1. WTO Accession & Russia’s Agri-Food Sector Eu.Serova Analytical Centre AFE www.iet.ru/afe International Agricultural Trade and Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia October 31, 2005

2. Narrative story of Russian Accession Narrative story of Russian Accession 1990 – USSR GATT observer mid-1992 – Russian Federation GATT observer June 1993 - President Yeltsyn’s official statement on intention to access, Working Group on Russia’s WTO Accession set up December 1994 - official application for accession April 1995 - negotiating process approved by the State Duma. 1997- start of agricultural negotiations of Accession

3. Current Russian negotiation position Base period 1993-1995 AMS – US$9 bln Bound tariff 19% Export subsidies

4. Russian negotiation position Russia: PSE,% Russian negotiation position Russia: PSE,%

5. Russian negotiation position Russia: AMS=US 9 $ bln

6. Russian negotiation position AMS/ha

7. Russian negotiation position Russia: import tariff TRQ: beef and pork Volume quota: poultry Variable import duty: sugar

8. Russian negotiation position import tariffstructure Russian negotiation position import tariff structure USAEU-15JapanBrazilMexicoKenyaIndiaRussiaMean 11.920.580.135.644.410011613 Median 3.810.9123536100 15 Min 00000100100 Max 378.7218.52553.655450.710030050 Std. deviation 3329.4203.311.242.1052.59 # of tariff lines 1769220018069421080665690847

9. Russian negotiation position Russia: effect of tiered formula Current tariff Negotiated initial bound tariff New Agreement final tariff t 1 =at 0 /(a+t 0 ) a=5a=15a=50 Meat19.467.54.712.328.7 Fish1019.548.514 Dairy1542.54.511.123 Sugar2949.54.511.524.9

10. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector Russia: share of green box measures in total ag. budget

11. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector Share of green box policies costs in GDP, 1997, %

12. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector ag. budget structure

13. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector export taxes

14. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector ag.growth

15. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector food industry growth

16. Impact of Russia’s accession on Agri-Food sector trade