1. Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI Akio Kitoh Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute 2010.10.19, WGNE26, Tokyo

2. MRI Technical Support JMAWMO, IOC, etc. MRIs role Forecast ResearchClimate Research Typhoon Research Physical Meteorology Research Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research Seismology and Volcanology Research Oceanographic ResearchGeochemical Research Contribution Research Programs disaster mitigation Programs Reports etc.

3. 1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3) 2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models (AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)

4. 2nd Phase (FY1995-1999)3rd Phase (FY2000-2004)4th Phase (FY2005-2009) JMAs Global Warming Research Project RCM 40km Vol 4 2001 Vol 1-3 2006-2009 RCM 20km Ver 1 2003 CGCM2.0 A: T42 L30 O: 2°×2.5° L23 Vol 5 2003 Vol 6 2005 Ver 2 2004 Vol 7 2007 Global A-O Coupled Model CGCM1 A: 4°×5° L15 O: 2°×2.5° L21 Climate Model Development at MRI Earth System Model Global Warming Projection Report Japanese Standard Climate Scenario IPCC 2nd Report 1995 CGCM2.3 A: T42 L30 O: 2°×2.5° L23 3rd Report 2001 4th Report 2007 CRCM 20km NHRCM 4km CGCM3.0 A: T L 95 L48 O: 0.5°×1° L50 CGCM3.1 A: T L 159 L48 O: 0.5°×1° L51 RCM 20km MASINGARMRI-CCM Chemical Transport Model Regional Climate Now in the 5th Phase AR5 2013

5. Ocean Sea ice Ocean Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land/Vegetation Snow on Ice sheet River Lake Cloud Microphysics interaction with aerosols Cloud Microphysics interaction with aerosols MRI Earth System Model AGCM OGCM Land Ecosystem Carbon Cycle Coupler Scup MRI.COM GSMUV TL159 (~120km) L48 (0.01hPa) Tripolar 1°× 0.5° Atmos. Chemical Climate Model Atmos. Chemical Climate Model MRI-CCM2 Ozone (Strat. + Tropo.) Aerosol Chemical Transport Model Aerosol Chemical Transport Model MASINGAR Sulfate, BC, OC, Dust, Sea-salt CO 2 MRI-CGCM3 Each component can be coupled with different resolutions TL95 (~180km)T42 (~280km)

6. obsmodel Surface ozone (ppbv) 2007.05.09 06Z Tropospheric ozone Total ozone seasonal change Ozone: reproducibility and future projection Change in ozone hole area Ozone hole area (m 2 × 10 -12 ) TOMS PRM5

7. Aerosol optical thickness MODIS retrieval: 2001 2006 mean Model simulation: 2001 2006 mean

8. MRI model resolutions MRI-CGCM2.3 (CMIP3: IPCC-AR4) MRI-CGCM3.1 (CMIP5: IPCC-AR5) MRI-CGCM3.x Next version AGCM horizontal resolution T42 (280km TL159 (120km TL959 (20km AGCM vertical resolution L30 (top: 0.4hPa) L48 (top: 0.01hPa) L60 (top: 0.01hPa) OGCM horizontal resolution 2°(0.5)×2.5° Lat-lon 0.5°×1.0° Tripolar 1/8°×1/12° (10km Tripolar OGCM vertical resolution L23L51?

9. Schedule of the CMIP5 simulations with the MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1

10. 1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3) 2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models (AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)

11. Needs for high resolution models for adaptation studies representation of topography depends on resolution (land-sea distribution, mountain height, snow- rain threshold, …) low resolution models often fail to reproduce precipitation systems such as tropical cyclones, stationary front systems and blocking high resolution models have better mean climate

12. JMA Numerical Analysis and Prediction System

13. 20-km mesh AGCM as the highest resolution climate model Climate models for IPCC AR4 (2007) JMA extended fcst JMA seasonal fcst Climate models for IPCC AR5 (2013) Real topographyHighRes for AR5 HighRes climate model

15. Future change in NH blocking frequency (JJA) The higher horizontal resolution is required to accurately simulate Euro-Atlantic blocking. The Euro-Atlantic blocking frequency is predicted to show a significant decrease in the future. 20km 120km 180km 60km Matsueda and Palmer

16. CMIP3 models wet dry CMIP3 models project wet (dry) conditions over north (south) Europe. Robust signals from CMIP3 models. MRI AGCM Much weaker signals at high resolution Precipitation change over Europe (JJA) 180km (climate) 20km (NWP) similar robust less blocking Matsueda and Palmer Unreliable ?

17. Indian summer monsoon rainfall 20-km modelIMD observation Orographic rainfall is successfully reproduced Rajendran and Kitoh (2008) Current Science

18. Time-slice experiments: 20km/60km JMA : Operational global NWP model from Nov 2007 MRI : Next generation climate model Resolution: TL959(20km)/TL319(60km) with 60 layers Time integration: Semi-Lagrangian Scheme (Yoshimura, 2004) Cumulus convection: Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert Three time periods – Present (1979-2003), Near future (2015-2039), Future (2075-2099) For 60-km model, ensemble runs Four different SST anomalies Three I.C. ensembles each How to prescribe future SSTs Use CMIP3 multi-model SST changes

19. near future end 21c HWDI 60-km vs 20-km 20-km model60-km model ensemble HWDI: heat wave duration

20. near future end 21c R5d 60-km vs 20-km 20-km model60-km model ensemble R5d: greatest 5-day total precipitation no significance test for 20-km model There is model resolution dependency; 20-km model projects larger increase in RX5D Heavy precipitation increases even in near-future but not statistically significant; it is significant almost everywhere in Asia at the end of the 21st century

21. Tropical cyclones It is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. [IPCC AR4] MEXT Kyo-sei Project (FY2002-2006) and KAKUSHIN Program (FY2007-2011) using the Earth Simulator by the MRI group

22. Wind Profile Change at max wind speed Vertical p level Distance from center Large increase in strong wind radius at mid level of troposphere Large change of inner-core wind velocity Sample Num=1035Sample Num=937 gray color=no significant difference unit m/s

23. Streamflow Decrease Increase Increasing flood risk over the Parana river basin Decreasing streamflow in the Andean mountains Future-Present20-km model: Present

24. Cooperation activities of the MRI group Earth Simulator computed model outputs for adaptation studies Cooperation activities of the MRI group (by Earth Simulator computed model outputs for adaptation studies) Adaptation study in Coastal Zones of Caribbean countries: Barbados(one, 2005), Belize (one, 2005) Adaptation studies in Colombian coastal areas, high mountain ecosystems: Colombia (two, 2005; two, 2009) Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico : Mexico (two, 2006) Adaptation to Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Peru (one, 2006; 2010?), Ecuador (one, 2006; one, 2009), Bolivia (one, 2006) Amazon Dieback : Brazil (two, 2008) Cooperation under the JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) funds Adaptation studies in agriculture in Argentina: Argentina (three, 2008) Adaptation studies in monsoon Asia: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam (one each, 2008 & 2009) Adaptation studies in Yucatan wetland: Mexico (three, 2009) Adaptation studies in South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay (2010 & 2011) Cooperation under the World Bank funds Other collaborations with India, Korea, Thailand, USA, Spain, …

25. SST O CMIP3 AOGCMs A 20km,60km AGCM NHM5km Time slice experiments Prediction of regional climate by one-way nested NHM Lower B.C. A Kakushin Team-Extremes Time-Slice Experiments Regional Climate Model NHM2/1km Projected SST Nested in the NHM5km AGCM/NHM are climate model versions of the JMA operational NWP models Nested in the AGCM20km

26. JMA NHM Horizontal resolutionNHM5kmNHM2km Grid points669x527x50767x562 x50 Cumulus parameterizationYes (Kain-Fritsch)No Cloud physics1-moment 3-ice bulk scheme2-moment 3-ice bulk scheme The spectral boundary coupling (SBC method YesNo Execution period - Main experiment - The preliminary experiment 17 th May – 30 th Oct. for each year for 25 years x 3 series. for 2002-2006 for the perfect boundary experiment using regional analysis data. 1 st Jun. – 30 th Oct. for each year for 25 years x 3 series. Selected months for 2002-2006 using the NHM5km perfect boundary experiment. Time step24s12s Output (2D)1 hourly Output (3D)3 hourly

27. Changes in pdf/cdf of precipitation (Jun-Oct) pdf/cdf of daily precipitation (all Japan)pdf/cdf of hourly precipitation (all Japan) End 21c Present End 21c Present Near-future: No change in daily precipitation Increase of strong hourly precipitation increase of short-term strong rain End 21c: Increase of strong both of daily and hourly precipitation daily 40% increase for > 150mm/day hourly 60% increase for > 50mm/hour Near-future

28. Upward motion (top 3): NHM5km Mean 3rd Updraft (m/s) Mean Top3 Updraft (m/s) P F P F a) b) c) LCL 463468m LCL-LFC 7683hPa CAPE: 1139 1538J/kg CIN: 2630J/kg DRY S N harder to occur taller convection Pacific Ocean Japan Sea Japan Present Future

29. Schematic of changing characteristics Jet stream will shift southward. Higher SST Supply of high e air mass at the low level Dry Delay of the northward movement of the Baiu front Larger convective instability More intense convections Increment of intense precipitation

30. Relationship between GW and ENSO Precip Future–Present (Jul)Precip El Niño–La Niña (Jul) MRI-CGCM2

31. Comparisons of locations and values of heavy rainfall events >1000mm/day >500mm/day >300mm/day Obs NHM5km Present NHM5km Future

32. July Precipitation Characteristics: precip wet days SDII OBS(APHRO)AGCM-20kmRCM-5kmRCM-2km # all data are averaged in 20-km grid We find that RCM-5km is applicable for projections of future changes in daily precipitation, while RCM-2km for hourly precipitation