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1 Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe 23-24 June 2005 ISPRA, Italy PROGNOSIS.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe 23-24 June 2005 ISPRA, Italy PROGNOSIS."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe 23-24 June 2005 ISPRA, Italy PROGNOSIS of GHG EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE IN BULGARIA Assoc. Prof. Hristo Vassilev, Ph.D. Energy Institute JSC

2 2 Introduction The Government will carry out a uniform national strategy focusing on sustainable development of the agricultural sector in compliance with the general agricultural EU policy, taking the specific natural circumstances in Bulgaria into account. The technological restructuring and new investment policy of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry will guarantee the food supplies and the positive agricultural trade balance. Agricultural organizations will be supported and their role - strengthened in order to achieve market protection at buying up of agricultural production. An important task in the EU accession process is to create conditions for wide implementation of ecological practices. Special attention should be paid to retaining of soil fertility through introduction of anti-erosion activities, new methods for soil cultivation, ceased practice of field burning. The baseline scenario does not envisage implementation of measures for GHG emissions reduction in the agricultural sector.

3 3 Policy instruments for Agricultural sector Legal Setting new standards on nitrogen contents in agricultural products Fiscal - Finance State Agricultural Fund (SAF): subsidies for the introduction of new methods for retaining of soil fertility SAF: low interest loans for construction and rehabilitation of irrigation systems SAPARD R&D Education and training to be financed by SAPARD

4 4 Measures with Participation of SAPARD MEASURE 01 – INVESTMENTS IN FARMS This measure includes the support of private investments, orientated to improvement of the quality and technologies for producing of agricultural products in the following sectors: Sector 01 – Milk and dairy-producing; Sector 02 – Meat and meat production; Sector 03 – Sustainable plants; Sector 04 – Vegetables, flowers, perennial ethereal-oil, cereals, oil-bearing crops, perennial medicinal plants, tobacco – high quality and cotton; Sector 05 – Eggs and egg products.

5 5 Measures-2 MEASURE 02 – IMPROVEMENT OF THE PROCESSING AND MARKETING OF AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY PRODUCTS The program is orientated to aid the production, processing and marketing of high-quality products, to meet health-sanitarian requirements and do not pollute the environment. Sector 01 – Vine-production; Sector 02 – Fruits and vegetables; Sector 03 – Milk and dairy products; Sector 04 – Meat-processing; Sector 05 – Fishery and aquaculture.

6 6 Measures-3 MEASURE 03 – Development and diversification of the economical activities, creation of opportunities for multilateral activities and alternative incomes Sector 01 – Rural-village tourism; Sector 02 – Local craftsmanship and agroindustry; Sector 03 – Woodworking and bio-fuels; Sector 04 – Sericulture; Sector 05 – Bee-keeping; Sector 06 – Horse-breeding; Sector 07 – Fishery and aquaculture; Sector 08 – Mushroom-growing; Sector 09 – Processing of ethereal-oil crops, medicinal plants and mushrooms

7 7 Measures- 4 MEASURE 05 – Producers markets and exchanges This measure represents the necessary connection between the producing sector and acceptance of these products from EC market, considering the present condition and the outlook for new niches especially on the international markets. The breeding of competitive and viable structures for marketing of fruits, vegetables, flowers, fish and fish- products means improvement of quality of the products on high prices, including environment protection.

8 8 Measures- 5 MEASURE 06 – Forestry, afforestation of agricultural lands, investments in forestry enterprises, processing and marketing of forestry products. Forestry sector in Bulgaria is traditionally connected with the development of agricultural sector. Forestry lands in Bulgaria spread on 3.91 millions ha or 34% from territory of the country ; Fulfillment of chosen felling in forest on age lesser than twenty years and its not provided for market timber; Make second class forest roads; Breeding of forest crops from luxuriated species on uncultivated agricultural and erosioned lands with tournus of fettling up to 15 years; Cultivated (supported) measures of new plantations ensuring their correct grouth and facilitating the protection of pests, foresty deseases and fires; Afforest of uncultivated agricultural and erosioned lands;

9 9 CategoryTotal average annual population (1000 head) 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Cattle total709,768417,33469,55512,67993,675612,459685,011348,56751 Pigs total1014,412341345,61543,891724,482345,23243325362543,52637,44 Sheep total1663,481823,482134,482345,482661,573284,538674158,747804990,43 Goats total739,904876,904987,4431053,891109,861409,861609,861849,761756,031627,79

10 10 CategoryTotal average annual population (head) 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Poultry total in 1000 head 20036210362303624036260473103633036360653768638069 Horses 120797121797122597123597 126837128344139980144956144900144000 Buffalo 7687 823485609548107621234514530153741543016143 Mules and Asses 146578154321158543160234161236154320152990146578142564131920

11 11 Agricultural and Forestry land Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer N (N t/ha*year) 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Vegetable2700,02772,32843,83074,53267,03402,43612,83888,03951,64050,0 Orchards4880,05036,45438,75612,45904,85965,56357,56734,46997,87320,0 Vineyards9700,0105241109111827122701319614194145881509215395

12 12 Agricultural and Forestry land Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer N (N t/ha*year) 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Potatoes800,0820,1842,9865,7880,0911,2979,61040,01053,41134,0 Tobacco320,0323,2326,1335,8349,6347,0356,9374,4368,7367,2 Industrial oils (rose) 270,0318,3366,9396,6405,0461,7525,8540,0561,3558,3

13 13 Agricultural and Forestry land Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer N (N kg/ha*year) 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Wheat 44770000461716504822840551851702541717005619353662148354698412007192602075880980 Barley 12870000131271121341248413697856141570001476860015837328169884001789281318834552 Maize 22650000235253802450716825871412274065003137934835474382380520003966521441032992 Rice 220000229760241777253806266200316712348930396000401004418000 Sunflower 26529000274128802859479429422680306409953184126033669424350182803563380836477375

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15 15 Agricultural land Annual amount of animal manure N (N kg/ha*year) 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Maize 15631616160172801633811216895616177321141991381722335722232520292325202223252029 Potatoes 1480765 15491081571889 1503546152632715572001626563,4 Vegetable 2411812244337624646442727340280605128789202965710311680331167923116803,2 Tobacco 3768750372897037504723718140377921936626303607150358031335026503381406,3 Orchards 6583370666110669683607080208724170773010347666426790004480819208229213 Vineyards 10376800109092401109105511295650114144801206065012835000130050001309000013175000

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17 17 FUTURE IMPACT OF GHG REDUCTION POLICIES AND MEASURES GHG emission reduction measures additional to the baseline scenario have been identified and form the basis of three additional emission projects projections: S1. Energy efficiency: projection including all additional policies and measures related to energy efficiency in the demand side sectors (industry, services, transport, households); S2. Renewables: projection including all additional policies and measures related of the energy efficiency scenario plus those related to renewable energy sources; S3. Energy supply: projection including all additional policies and measures related to the renewables scenario plus those related to the supply side sectors (energy production).

18 18 ANALYSIS OF THE GHG EMISSIONS FORECAST AND THE KYOTO TARGET The Figure provide an overview of the baseline projection and the three (cumulative) additional policies projections.

19 19 CONCLUSIONS- 1 The results of the latest GHG emissions inventory indicate that the Kyoto target will equal to 127.3 Mton СО 2 Eq. (i.e. 8 % reduction of emissions compared to the base year 1988 which equaled 138.4 Mton СО 2 Eq.). According to the elaborated GHG emissions forecasts with implementation of additional policies and measures presented in the Second Action Plan, the emission volumes for the First Kyoto period can be estimated. Scenario S1 of the forecast could be provisionally called a minimum scenario because it includes only the measures for emissions reduction in industry, households and services. Scenario S3 could be provisionally called a maximum scenario because it accounts for all the measures for GHG emissions reduction in industry, households, services, energy production sector and covers RES measures as well.

20 20 CONCLUSIONS- 2 The presented overall emissions levels for the period 2008- 2012, during the First Period of the Kyoto Protocol, reviewed at average annual level equal to the following mean annual GHG emissions: - Base scenario - 79.0 Mton СО2 Eq. -Minimum scenario - 75.8 Mton СО2 Eq. - Maximum scenario - 72.3 Mton СО2 Eq. The comparison of the above volumes with the Kyoto target reveals that there will remain the following free GHG emissions volumes: - Base scenario - 48.3 Mton СО2 Eq. - Minimum scenario - 51.5 Mton СО2 Eq. - Maximum scenario – 55.0 Mton СО2 Eq.

21 21 Thank you! Energy Institute 1113, Sofia 20, Fr. J. Courie Phone + 3592 9698 621

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