1. Statistics on Same-sex Couple Households from 2010 Census Martin O’Connell US Census Bureau Presentation to The Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics December 2, 2011

2. Topics Comparisons of 2010 Census estimates of same-sex couples with recent ACS data Problems in estimating numbers of same-sex couple households How we developed set of “Preferred estimates” to account for data capture problems uncovered in the 2010 Census Comparison of original counts from Summary File 1 with the Preferred Estimates

3. Figure 1. Same-sex Couple Households: Census 2000 and 2010 Census Counts and Preferred Estimates and ACS Estimates, 2005-2010 Numbers of same-sex households (in thousands) C-Census A-American Community Survey ACS form changed 2007-2008 Original counts Preferred estimates

4. Figure 2. Percent of All Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households, by State: 2010 Census and 2010 ACS Estimates Percent Note: States ordered from highest to lowest based on 2010 Census percentages.

5. Figure 3. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households by Form Type: 2010 Census and ACS 2010 Estimates Percent reporting Same-sex households NRFU forms for 2010 Census and CATI/CAPI forms for ACS 2010.

6. Figure 4. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households by Form Type: 2010 Census Percent reporting same-sex couple households Note: States ordered from highest to lowest based on 2010 Census percentages for all forms.

7. Figure 5. Matrix-Based Format: Pre-2008 ACS Mail and 2010 Census NRFU Form

8. Figure 6. Vertical Person-Based Format: ACS 2008+ and 2010 Census Mail Forms

9. How to Test Quality of Reporting Sex? Compare reported sex with likelihood of person’s name being the same sex. Names Index=Number of times per 1,000 that name reported was male. – Higher the index, more likely that person is male – Names like John or Thomas have high index – Names like Elizabeth or Virginia have a low index – Names like Tracy or Pat may have an uncertain/mid range index (1-2%) Names data base built during processing for that state. Names with no index value (about 15%) are those with: – Less than 10 occurrences – First name is left blank or has only one character – No one with that name reported their sex

10. How the Names Index Works Persons with index value 0-50 were likely to be female. Persons with index values of 950-1000 were likely to be male. Sharp drops in cell counts found in adjacent 50 point cells. Couples who had either a female partner with a name at the highest index value or male partner with a name at the lowest index value were then considered to have incorrectly marked the sex item on the question. They were removed from the population of same-sex couples and a series of “preferred estimates” were produced for each state.

12. Figure 7. Percentage of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting, by Form Type: 2010 Census Percent with inconsistent names

13. Map 1. Percent of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting: 2010 Census

14. Figure 8. Plot of Percent of Same-sex Couple Households Using NRFU Forms vs. Percent with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting, by State: 2010 Census

15. Figure 9. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households by Household Type: 2010 Census and 2010 ACS Estimates Percent reporting same-sex households

16. Summary Preferred 2010 Census estimates of same-sex couple households closer to 2010 ACS estimates. – Number in 2010 Census declines from 902,000 to 646,000. Declines occur for both same-sex unmarried partner and spousal households. – For unmarried partners 2010 preferred estimates still about 75,000 higher than the 2010 ACS. Possible Census campaign to encourage same-sex household reporting accounts for some differences. Spousal household estimate most improved. – Census 2010 preferred estimate of 132,000 compared with 152,000 from the 2010 ACS. Formerly Census count of 349,000. – Very few actual spousal households in US (<50,000) so names adjustment effect is greater for spouses than unmarried partners.

17. END OF PRESENTATION

18. Map 2. Percent of Same-sex Households Reporting with NRFU Forms: 2010 Census