1. Fuel Poverty Evidence Review: Measuring, Explaining & Identifying Fuel Poverty in Scotland Liz Hawkins & Jamie Robertson Scottish House Condition Survey Team Communities Analytical Services Division

2. Purpose of today Background Definitional Issues Summary of findings Next Steps

3. Why do an evidence review Large independent review of fuel poverty in England asked to review from first principles the fuel poverty definition and target (Hills Review) Fuel Poverty Forum tasked to undertake a smaller scale review in Scotland Evidence review aims to contribute to this process in Scotland

4. Evidence Review – Research aims To review the current definition of fuel poverty and consider alternative approaches (Hills Review) To draw on the wider evidence base to analyse the impacts of fuel poverty & compare this to the Scottish data To identify who the fuel poor are in order to inform effective intervention targeting

5. Fuel Poverty – Its definition & extent In 2010 28% of households were fuel poor (658,000) Statutory duty to eradicate fuel poverty by 2016 (“where reasonably practicable”) Fuel poverty is rising (projected 35% in SHCS 2011) “A household is in fuel poverty if it would be required to spend more than 10% of its income on all household fuel usage”

6. A picture of fuel poverty in Scotland

7. Measuring Fuel Poverty (JR) Energy Costs: SHCS & BREDEM 2 temperature schemes (Regular/Vulnerable) 2 zones (Primary living zone/Secondary) Vulnerable Groups (Pensioners/LTSD) 7 climate zones (degree day regions) Income: SHCS household income based on wages, benefits and council tax for the highest income householder and their partner only

9. Evidence Findings 1 – Number and Type of Fuel poor depends on definition Who the fuel poor are depends on how we define fuel poverty Current definition favours older people Changes to the definition would (e.g.) –Increase/decrease importance of fuel costs –Increase/decrease importance of housing costs –Increase/decrease importance of energy efficiency

10. Evidence Findings 2 – Evidence confuses fuel poverty and heat poverty and actual behaviour? Tends to be an assumption that fuel poverty=cold home Only half of a fuel bill relates to space heating When asked only 7% of households said they had difficulty keeping warm in winter Modelled heating regime may not be equivalent to people’s view of thermal comfort (we have no evidence on temperature in people’s homes to check)

11. Changes to fuel poverty definition Energy Costs More Efficient

12. Energy Efficiency & income poverty Modelled and Reported Costs

13. Fuel poverty & income poverty Modelled and Reported Costs

14. Evidence Findings 3 – Energy efficiency cannot solve fuel poverty but it can reduce it If all homes had a good energy rating (NHER=10) then 10% would still be fuel poor 40% of fuel poor are in a dwelling already rated ‘good’ in terms of energy efficiency

15. Fuel poverty & income poverty Energy Efficiency More Efficient

16. Evidence Findings 4 – Fuel poverty is too complex to statistically identify for targetting Various statistical techniques used to try to predict fuel poverty (based on household and/or dwelling characteristics) to assist in targetting Current programmes tend to be targetted on benefit eligibility but 59% of fuel poor are not entitled to means tested benefits Most mileage in mapping of proxy variables

17. Identifying fuel poor households

18. Evidence Findings 5 – Action to reduce fuel costs will have a greater impact on fuel poverty than income £10 reduction in cost is equal to £100 increase in income Fuel costs can be reduced by: –Improved energy efficiency –Reduced energy consumption –Reduced tariffs –Other direct measures eg. winter fuel allowance Current programmes aim at right measures but difficulty targetting right people

19. Changes to fuel poverty definition Winter Fuel Payments

20. Evidence Findings 6 – No Scottish evidence to support fuel poverty having poor health outcomes No direct link between fuel poverty and poor health outcomes inc. respiratory health & asthma in children No direct link between fuel poverty and excess winter deaths Some potential association between thermal comfort and mental health Data unavailable for indirect effects

21. Dissemination & next steps Publish final report on SHCS website in July