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2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast WeatherBug Forecast April 15, 2010 Hurricane Bill, NOAA.

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Presentation on theme: "2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast WeatherBug Forecast April 15, 2010 Hurricane Bill, NOAA."— Presentation transcript:

1 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast WeatherBug Forecast April 15, 2010 Hurricane Bill, NOAA

2 Review of 2009 Season Forecast

3 Forecast Numbers:  11-13 named Storms  6-8 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status  3-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 130% of normal 2009 Season Forecast 9 3 2 60% What Happened? El Nino conditions developed during June 2009  Increased vertical wind shear in the western Atlantic and Gulf  Persistent troughing over the central Atlantic  Reduced rising motion across the Caribbean

4 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

5 General Overview

6 2010 Atlantic Basin Names AlexBonnieColin DanielleEarlFiona GastonHermineIgor JuliaKarlLisa MatthewNicoleOtto PaulaRichardShary TomasVirginieWalter

7 Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution

8 Atlantic Basin Averages

9 Factors To Review  ENSO – Will there be El Nino or La Nina conditions during Summer and how will that impact hurricane formation?  Atlantic SST – Will the ocean waters be warmer or cooler than average and what role does it play?  Recent Trends – How active have we been in the past 10-20 years compared to longer term averages?  Analogs – How many storms formed during past hurricane seasons with similar atmospheric conditions, both current and forecast?

10 El Nino Example - 1997 La Nina Example - 1988 ENSO Cycle

11 Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly

12 Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC Increased uncertainty (El Nino vs. La Nina) during prime months (ASO)

13 Atlantic SST Forecast

14 Still midway through active, WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~10 more years Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

15 Recent Trends – Warm AMO Phase YearStormsHurricanesMajor 199519115 19961396 1997831 199814103 19991285 20001583 20011594 20021242 20031673 20041596 200528157 20061052 20071563 20081686 2009932 Average14.477.673.87 1950-200010.045.962.53 1950-200910.806.172.73

16  Going back to 1950, identify the best matches to the following characteristics:  Moderate winter-time El Nino that weakened to neutral or La Nina during the calendar year  Seasons during or “on the cusp” of the “warm” phase of the AMO  Seasons where similar conditions in other global patterns existed (NAO, PDO) Analog Years

17 List of Years and Results YearStormsHurricanesMajor 19581075 19661173 199814103 20031673 Average12.757.753.50 1950-200010.045.962.53 1950-200910.806.172.73

18 Other Factors to Consider

19 African Rainfall Potential for more numerous African waves leading to an increased chance of storm formation

20 African Dust Can play a significant role in suppressing tropical cyclone development, especially in late summer

21 The Forecast

22 Summary of Forecast Points  El Nino conditions in EPAC are forecast to weaken, but uncertainty is large in how quickly that will occur  Forecast trends indicate favorable conditions in the Atlantic, mainly later in the summer  Statistics from recent climatology and analog years support a more active than average season

23 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast  12-17 named Storms (10.8 avg.)  6-9 Hurricanes (6.2 avg.)  3-4 Major Hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.7 avg.)  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA): near 140% of normal

24 CME Group Hurricane Contracts 4 Different types of Hurricane Contracts 8 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options – Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options – Based upon the accumulated CHI value for all Hurricanes that make landfall within a specific season Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2 nd Event Binary Options – Based on the CHI value of the largest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season

25 CME Group Hurricane Contract Locations Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border) Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL) Southern Atlantic Coast (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border) Northern Atlantic Coast(NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME) Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME) Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL) Florida Gold Coast(Card Sound Bridge, FL to Jupiter Inlet, FL) CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)

26 CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications Standard Contracts: Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31 Binary Contracts: Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31


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