1. ACCESS Rainfall Verification
Beth Ebert previously provided detailed stats
Subsequently elevated to greatness.
Following are NMOC stats provided by Jim Fraser.
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

2. ACCESS Rainfall Verification
Stats:
“Warm Season”: Nov to Mar
“Cool Season”: Apr to Aug
General comments:
ACCESS systems generally outperform their LAPS/GASP counterparts, but tend to under-forecast average rain intensity
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

3. ACCESS-G (Warm) WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010 Observed GASP
Observed
GASP
ACCESS-G
00-24 hr
24-48 hr
48-72 hr
Rain Area (km2*103)
1574
1660
1679
1630
1562
1607
1582
Avg Intensity (mm/d)
11.27
8.43
8.76
8.60
8.33
8.47
8.50
Rain Volume (km3)
17.7
14.0
14.7
13.0
13.6
13.4
Max Intensity (mm/d)
71.59
40.68
46.12
45.85
52.47
55.51
54.66
Mean Abs Error (mm/d)
2.43
2.71
3.06
2.17
2.44
2.74
RMS Error (mm/d)
6.21
6.80
7.50
5.86
6.47
7.22
Correlation Coefficient
0.56
0.50
0.40
0.61
0.55
0.48
Bias Score
1.05
1.07
1.04
0.99
1.02
1.01
Probability of Detection
0.70
0.67
0.75
0.74
0.69
False Alarm Ratio
0.33
0.37
0.41
0.25
0.28
0.31
Critical Success Index
0.52
0.43
0.60
0.57
0.53
Hanssen & Kuipers Score
0.58
0.46
0.66
0.63
Equitable Threat Score
0.35
0.29
0.49
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

4. ACCESS-R (Warm) WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010 Observed LAPS_PT375
Observed
LAPS_PT375
ACCESS-R
00-24 hr
24-48 hr
48-72 hr
Rain Area (km2*103)
1450
1565
1547
1475
1556
1528
1485
Avg Intensity (mm/d)
11.9
12.6
11.8
11.7
8.7
8.5
8.6
Rain Volume (km3)
17.3
19.7
18.2
13.5
13.0
12.8
Max Intensity (mm/d)
91.0
108.1
104.5
105.9
103.5
98.7
100.5
Mean Abs Error (mm/d)
3.0
3.2
3.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
RMS Error (mm/d)
8.0
9.2
6.9
7.4
Correlation Coefficient
0.53
0.44
0.37
0.54
0.48
0.42
Bias Score
1.08
1.07
1.02
1.05
Probability of Detection
0.74
0.69
0.62
0.75
0.72
0.68
False Alarm Ratio
0.31
0.35
0.39
0.30
0.32
0.34
Critical Success Index
0.55
0.50
0.57
Hanssen & Kuipers Score
0.63
0.49
0.65
0.61
0.56
Equitable Threat Score
0.38
0.46
0.43
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

5. ACCESS-A Average intensity still under-forecast
Maximum intensity over-done, particularly in warm season
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

6. ACCESS-A (warm) WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010 MESO_LAPS_PT125
Observed
MESO_LAPS_PT125
MALAPS_PT100
ACCESS-A
00-24hr
12-36hr
24-48hr
Rain Area (km2*103)
1530.
1717
1725
1708
1511
1484
1462
1621
1606
1617
Avg Intensity (mm/d)
12.8
12.2
11.7
12.4
9.6
10.3
9.9
Rain Volume (km3)
18.7
20.9
21.0
20.0
19.3
19.0
15.6
16.6
16.0
Max Intensity (mm/d)
95.0
115.1
110.6
114.7
220.3
101.0
218.4
301.2
329.4
310.2
Mean Abs Error (mm/d)
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.1
3.2
3.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
RMS Error (mm/d)
8.7
9.0
9.4
9.3
10.0
7.9
8.5
8.8
Correlation Coefficient
0.46
0.43
0.37
0.50
0.38
0.52
0.48
0.45
Bias Score
1.18
1.19
1.17
0.99
0.97
0.96
1.06
1.05
Probability of Detection
0.72
0.70
0.67
0.60
0.75
0.74
0.73
False Alarm Ratio
0.39
0.41
0.29
0.31
0.30
Critical Success Index
0.49
0.47
0.54
0.44
0.57
0.56
0.55
Hanssen & Kuipers Score
0.51
0.65
0.63
0.61
Equitable Threat Score
0.36
0.35
0.32
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

7. ACCESS-A (cold) WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010 MESO_LAPS_PT125
Observed
MESO_LAPS_PT125
MALAPS_PT100
ACCESS-A
00-24hr
12-36hr
24-48hr
Rain Area (km2*103)
963
1062
1075
1089
674
658
631
854
832
828.
Avg Intensity (mm/d)
7.31
7.82
7.68
7.32
8.58
8.36
8.57
6.66
6.98
7.00
Rain Volume (km3)
7.0
8.3
8.0
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.7
Max Intensity (mm/d)
44.25
57.3
52.58
55.0
98.85
93.37
92.56
75.14
82.60
82.65
Mean Abs Error (mm/d)
1.48
1.50
1.54
1.13
1.16
1.32
0.96
1.02
1.07
RMS Error (mm/d)
4.32
4.31
4.45
3.64
3.76
4.12
2.96
3.20
3.37
Correlation Coefficient
0.38
0.34
0.53
0.49
0.39
0.60
0.56
Bias Score
1.21
1.23
1.25
0.70
0.68
0.66
0.89
0.86
Probability of Detection
0.59
0.57
0.51
0.40
0.64
0.61
False Alarm Ratio
0.52
0.54
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.31
Critical Success Index
0.37
0.36
0.43
0.41
0.32
0.47
Hanssen & Kuipers Score
0.45
0.48
Equitable Threat Score
0.26
0.35
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

8. ACCESS WGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology