1. THE STRENGHT OF 70% REVISING A GIVEN THRESHOLD OF RABIES CONTROL Tollwut Suveillance Data UFZ - Project group Ecological Epidemiology EcoEpi Leipzig Modell

2. The strength of 70%

3. Eradication ~ 70% Europe Persistence Anderson et al. (1981). Population dynamics of fox rabies in Europe. Nature 289: 765-770 The strength of 70%

5. Field planning Per capita number of baits to get >70% Quality Assessment Control programs with sero <70% failed Modelling Concordance in predicting 70% validates

6. Revising the benchmark

7. EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Simulation Model Eradication ~ 60% ~ 70% Conservative Improved Europe Persistence Andersons model + individual foxes + local transmission = …

8. Individuals Population ReasoningReasoning Flying Foxes Biological Foxes Flying Foxes Biological Foxes Revised Benchmark

9. EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Fox density in spring no rabies [per km²] Predicted Herd Immunity Reference Flying Foxes Revising the benchmark Biological Foxes

10. Quantifying benefit

11. Quantifying possible benefit… Todays target 75% 10% less Apply relation to field strategy… 20 14 20 instead of 14 baits/km 2 cost additionally 120.000 p.a. per 10.000 km² vaccination area Construct relation between bait density and immunization level… Simulation: Target immunity down by 10 percentage points necessary baits decrease by one third.

12. SummarySummary

13. SummarySummary Appropriate modelling and field observations coincidentally suggest 60% herd immunity and as useful target in rabies control thus Relative to today's baiting strategy one third of applied resources could be saved by applying 14 baits per sq km ?

14. Thank you for your attention D. Eisinger L. Tischendorf M. Müller V. Grimm F. Jeltsch C. Wissel T. Müller C. Staubach T. Selhorst H. Schlüter

15. EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Simulation Model Target down by 10 percentage points = Baits decrease by 30% General relation:

16. EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Population model (Anderson et al. 1981) Individual-based model (Eisinger et al. 2005) Two models of fox rabies Start of vaccination campaign Both models reflect dynamics of field data correctly!

17. EcoEpi – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Vaccination Biannual bait distribution along flight lines Individual bait consumption Transmission Within group contacts Neighbourhood contacts Mating activity Dispersal Foxes in families Mortality/Reproduction Dispersal Simulation Model