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Macroeconomic overview Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European and Bank and Country Conference 14-16 November 2006, Budapest.

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Presentation on theme: "Macroeconomic overview Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European and Bank and Country Conference 14-16 November 2006, Budapest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Macroeconomic overview Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European and Bank and Country Conference 14-16 November 2006, Budapest

2 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Belarus Area: 207,600 sq. km Capital: Minsk Population: 10,293,011 (July 2006 est.) Labour force: 4.3 million (31 December 2005) Society: Belarusian 81.2%, Russian 11.4%, Polish 3.9%, Ukrainian 2.4%, other 1.1% (1999 census) Religion: 80% Eastern Orthodox

3 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest A little bit of history seven decades as a constituent republic of the USSR attained its independence in 1991 Belarus and Russia signed a treaty on a two-state union on 8 December 1999 in July 1994 first president: Alexander LUKASHENKO

4 Source: Ministry of Statistics the Republic of Belarus; National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, Raiffeisen Research 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Macroeconomic indicators

5 Source: Ministry of Statistics the Republic of Belarus; National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, Raiffeisen Research 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Russia versus Belarus in terms of Real GDP

6 Banking system Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European and Bank and Country Conference 14-16 November 2006, Budapest

7 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Number of Banks’ branches in the Republic of Belarus and organisational units thereof 4 state banks (Belarusbank, Belagroprombank, Belinvestbank, Belpromstroibank) + 26 banks with foreign capital

8 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Ratio of banking sector assets and capital to GDP

9 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of Assets as of 01. 01. 2006 %

10 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of Credits by Form of Client’s Activities In Q3-2006 the share of Loans to households increased to 28.5 %.

11 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of Credits by Maturities

12 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Concentration

13 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Top-10 Banks’ Total Assets Banks Total Assets in BYR'mln as of 01.10.2006 Belarusbank10,941,100.4 Belagroprombank5,017,684.3 Priorbank (Raiffeisen International)2,417,465.2 Belpromstroibank2,023,810.0 Belinvestbank1,858,908.3 Belvnesheconombank727,337.2 Slavneftebank489,380.8 Belgazprombank434,031.1 Foreign Bank Moskva-Minsk285,254.6 International Trade and Investment Bank (ITI Bank)277,113.8

14 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Market share of Top-5 Banks in terms of Total Assets in 2005 Source: CNB, Raiffeisen Research

15 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Asset quality %

16 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of Liabilities as of 01. 01. 2006 %

17 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Top-10 Banks’ Total Liabilities Banks Liabilities in BYR'mln as of 01.10.2006 Belarusbank9,401,377.4 Belagroprombank3,676,396.8 Priorbank (Raiffeisen International)2,072,229.6 Belpromstroibank1,774,800.1 Belinvestbank1,649,505.4 Belvnesheconombank642,150.0 Slavneftebank434,610.5 Belgazprombank392,539.9 Foreign Bank Moskva-Minsk220,785.7 International Trade and Investment Bank (ITI Bank)234,732.2

18 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of the Banking System Deposits by Form of Clients’ Ownership

19 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of Deposits by Maturities

20 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Equity

21 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Top-10 Banks’ Total Capital Banks Capital in BYR'mln as of 01.10.2006 Belarusbank1,539,723.0 Belagroprombank1,341,287.5 Priorbank (Raiffeisen International)345,235.6 Belpromstroibank249,009.9 Belinvestbank209,402.9 Belvnesheconombank85,187.2 Slavneftebank54,770.3 Belgazprombank41,491.2 Foreign Bank Moskva-Minsk64,468.9 International Trade and Investment Bank (ITI Bank)42,381.6

22 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Capital adequacy I. %

23 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Capital adequacy II. % State banks: Belarusbank, Belagroprombank, Belinvestbank, Belpromstroibank

24 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Structure of Banks’ Income and Expenses For comparison: BYR 296.4 bln Economic Profit in Q3-2006.

25 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Income structure of the banking system

26 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Top-10 Banks’ Profit Banks Profit/Loss in BYR'mln as of 01.10.2006 Belarusbank82,821.5 Belagroprombank51,855.4 Priorbank (Raiffeisen International)52,223.5 Belpromstroibank33,188.2 Belinvestbank26,132.8 Belvnesheconombank6,522.5 Slavneftebank11,040.2 Belgazprombank6,140.5 Foreign Bank Moskva-Minsk11,167.9 International Trade and Investment Bank (ITI Bank)3,465.0

27 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Profitability ratios I.

28 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Profitability ratios II. %

29 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Banks’ rankings Banks Ranking in terms of TA Ranking in terms of Liabilities Ranking in terms of Capital Ranking in terms of Profit/Loss Belarusbank1. Belagroprombank2. 3. Priorbank (Raiffeisen International)3. 2. Belpromstroibank4. Belinvestbank5. Belvnesheconombank6. 8. Slavneftebank7. 8.7. Belgazprombank8. 10.9. Foreign Bank Moskva-Minsk9.10.7.6. International Trade and Investment Bank (ITI Bank)10.9. 10.

30 Source: NBB President’s September 2006 Report to President Lukashenko 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest USD 145 M. foreign funding in H1-2006 state guarantee on USD 8 M. (on USD 32 M. in 2005) Foreign Ownership (Q3-2006) current quota: 20 % (this shall be abolished accessing WTO) current share: 9.3 % (in 26 out of 30 commercial banks) foreign banks are not allowed to open branch offices Loans (8-month Figures) Total Loans: BYR 18.8 Trillion (32 % increase) Retail Loans increased by 100 % Deposits (8-month Figures) Total: BYR 25.6 Trillion (24.9 % increase) Private individuals: BYR 7.3 Trillion Capital (1 October 2006) Share capital: BYR 4.27 Trillion (6.3 % increase) Capital adequacy ratio: 22 % Recent Developments I.

31 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest Recent Developments II. The new Banking Code (a uniform license for banking operations) replacing the 6 existing licenses General Internal Master Individual licenses Licenses for accepting deposits from natural persons Licenses for transaction involving precious metals and precious stones allowing banks to carry out operations with foreign currency outside the country (earlier 1-year delay was required) NBB revoked Djem-bank’s general and blanket licenses and the license to take individual deposits (Source: TASS Belarus Newswire)

32 Outlook Strengths –State support to large banks expected Opportunities –Good growth potential in a largely under-banked country Weaknesses –Low penetration –Low growth rates Threats –Economic downturn in Russia –State intervention 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest

33 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest

34 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest List of Banks under Bankruptcy or Liquidation as of 02.11.2006 NameDate of Registration 1. Closed Joint–Stock Company "BELKOMBANK"07.05.1991 2. Open Joint–Stock Company "BELORUSSKIY BIRZHEVOY BANK"07.10.1992 3. Open Join–Stock Company Joint–Stock Commercial Bank "RATON"26.09.2003

35 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest List of Reorganised Banks as of 02.11.2006, I. Name Date of Registration Form of Reorganization Successor Bank, Reorganization Date 1. CB "DVINA"27.08.1991takeoverJSCB "VITCOMBANK", 22.03.1994 2. JSCB "VITCOMBANK"20.05.1991takeover OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK", 27.06.1995 3. CB "GRODNOCOMBANK"30.05.1991merger OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK", 01.09.1992 4. CB "MINSKBUSINESSBANK" 01.07.1991merger OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK", 01.09.1992 5. CB "MOGOBANK"08.07.1991merger OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK", 01.09.1992 6. CB "ZHILCOMBANK"30.07.1991merger OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK", 01.09.1992 7. CB "GOMELSOTSBANK"22.05.1991takeover OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK", 09.08.1993 8. CB "KOMMERTSIA–BANK"29.03.1991takeover "Priorbank" Joint stock company, 09.06.1993 9. CB "VESTBANK"31.05.1991takeover "Priorbank" Joint stock company, 05.10.1995 10. JSCB "BELARUSBANK"30.07.1991merger Joint Stock Company "Savings Bank "Belarusbank", 27.10.1995 11. BSSR Savings Bank20.08.1991merger Joint Stock Company "Savings Bank "Belarusbank", 27.10.1995

36 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus 15 th BACEE Central and East European Bank and Country Conference 14 - 16 November 2006, Budapest List of Reorganised Banks as of 02.11.2006, II. NameDate of RegistrationForm of ReorganizationSuccessor Bank, Reorganization Date 12. JSCB "BELSVYAZBANK"03.09.1991takeover Joint Stock Company "Savings Bank "Belarusbank", 07.10.1996 13. JSCB "BELZHELDORBANK"09.11.1994takeover Joint Stock Company "Savings Bank "Belarusbank", 07.10.1996 14. JSCB "BRESTCOMBANK"05.04.1991takeover Closed Joint–Stock Company "BELKOMBANK", 14.11.1996 15. JSCB "AMKODORBANK"13.09.1994takeover Open Joint–Stock Company "BELVNESHECONOMBANK", 03.01.1996 16. OJSC "BELCOOPBANK"20.02.1992takeover Open Joint–Stock Company "BELVNESHECONOMBANK", 01.03.2001 17. JSCB "BELORUSSKIY MEDITSINKIY BANK" 04.05.1995takeover Joint Stock Bank of Reconversion and Development, 30.09.1996 18. OJSC "BELBUSINESSBANK"01.09.1992merger "Belarussian bank of development and reconstruction "Belinvestbank" Joint–Stock Company, 03.09.2001 19. OJSC "BELORUSSKIY BANK RAZVITIYA" 05.11.1993merger "Belarussian bank of development and reconstruction "Belinvestbank" Joint–Stock Company, 03.09.2001 20. Joint Stock Company "MINSKCOMPLEXBANK" 21.02.1994takeover Joint Stock Company "Savings Bank "Belarusbank", 14.07.2005 21. Closed Joint–Stock Company "TORGOVO–PROMYSHELNNY BANK" 01.04.1994takeover Open Joint–Stock Company "TECHNOBANK", 20.06.2003


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