1. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 1 HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth

2. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 2 Overview of Presentation Introduction: HALO and GEMS GEMS Requirements Existing Models of Fire Emissions Available Fire Earth Observations Strategy Proposal Conclusions

3. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 3 HALO Overview

4. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 4 HALO – GMES Specific Support Action (SSA) Harmonised coordination of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone (1/2/2004 – 1/1/2007) geoland (1/1/2004 - 1/2/2007) Global and regional observatories & core services M ERSEA (1/4/2004 – 1/4/2008) Global to coastal scale models, EO and in-situ data assimilation and modelling GEMS (1/3/2005 - 1/3/2009) Global greenhouse and reactive gases, global aerosol and regional air pollution, EO-data assimilation and modelling HALO aims at formulating agreed recommendations to GAC and IPs Scientific thematic analysis of links: Direct product exchange Unaccomplished data demands Common data Coordinated solutions to infra-structure in operational mode Candidate solutions by Alcatel and Astrium

5. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 5 HALO-Partners GMES Integrated Projects ECMWF (lead + GEMS + Meteorology ) Infoterra (geoland) IFREMER (MERSEA) Industrial partners Alcatel (Ocean – Atmosphere) Astrium (Land – Atmosphere)

6. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 6 Overall System: More Details Geoland GEMS MERSEA RT link Off -line link Model Assim. Retrieval Data Satellite Agencies CLS NER SC m-f CMS MFS TOPAZ Mer cator CSP OFM ECMWF NWP UK-metoffice FOAM ONC OLF GEMS In-situ NWP Cor iolis

7. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 7 GEMS Overview

8. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 8 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) ProjectsLeadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) AerosolO.Boucher (UK) Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) ValidationH.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

9. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 9 Objectives of GEMS Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009 Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO 2, and progressively adding CH 4, N 2 O, plus SF 6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), REACTIVE GASES (initially including O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007 Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO 2 and other trace constituents

10. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 10 Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects Validation greenhouse gases reactive gases regional air quality aerosols

11. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 11 Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site Year 1 May 2005+12 mo Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. Acquire data; build web-site Year 2 May 2006+12 mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners Provide feedback to data providers Year 2-2.5 May 2007 + 6 mo Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+ 12 mo Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Build operational system, & interfaces to partners Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo Final pre-operational trials Documentation & Scientific papers

12. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 12 GEMS Requirements on Wildfires

13. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 13 Fire Emissions … … may dominate regional air quality in severe air pollution events … may elevate background after long range transport (Stohl et al. 2001) … significantly contributes to emission budgets of several gases ( Kyoto, CLRTAP, …) … may influence weather by heat production and absorbing smoke. … provide essential a priori information for remote sensing … are variable on all time scales from hours to decades near London-Luton, 2005-12-11 NOAA, 2005-12-11

14. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 14 Interannual Variability

15. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 15 CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e Guiana 10 km CO – CO 2 300 ppb Short-term Variability: CO, CO2 (courtesy M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

16. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 16 CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e Guiana 10 km CO – CO 2 300 ppb Short-term Variability: O3 (Andreae et al. 2001)

17. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 17 GEMS Required Fire Products Products amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases location, time injection height profile Availability global near-real time and retrospectively time resolution of several hours to one day

18. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 18 Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements Year 2 May 2006+12 mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+ 12 mo Produce unified reanalyses for trace gases and aerosol high-resolution (temporal & spatial) global fire products for 2000–2007 Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo Final pre-operational trials high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT

19. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 19 Existing Models of Fire Emission

20. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 20 Existing Emission Models

21. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 21 CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima Fires Simulation using CATT-BRAMS (courtesy INPE/CPTEC, M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

22. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 22 CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima Fires Simulation using CATT-BRAMS Eulerian Transport Model 1000 m --------------------- 11700 m (produced by INPE/CPTEC, courtesy of M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

23. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 23 Some Conclusions on Existing Fire Emission Models No global operational system exists. (Some) severe events of pollution with aerosol and CO can be monitored and forecast with observations of fires only. It is possible. Fire EO input is essential. High temporal frequency of fire observations is important.

24. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 24 Available Observations

25. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 25 emission X land cover type available fuel load hot spots burnt area fire radiative power emission factor X burnt mass combustion efficiency fire radiative energy leaf area index / NDVI burning area fire temperature burn scars injection height profile satellite observations fire EO Products from Fire EO fire products

26. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 26 GLOBCARBON Global Burnt Area Estimate (courtesy of Olivier Arino)

27. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 27 Some Conclusions on EO Fire Products No current product satisfies all GEMS requirements. Many existing products are inconsistent. (Boschetti et al. 2004) very active area of research: Several new operational products are anticipated. Burnt Area from MODIS (D. Roy) Fire Radiative Power from SEVIRI (M. Wooster) WF_ABBA from global GEO system (E. Prins) … Collaboration with geoland community is needed.

28. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 28 Strategy Proposal

29. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 29 GEMS Baseline Approach (AER) GWEM for amount, MPI-MET [Hoelzemann et al. 2004] BUOYANT for injection height, FMI [Nikmo et al. 1999]

30. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 30 Proposed Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS Year 2 May 2006+12 mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude climatology: RETRO, AEROCOMM-B & MOPITT2003 Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+ 12 mo Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol high-resolution (t&s) global fire products for 2000–2007 burnt area, hot spots from MODIS, GLOBCARBON… Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo Final pre-operational trials high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT hot spots and/or FRP from MODIS, … Year 5 - 2009 - operational phase high-resolution global (t&s) fire products in NRT hot spots and/or FRP from MODIS, … WF_ABBA and/or FRP from GEO satellites Partial Funding No Funding

31. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 31 geoland, … t GEMS satellite fire product satellite radiance land cover climatology fire climatology land cover product fire product Global Fire Assimilation System reactive gas emissions greenhouse gases reactive gases aerosols regional air quality greenhouse gas emissions aerosol emissions regional emissions Proposed Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS)

32. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 32 emission X land cover type available fuel load hot spots burnt area fire radiative power emission factor X burnt mass combustion efficiency fire radiative energy leaf area index / NDVI atmospheric concentration X burning area fire temperature burn scars injection height profile satellite observations fire EO Proposed GFAS, cont. GEMS GFAS

33. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 33 Conclusions

34. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 34 Conclusions The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross- cutting issues in GEMS. The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag. No suitable wildfire emission product is available. Various fire EO products complement each other. Several promising developments are visible. We propose a phased development strategy for wildfire emission modelling for GEMS: Global Fire Assimilation System serving the GEMS subprojects, ultimately in near-real time. (Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected.) We need feedback from and collaboration with the fire EO and land monitoring communities. We need additional funding.

35. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 35 More Info www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO j.kaiser@ecmwf.int

36. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 36 Fire Observation Types

37. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 37 Diurnal Variability (Justice et al. 2002)

38. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 38 Overall System Layout

39. HALO and Wildfires in GEMSKaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14Slide 39 HALO-Objectives Optimising the efficiency of interaction the Atmosphere, Ocean and Land segments by formulating agreed recommendations to A - L - O IPs and GMES steering groups in areas of Scientific thematic analysis and coordination Coordinated solutions to shared problems Recommendations to the transition to operational status