1. The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios Nankyoung Moon 1, Sung-You Hong 2, Soontae Kim 3, Jung-Hun Woo 4 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2 Yonsei University, 3 Ajou University, 4 Konkuk University

2. 2 Contents Background Multi-scale Modeling System Climate Change & Air Quality Summary

3. 3 1. Background  Ozone concentrations are sensitive to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and mixing height, etc.  Changes in climate over the next century are expected to result in changes in many or all of these meteorological parameters, which could have important impacts on air quality.  To project the effects of global climate change on regional air quality in Korea.

4. 4 Urban Scale (Korean Peninsula: 9km)-WRF,CMAQ Regional Scale (Asian region: 50km)-RSMGlobal Scale (~200km)-ECHAM5 Local Scale (East Asia region: 27km)-WRF Return Downscaling Method 2. Multi-scale Modeling System

5. 5 Global Precipitation & Temperature ECHAM5 (Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorology) (Roeckner et al. 2006, J. Climate ) RMIP phase III (RCM intercomparison project over Asia, Beijing workshop, May 2008) GCM forcing : ECHAM5 For control climate: 1978-2000 For future climate: 2038-2070 Participants : 11 RCM group including Yonsei Univ, RSM (Korea, China, Japan, Russia, Austrailia, USA) GCM forcing : ECHAM5 For control climate: 1978-2000 For future climate: 2038-2070 Participants : 11 RCM group including Yonsei Univ, RSM (Korea, China, Japan, Russia, Austrailia, USA) RMIP domain (171*131(50km)) Global Temperature

6. 6 Physics Option Short-wave Dudhia (Dudhia 1989) Long-wave RRTM (Mlawer et al. 1997) Surface Parameterization NOAH (Chen and Duhia 2001) PBL Scheme Yonsei University (Hong et al. 2006) Cumulus Parameterization Kain-Fritsch (Kain 2004) Micro-cloud Physics WSM3 (Hong et al. 1998) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

7. 7 Precipitation Anomaly during 1979- 2006 over the East Asia region (105E-150E, 25N-45N) 1995 summer : near normal summer Current climate Future climate (2000~2100) 1995 2055 2055 : Median year during the RMIP III period (2038~2070)

8. 8 Experimental Setup ECHAM5 RSM (50km) WRF (27km) WRF (9km) Global  Asia  East Asia  Korea summer 1994~1996 JJA: Current summer climate simulations ECHAM5 RSM (50km) WRF (27km)WRF (9km) Global  Asia  East Asia  Korea summer 2054~2056 JJA: Future summer climate simulations BC & IC BC by 1-way nesting

9. 9 Summer Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)  JJA Accumulated Precipitation (mm) Observation (CMAP) Present (1994-1996) Future (2054-2056) Future - Present Precipitation will be increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area in the future climate. 3. Climate Change & Air Quality

10. 10 Summer Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) Present (1994-1996) Future (2054-2056) The north pacific cyclonic will strengthen in the future Future - Present  JJA 500 hPa geopotential height (m)

11. 11 Present (1994-1996) Future (2054-2056) Future – Present The marine water vapor in the future diverse well compare to the present climate over the north Pacific area. The specific humidity increase in the future climate. Summer Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)  JJA 850 hPa wind (m s -1 ) and specific humidity (kg kg -1 )

12. 12 Present (1994-1996) Future (2054-2056) The mean temperature in Korea, Japan and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2 ℃. Future – Present Summer Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)  JJA 850 hPa geopotential height (m) and temperature ( ℃ )

13. 13 Sudo Kangwon Chungcheong Youngnam Honam Analysis Area

14. 14 Present (1994-1996) Future (2054-2056) Difference (Future-Present) Future Climate -Flow changes sounthwest from west - Increasing of specific humidity Wind & Specific Humidity  JJA 850 hPa wind (m s -1 ) and specific humidity (kg kg -1 )

15. 15 Surface Maximum Mean Temperature 1996 1995 1994 2056 2055 2054

16. 16 Surface Maximum Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Maximum temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.54 ℃ )

17. 17 1996 1995 1994 2056 2055 2054 Surface Minimum Mean Temperature

18. 18 Surface Minimum Mean Temperature 3-yr Mean Minimum temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.44 ℃ ) 1994~1996 2054~2056

19. 19 1996 1995 1994 2056 2055 2054 Surface Mean Temperature

20. 20 Surface Mean Temperature 3-yr Mean temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.51 ℃ ) 1994~1996 2054~2056

21. 21 Surface Temperature - JJA Daily Mean Min. Temp.Daily Mean Max. Temp.Daily Mean Temp. Diff. ( Future – Current) PresentFutureDifference Mean Min. Temp.20.5722.011.44 Mean Max. Temp.28.2629.801.54 Mean Temp.24.1125.621.51 ( Unit: ℃ )

22. 22 Accumulated Precipitation 1996 1995 1994 2056 2055 2054

23. 23 Accumulated Precipitation 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Accumulated precipitation difference (Future – Current : 76.7mm)

24. 24 Accumulated Precipitation R.O.Korea PresentFuture 831.8908.5 Difference 76.7 (mm)

25. 25 Maximum Mean PBL height 1996 1995 1994 2056 2055 2054

26. 26 Maximum Mean PBL height 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Maximum PBL height difference (Future – Current : -11m)

27. 27 Maximum Mean PBL height R.O.Korea PresentFuture 11911180 -11 (mm)

28. 28 1996 1995 1994 2056 2054 Mean PBL height 2055

29. 29 Mean PBL height 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean PBL height difference (Future – Current :-24m)

30. 30 Mean PBL height R.O.Korea PresentFuture 569545 -24 (m)

31. 31 Community Multi-pollutant Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ

32. 32 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model CMAQ Simulation CMAQVersion 4.6 Chemical MechanismSAPRC99 Emissions2004 CAPSS & Intex-B Boundary ConditionGEOS-CHEM Advection SchemePPM Horizontal DiffusionMulti-scale Vertical DiffusionEddy Cloud SchemeRADM DatesJJA (1994-1996), (2054-2056)

33. 33 Input data Area Nonroad Mobile Point Annual Emissions Shape files Emissions Shape files AQF MIMS Spatial Allocator MIMS Spatial Allocator Annual, Monthly Annual Annual Spatial allocation ; domain-specific Temporal allocation ; hourly resolved emissions Chemical speciation ; CB4, SAPRC99, RADM2 Plume rise ; Point Sources SMOKE processing KEI-EIPS Format conversion DB/ASCII  IDA SCC mapping Split factors for chemical speciation Temporal profiles Surrogates Spatial allocation for county-based emissions Emissions processing with SMOKE

34. 34 NO (ex.) Point Mobile Area Non-road Point

35. 35 Sudo Kangwon Chungcheong Youngnam Honam Regional Scale MCIP & CMAQ 27 – 9km ℃ Model Domain

36. 36 Model vs Observation

37. 37 Met_only A1B Case Run Climate Change Emissions ○ X ○ ○ -Met_only : Considered only meteorology change due to climate change with the same level of present emissions -A1B : Considered both meteorology change and emissions change in the future Simulation Case

38. 38 Emissions (present)

39. 39 Emission Projection Factor (2055)

40. 40 Present Future (Unit : moles/s) Future Emissions CO NO 2 SO 2

41. 41 Surface Mean O 3 Concentration (met_only) 1996 1995 1994 2056 2055 2054

42. 42 Surface Mean O 3 Concentration (met_only) 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean O 3 Concentration Difference (Future – Current)

43. 43 Surface Mean O 3 Concentration (met_only) R.O.Korea PresentFuture 46.2752.40 Difference 6.12 (ppb)

44. 44 Surface Mean O 3 Concentration (A1B) 1996 19951994 2056 2055 2054

45. 45 Surface Mean O 3 Concentration (A1B) 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean O 3 Concentration Difference (Future – Current)

46. 46 Surface Mean O 3 Concentration (A1B) R.O.Korea PresentFuture 46.2760.67 Difference 14.40 (ppb)

47. 47  Process Analysis - IPR (Integrated Process Rate) : can be used to determine the relative contributions of individual physical and chemical process

48. 48 Process Analysis for Surface Ozone

49. 49 Process Analysis for Surface Ozone

50. 50 Process Analysis for PBL Ozone

51. 51 (ppb) RegionS.D.C.C.K.W.Y.N.H.N.R.O.Korea A1B16.7716.0113.6216.2917.1416.09 met_only6.947.235.067.397.957.08 Mean Maximum 8-hr O 3 concentration (Difference)

52. 52 (ppb) RegionS.D.C.C.K.W.Y.N.H.N.R.O.Korea A1B20.2220.4819.8623.7325.8122.73 met_only8.0810.435.9111.4114.0710.75 Frequency of 8-hr O 3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb

53. 53  C-R Function  b : The increasing ratio of premature deaths in RoK  ΔO 3 : The difference of max. 8-hr ozone con. btwn future and present  Pop : Population - The mortality effect of increased ozone concentration on the population of RoK was estimated using the C-R (Concentration-Response) function. Premature deaths due to ozone increase

54. 54 Regions Premature deaths A1BMet_only SD1,595897 CC504274 KW16385 YN1236688 HN662350 RoK4,1602,294 - In was estimated that the total no. of premature deaths sue to increased ozone concentrations in the future (2055) compared with present (1995) is 4,160 under climate change (A1B case), and 2,294 under meteorology change alone. Estimation of premature deaths

55. 55 1. Future climate in ROK from the A1B scenario  Temperature : increase 1.54 ℃ of mean max. temp.  PPTN : increase 76.7mm  Wind : west → southwest  Specific humidity : increase  PBL : decrease 11m of max. mean PBL 2. The impact of climate change on regional scale air quality was evaluated under the SRES AB1 scenario.  Met_olny : increase 6.1ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA  A1B : increase 14.4ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA 4. Summary

56. 56 3. Frequency of 8-hr O 3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb (NAAQS)  Met_only : 22.73  A1B : 10.75 4. Ozone concentration will be increased even if human activities continue as they are, not to mention under the future emissions. 5. Process Analysis  The effect of advection related to meteorology is relatively dominant rather than the other factors 4. Summary

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