1. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 1 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Fixed and Sliding Goals in Education? A tiny example of a famous systems insight, applied to education

2. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 2 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal

3. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 3 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal

4. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 4 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal

5. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 5 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Striving to Reach an Achievement Goal

6. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 6 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Striving (But Falling a Bit Short)

7. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 7 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Where Does the Goal Come From?

8. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 8 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Where Does the Goal Come From?

9. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 9 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany A Flexible Goal Can Slide

10. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 10 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Sliding Goals in Sophistication of School Texts? School Texts Have Gotten Simpler Over Time The most difficult readers were generally published before 1918. By modern standards, Professor McGuffy’s pre- and post-Civil War readers were very difficult. Average sentence length of 1963-91 books was shorter than that of 1945-1962 books. Mean length dropped from 20 to 14 words, “the equivalent of dropping one or two clauses from every sentence” Wording of schoolbooks after 1963 for 8 th graders was as simple as that in books used by 5 th graders before 1963 Wording of 12 th grade texts after 1963 was simpler than the wording of 7 th grade texts before 1963. Today’s mean sixth, seventh, and eighth grade readers are simpler than fifth grade readers were before World War II.

11. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 11 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Could Declining Sophistication of Texts Account for Declining SAT Verbal Scores?

12. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 12 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Sliding Goals in School Texts?

13. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 13 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany A Formal Model to Fit to the Data

14. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 14 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Historical and Simulated SAT Verbal Scores

15. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 15 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany The Endogenous Point of View Causal forces (school texts?) are not exogenous but feed back upon themselves “System as cause”

16. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 16 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany The “X/N” Matrix Striving for understanding and leverage, but failing  Achieving understanding and leverage Accepting fate, Predicting, Preparing  Confused, Misguided, Misguiding  ExogenousEndogenous True (Predominant) State of Affairs Exogenous Endogenous Predominant Mode of Analysis

17. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 17 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany School Texts Studies Marilyn Jager Adams, Advancing our Students’ Language and Literacy, The Challenge of Complex Texts, The American Educator 34, 4 (winter 2010-11) Hayes, Wolfer & Wolfe (1996), Schoolbook Simplification and Its Relation to the Decline in SAT-Verbal Scores, American Educational Research Journal 33 (2): 498-508. http://www.soc.cornell.edu/hayes-lexical- analysis/schoolbooks/Papers/HayesWolferAndWolf1996.pdfhttp://www.soc.cornell.edu/hayes-lexical- analysis/schoolbooks/Papers/HayesWolferAndWolf1996.pdf

18. G. P. Richardson AAAS STEM Meeting, Nov 9-10, 2011 18 Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Optimal Parameters for SAT Fit Maximum of simulations/optimizations found at: Pressure to devote time and effort elsewhere = 7.99971 Time to act on gap = 17.2977 *Time to adjust goal = 37.935 Simulations = 25138 Optimizations = 107 Pass = 3 Payoff = -711.039 --------------------------------- The final payoff is -711.039