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NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges Dr. David Novak Mr. Joseph Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer Chief, Ocean Applications.

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Presentation on theme: "NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges Dr. David Novak Mr. Joseph Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer Chief, Ocean Applications."— Presentation transcript:

1 NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges Dr. David Novak Mr. Joseph Sienkiewicz Science and Operations Officer Chief, Ocean Applications Branch Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction WWRP THORPEX Polar Workshop Oslo, Norway October 6, 2010

2 Outline Operational forecast services –North Atlantic and Pacific –Alaska –Arctic Science Challenges –Observations and Verification –Ocean – Atmosphere Interaction –Predictability –Climate – Weather Interface 2

3 3 North Atlantic and Pacific Forecast Services Ocean Prediction Center -High Seas -Warnings and Forecasts - Cyclone, wind and wave focus - Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) - subtropics to low Arctic - Coastal Guidance - Operational Oceanography - portal -analyses / forecasts

4 Alaska Forecast Services NCEP/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Guidance Land-based human forecast guidance for the Day 3-8 period. Selective consensus/weighting of suite of international model guidance solutions Surface Guidance Forecast Discussions Sensible Weather Element Guidance Surface Analysis

5 Alaska Forecast Services Weather Forecast Offices 6 km grid of Sensible Weather Watch / Warning / Advisories Weather Forecast Offices responsible for watches, warnings, advisories and the local forecast (text, graphical, and gridded) Human forecasters interpret observational network, NCEP guidance, and local models to make forecasts

6 Supported USCG Hamilton on Arctic Mission Sep 2008 First USCG non-ice breaking/hardened hull in Arctic Anticipate growing presence and support in Arctic Working with NWS Alaska Region Ice services, analysis and prediction Oceanographic analyses and forecasts Meteorological services (observation / prediction) NOAA Ecological services Arctic Marine Weather Services Operations require: accurate real-time information to mariners on weather, ocean, and ice conditions 1 1 Report to Congress, U.S. Coast Guard Polar Operations NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center Guidance 6

7 NWS Alaska Region and Ocean Prediction Center Arctic Web Page GEFS Ensemble Probability winds 25 kt or higher Navy NCOM Ocean Surface Current NOAA OI SST with Ice Edge - Marine focused human forecast guidance - Day 1-5 - Oceanographic and probabilistic guidance to Day 3

8 Local Office NCEP Service Centers and Models Service Drives the Science Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years North American Ensemble Forecast System Lead Time Warnings Watches Forecasts Threats GuidanceOutlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Wave and Ice Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation 8 Hurricane Models Service Centers Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) HPC OPC TPC SPC SWPC CPC AWC

9 Observations and Verification –Hazards focused Ocean Atmosphere –Ocean and sea-ice modeling –Fluxes Predictability –Mesoscale modeling –Ensembles and ensemble applications –Targeted observations Climate – Weather Interface –Earth System Models Science Challenges 9

10 10 Observations and Verification Limited conventional surface / upper air Majority are remotely sensed Harsh environment Need hazard-focused obs ( blowing snow, high winds, ice character, orographic precipitation ) Global RawinsondesMarine Obs -- 12 Hour Total Aircraft Wind/Temp Reports Polar Satellite Radiances (just 2 sat) Drift Winds from Geostationary Satellites DMSP Imager – Sfc winds/PW Improved Polar observations Improved prediction and applications

11 11 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global, FNMOC Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS Short-Range Ensemble Forecast MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 11 Regional DA Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 3.5B Obs/Day Observations and the Model Production Suite

12 Ocean – Atmosphere NCEP Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) – (1/12 deg HYCOM) NOAA requires a global eddy-resolving ocean model NCEP running U.S. Navy 1/12° HYCOM in test mode NAVOCEANO delivering initialization data daily NCEP converting Navy HYCOM to GFS/GDAS forcing Short term - Oct 2010 – Parallel testing phase - April 2011 – first product suite available (NOMADS) Longer term - In-house analysis and initialization (2014) -Ocean component of coupled Hurricane Forecast System -Ocean component for future Climate Forecast System Coupled to GFS, Ice, LDAS, etc… 12

13 Ocean – Atmosphere Multi-Grid WAVEWATCH III Domain expanded to 82.5 deg N in 2009 from 76 deg N Extension requested by NWS Alaska Region diminished ice coverage waves impacting Alaskan Coast causing erosion 4 minute coastal grids for AK Polar cap extension of NWW3 in a year or so Working with NRL on a curvilinear version 20 member global ensemble 20 member Navy FNMOC Wave to be added 13

14 Ocean – Atmosphere Extratropical Storm Surge Coastal erosion due to: - Reduced sea ice - Increased wave action -Melting permafrost Pt. Barrow - Developed by NWS Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) - GFS forcing - Hourly output to 96 hrs - No ice, tides 14

15 Ocean – Atmosphere Sea Ice Efforts NCEP Daily Ice Analysis http :// Microwave based AMSR-E/SSMI 12.7 km resolution Daily concentration product Input to models and forecasters NCEP Ice Drift Model http :// Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890, 1998 Sea Ice for NCEP GFS 3 layer thermodynamic model since May 2005 Sea ice concentration prescribed Sea ice/snow thickness predicted Planning for improvements beginning Dec 2010 Sea Ice for NCEP CFS Modified GFDL Sea Ice Simulator Dynamics - Hunke and Dukowicz (1997) Thermodynamics – Winton 2000

16 NAM 6 hourly updating forecasts out to 84 h Expanded 12 km Domain to include Polar Regions with additional 4 km nests Rapid Refresh Hourly updating forecasts out to 18 h Expanded 13 km Domain to include Polar Regions WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR 16 Predictability Mesoscale Modeling SREF 6 hourly updating 21 member ensemble forecasts out to 87 h Expanded 32 km Domain to include Polar Regions model domain (dash) output domain (solid) High-impact weather is often a mesoscale phenomenon 4 km

17 Predictability Short Range Ensemble Forecast System 17 –Concept - Multi-model moderate resolution (32 km) ensemble for short-range high-impact events –Ensemble generation – 21 members (4 different models) –32 km –Four times daily with forecasts out to 87 hours –Products – Wide variety of traditional and specific applications (aviation, fire weather, winter weather, etc) Prob Vis < ½ mileProb Blizzard

18 Predictability North American Ensemble Forecast System 18 –Concept - Combines MSC and NWS global ensembles to improve probabilistic forecasts –Increased ensemble size –Multi-model, -perturbation, and -physics –Ensemble generation – 42 members –70 km for NWS model, 100 km for MSC model –Twice daily with forecasts out to 16 days –Data exchange – 80 variables –Basic products – Bias corrected ensemble, climate anomaly forecasts, probabilistic forecasts (10%, 90% and ensemble mean, medium, mode and spread) –Derived products – Downscaled products (5 km), Week-2 temperature, web displays, etc

19 Predictability Value-added by Multi-center Approach 19 January 2011

20 20 Add FNMOC ensemble in January 2011 Improve basic products – adopt new methods (such as Bayesian Methods Add new derived products Bias correct all model output variables on model native grid (~200, 2-3 yrs) Downscale elements Extend applications – Intra-seasonal, regional, wave, hydro (river) ensembles Possible Polar Enhancements –Additional elements –Polar-centric domains Predictability NAEFS Plans Example Polar GEM domain

21 21 Predictability NAEFS & THORPEX NAEFS prototype ensemble component of THORPEX Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) THORpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Articulates operational needs Transfers New methods

22 Day -4-6 RAWIN Russia Day -3-5 G-IV Day -1-3 C-130 G-IV CONUS VR Day -5-6 E-AMDAR Alaska VR Winter T-PARC - take additional observations as the perturbation propagates downstream into Arctic and North America Winter T-PARC 2009 – A THORPEX field campaign Lead by NCEP Multi-agency coordination Predictability Targeted Observations

23 23 Predictability Targeted Observation Verification Variable # cases improved #cases degraded Surface pressure 3715 Temperature 3517 Vector Wind 3616 Humidity 2824 OVERALL 75% cases improved 0% cases neutral 25% cases degraded Courtesy Yucheng Song (EMC) Winter T-PARC (2009)NCEP WSR Program (2005-2008) Variable # cases improved #cases degraded Surface pressure 7949 Temperature 8740 Vector Wind 9038 Humidity 7851 OVERALL 71% cases improved 1% cases neutral 28% cases degraded Consistent with studies (e.g., Langland 2005; Buizza et al. 2007; Cardinali et al. 2007; Irvine et al. 2010)

24 Land Ocean For All Applications Atmosphere Cryosphere Climate – Weather Interface Fully Coupled Earth System Model 24 Chemistry Biology

25 25 Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wind Waves -------------- LSM ---------------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosystem -------------- Etc Physics (1,2,3) ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) Bias Corrector Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change 1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3 ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, mpi communications, etc) Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupler6 Etc. Dynamics (1,2) Application Driver NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL 1, 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments Atmospheric Model Chemistry

26 AttributeOperational ConfigurationQ1FY11 Configuration Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) 26 Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2 January 2011

27 CFS v1CFS v2 Correlation Day Correlation Climate – Weather Interface Climate Forecast System Version 2 Major upgrade in Jan 2011: –Higher resolution for all earth system components; –Atmospheric assimilation @ T574L64, coupled to 40-level MOM4 ocean model, interactive 3 layer sea-ice model and 4 soil level land model –Daily real time, fully coupled and fully calibrated T126L64 forecasts, will include 4 runs to 9-months, 3 runs to 1 season, and 9 runs to 45 days. –Has skill in predicting ENSO on seasonal time scales and MJO in the week2-week4 range. Courtesy: Qin Zhang, CPC

28 Summary Increasing service requirements for the poles Enhance observations necessary for improved polar prediction Understanding and predicting Ocean – Atmosphere interaction a necessity Development of high-resolution and ensemble models and service applications ongoing Working towards fully coupled Earth System Model 28

29 Pan-Am Global or tri-polar Grid (4500 x 3928) Arctic bi-polar patch above 47 N, Mercator grid 78.6 S – 47 N Coastline at 10 m isobath Open Bering Strait 32 layers, first z-level 3m 17 minutes per model day forecast on 1001 sp5 cpus Time step = 180 s (baroclinic) NCODA for preparing initialization fields (at NAVO) NCEP Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) – (1/12 deg HYCOM)

30 Access to NCEP Products/Services NOMADS NOMADS – NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System –A digital archive and real time distribution of NOAAs operational weather models –geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability –Built on pull technology –Operational February 2009 Portal for Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (1979-2010) –Created with fully coupled CFSv2 –1°x 1° grid spacing 30

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