1.The modern tools of macroeconomic policy are: Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Aggregate Demand Curve Price Level Real domestic output (GDP R ) AD 3 AD is downward sloping: Negative relationship between PL and Output Changes in price level cause a move along the curve = C + I + G + Xn
Aggregate Demand Curve Price Level Real domestic output (GDP R ) AD 4 AD shows the relationship between aggregate PL and Real GDP or output Aggregate demand by households, businesses, government, and the rest of the world = C + I + G + Xn
Why is AD downward sloping? 1.Wealth Effect Higher price levels reduce the purchasing power of money and decreases the quantity of expenditures Lower price levels increase purchasing power and increase expenditures Example: If the balance in your bank was $50,000, but inflation erodes your purchasing power, you will likely reduce your spending. So…Price Level goes up, GDP demanded goes down. 5
2. Interest-Rate Effect When the price level increases, lenders need to charge higher interest rates to get a REAL return on their loans. Higher interest rates discourage consumer spending and business investment. WHY? Example: An increase in prices leads to an increase in the interest rate from 5% to 25%. You are less likely to take out loans to improve your business. Result…Price Level goes up, GDP demanded goes down (and Vice Versa). 6 Why is AD downward sloping?
What is Aggregate Supply? Aggregate Supply is the amount of goods and services (real GDP) that firms will produce in an economy at different price levels. The supply for everything by all firms. Aggregate Supply differentiates between short run and long-run and has two different curves. Short-run Aggregate Supply Wages and Resource Prices will not increase as price levels increase. Long-run Aggregate Supply Wages and Resource Prices will increase as price levels increase. 7
Aggregate Supply Curve Price Level Real domestic output (GDP R ) AS 8 AS is the production of all the firms in the economy
Shifters of Aggregate Demand Change in C onsumer Spending Change in I nvestment Spending Change in G overnment Spending Net E X port Spending AD = GDP = C + I + G + X Shifters of Aggregate Supply AS = I + R + A + P Change in R esource Prices Change in A ctions of the Government Change in P roductivity 9 Change in I nflationary Expectations
Shifts in Aggregate Demand Price Level Real domestic output (GDP R ) AD 10 An increase in spending shifts AD right, and decrease in spending shifts it left = C + I + G + Xn AD 1 AD 2
Shifters of Aggregate Supply 1.Change in Inflationary Expectations If an increase in AD leads people to expect higher prices in the future. This increases labor and resource costs and decreases AS. (If people expect lower prices…) 2. Change in Resource Prices Prices of Domestic and Imported Resources (Increase in price of Canadian lumber…) (Decrease in price of Chinese steel…) Supply Shocks (Negative Supply shock…) (Positive Supply shock…) 11
Shifters of Aggregate Supply 3.Change in Actions of the Government (NOT Government Spending) Taxes on Producers (Lower corporate taxes…) Subsidies for Domestic Producers (Lower subsidies for domestic farmers…) Government Regulations (EPA inspections required to operate a farm…) 4.Change in Productivity Technology (Computer virus that destroy half the computers…) (The advent of a teleportation machine…) 12
Price Level 13 AS Inflationary Gap GDP R LRAS QYQY AD 1 PL 1 Q1Q1 Output is high and unemployment is less than FE Actual GDP above potential GDP
Price Level 14 AD GDP R QYQY PL 1 Q1Q1 LRAS AS 1 Recessionary Gap Output low and unemployment is more than FE Actual GDP below potential GDP
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) The fraction of any change in disposable income that is consumed. MPC= Change in Consumption Change in Disposable Income MPC = ΔC / ΔDI
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS) The fraction of any change in disposable income that is saved. MPS= Change in Savings Change in Disposable Income MPS = ΔS / ΔDI
The limiting factor is savings. For every additional dollar spent a portion of it will be saved (the MPS). The multiplier is the reciprocal of the MPS or 1/MPS. The larger the MPC (the smaller the MPS) the larger the multiplier will be.
Tax Multiplier (note: it’s negative because tax increases reduce spending) - MPC / 1-MPC or - MPC / MPS If there is a tax-CUT, then the multiplier is +, because there is now more money in the circular flow
Government Spending during a recession or depression and can improve an economy by injecting money into households. Recessions are inevitable. Many government programs like Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment, and Welfare were begun as Keynesian economic stimulus. Aggregate Demand must be stimulated in order to recover from a recession.
Free Markets will lead to full employment Keynesian Economics causes price bubbles, (inflation.) When the bubbles break, a recession (hangover) incurs. The booms and busts of the business cycle are natural and are self-correcting. Competition is the invisible hand Government should be limited to preventing monopolies or unions
A non-political agency can regulate banks, the money supply, and interest rates. It will be especially effective when painful and unpopular decisions need to be made and will make them in a timely manner. This can be the central banking system. During recessions, impact the overall investment demand through tools that increase the incentive to borrow. This will be lower interest rates. During inflation, impact the overall investment demand through tools that decrease the incentive to borrow. This will be higher interest rates.