leavers 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE12

14. Evidence Based Policy Making Are studies such as this useful to policy makers? Do policy makers make use of research evidence? What are the drivers of policy making? Are single studies reliable? How can research studies be adapted to the needs of policy makers? 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE13

15. Policy process in EU enlargement countries Policy process may differ from developed countries – Close links between politicians and business elite state capture – Lack of permanent civil service to transmit policy lessons – Poor functioning of social councils – Little engagement of NGOs – Advocacy coalitions 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE14

16. Policy transfer Governments often draw lessons from other countries What are the causes of policy failure? – Inappropriate conditionality – Inappropriate emulation – misaligned objectives between different actors Example: lifelong learning policies and EQL adoption (Alexander Kleibrink study) 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE15

17. Evidence-based Policy Making (EBPM) Modern use of term originates in evidence- based medicine – extended to health policy UK Labour government 1997 announced modernisation of government based on EBPM Focus on what works irrespective of ideology 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE16

18. Systematic reviews Systematic review as a method for EBPM Policy makers lack time to assess the evidence Individual studies insufficient to make informed policy decisions Synthesis of several studies is needed Use well defined transparent procedures to minimise bias 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE17

19. Learning about systematic review EPPI Centre - An Institute of Education centre focusing on systematic reviews in education, health and social policy. EPPI Centre Campbell Collaboration - Independent organisation producing systematic reviews on what works for education, health and social policy to build healthy and stable societies. Campbell Collaboration Cochrane Collaboration - Independent organisations producing systematic reviews for health interventions. Cochrane Collaboration Collaboration for Environmental Evidence - Independent organisation producing systematic reviews for environmental management. Collaboration for Environmental Evidence International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE18

20. Policy evaluation and pilot projects Evaluation of policies after they have been implemented Pilot programmes to test effectiveness These several problems: – Too long time for effects to be revealed; policy may be changed in meantime – Simultaneous effects of several pilots in action areas may confound results – Hawthorn effects of pioneering spirit of pilots 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE19

21. Policy evaluation - alternatives Long-term evaluation of existing programmes – Best value regime for local government in UK Difference-in-difference method – Identify treatment group versus non-treatment group Calculate differential response of different groups to policy treatment (policy intervention) – Early tracking (Hanushek & Woessman, 2006) – Selective schooling (Bonhomme & Sauder, 2011) – Beautiful Serbia ALMP policy (Bonin & Rinne, 2006) 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE20

22. Conclusions Economic crisis emphasises need for EBPM for skills policy Evidence-based policy widely promoted in developed countries – Systematic reviews – Evaluation studies – But subject to critique Policy process in transition countries creates obstacles to use of EBPM Way forward: – Encourage use of systematic review – Difference in difference analyses of specific policies – But be aware of advocacy coalitions and state capture issues 26/02/2014Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE21

23. LSEE Research Network Book: Part I Chapter 2: Skill mismatch in enlargement and neighbourhood countries – Will Bartlett, Jens Johansen and Debora Gatelli Chapter 3: Skill surveys in Serbia: an overview and a case study - Mihail Arandarenko and Galjina Ognjanov Chapter 4: Skill needs on the labour market in Macedonia – Jovan Pejkovski Chapter 5: Educational origins and occupational destinations? Dissecting the education-job mismatch in school to work transitions in Croatia - Teo Matković 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE22

24. LSEE Research Network Book: Part II Chapter 6: Lifelong learning policies in Southeastern Europe: from emulation of EU policies to tailor-made reforms? - Alexander Kleibrink Chapter 7: Is government effective in promoting human capital? The case of Macedonia - Maja Nestorovska and Nikica Mojsoska- Blazevski Chapter 8: Skills matching in Croatian SME sector and competence- based education and training: progress and prospects - Nevenka Čučković and Will Bartlett Chapter 9: Reversing the Bosnian brain drain: opportunities and challenges – Sasha Barnes and Nermin Oruc 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE23

25. Thank you for your attention!!! 7/11/12Will Bartlett, LSEE24