1. The EU Maritime Policy and adaptation to climate change Martin FERNANDEZ DIEZ-PICAZO Unit Arctic and Atlantic Oceans and Outermost Regions DG for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries -European Commission Vulnerability and disasters risks mapping workshop. 2 July 2009

2. Index Study on Economics Climate Change adaptation in EU coastal areas Integrated Maritime Policy White Paper on adaptation Conclusions

3. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 3 EU Integrated Maritime Policy: main objectives Enabling economic development without compromising the marine environment Making full use of knowledge and innovation in maritime affairs Delivering high quality of life in coastal regions Raising the visibility of maritime affairs A maritime leadership role for Europe in the world

4. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 4 The White Paper on Adapting to climate change: towards a European framework for action adopted last 01.04.09 White Paper gives special attention to coastal and marine environments. Annex: Policy Paper on water, marine and coastal issues Commitment of the White Paper in this context is to take into account adaptation in coastal and marine areas in the framework of the Integrated Maritime Policy, in the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and in the reform of the CFP. White Paper Climate Change Adaptation

5. Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas 5 DG MARE commissioned study which: Assesses coastal protection policies and climate change adaptation plans and practices in EU coastal areas; Compiles most recent information about the theoretical cost estimated by models; Provides extensive empirical information about past, present and foreseen expenditures on coastal protection and adaptation; Compares theoretical costs against real expenditures and identifies disparities amongst regions (on i.e. vulnerability and costs of adaptation), sources of uncertainty, etc Study on the Economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas (2009)

6. 6 Main climate risks and possible adaptation measures Vulnerability of the coast: –100.000 km of coastline –Coastal economic assets: 500 – 1000 billion. –35% of GDP (22 EU coastal MS ) –1/3 EU population Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas Main climate change impacts in coastal zones: flooding, erosion, saline intrusion, freshwater shortage, and loss of eco-systems Adaptation measures discussed in relation to SLR, flooding and erosion: mainly categorised as protect, accommodate and retreat.

7. 7 Theoretical Analysis: Theoretical cost of adaptation To date, studies and reports focus primarily on Sea Level Rise (SLR) Scientific literature estimates the annual adaptation cost to protect Europes coastal zones against SLR: $ 0.2 billion and 5.4 billion (per year) PESETA study cost of inaction: 6 billion/y cost of adaptation: 0.8 billion/y residual costs of 1.2 billion/y net-benefit of adaptation: 4 billion/y Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

8. 8 Empirical analysis: Actual expenditure of coastal protection Europes total coastal protection expenditure (1998-2015): 15.8 billion Total average coastal protection expenditure (1998-2015): 0.88 billion / year Close to 85% of total coastal protection expenditure is borne by 5 countries (IT, NL, DE, UK, ES) Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

9. 9 Empirical analysis: Actual expenditure of coastal protection Normal coastal protection and climate adaptation expenditure steadily increases over time Compared to 1998 coastal protection and climate change adaptation expenditure has increased for most member states, but future expenditure will remain stable compared to todays situation The total coastal protection expenditure amounted to 1.07 billion in 2008 Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

10. 10 More than 60% of the normal coastal protection expenditure is dedicated to the North Sea Empirical analysis: Actual expenditure of coastal protection Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

11. 11 2.7 8.1 127.5 1.4 10.5 117.6 1 647 316 3 421 206 95 1 712 131 936 462 89 288 15.4 1.6 18 267 353 Europes total expenditure 10.47 billion 237 Outermost regions Majority of the normal coastal protection expenditure is borne by public funds: 63 % national 32 % regional 4 % EU 1 % private Empirical analysis: Actual expenditure of coastal protection Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

12. 12 Member states spend close to 3.7 per inhabitant per year in the 50 km coastal zone on coastal protection - North Sea countries, the Netherlands and Germany: 15-20/person - Southern Europe (Spain, Italy, Greece, France and Portugal) is below the EU average. - Baltic area, coastal protection investments are generally low, in line with the population at risk. On average 0.02% of coastal GDP is spent on normal coastal protection and adaptation - Germany, the Netherlands and Malta dedicate a higher % of GDP to protect and adapt their shorelines Empirical analysis: Actual expenditure of coastal protection Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

13. 13 Empirical analysis: Comparison costs-expenditure Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

14. Conclusions for the six marine basins of the EU 14 - Overall vulnerability low, most impact expected for marine species - Most countries are developing a climate change adaptation strategy in which coastal zones are briefly discussed - Climate change scenarios are not yet widespread in practice - Focus is on accommodation and retreat measures - Total expenditure (1998-2015): 0.7 billion - Annual expenditure: 38 million - Scientific estimate annual expenditure: 81-128 million Baltic Sea Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

15. 15 Conclusions per marine basin - Significant SLR expectation, storm surges and many low-lying areas - Climate change is integrated in dedicated coastal plans - Especially NL and UK very active in climate change adaptation - Primarily hard and soft protective measures - Total expenditure (1998-2015): 7.6 billion - Annual expenditure: 399 million - Scientific estimate annual expenditure: 208-369 million North Sea Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

16. Conclusions per marine basin 16 - Flooding main climate change risk - Climate change is integrated in dedicated coastal plans - Some countries implement protective measures, other countries combine protect and accommodate - Total expenditure (1998-2015): 1.2 billion - Annual expenditure: 67 million - Scientific estimate annual expenditure: 82-148 million Atlantic Ocean Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

17. Conclusions per marine basin 17 - Freshwater shortage most significant problem ( 0.9 billion in 2008) - With the exception of Spain, Mediterranean countries are not advanced in climate change adaptation; climate change scenarios are not accounted for in operating actions (exception Spain, Mose-project IT) - Mostly rely on ad-hoc hard defences - Total expenditure (1998-2015): 5.8 billion - Annual expenditure: 89 million - Scientific estimate annual expenditure: 110-199 million Mediterranean Sea Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

18. Conclusions per marine basin 18 - Erosion main climate change risk at present - Climate plans focus mainly on mitigation - SLR scenarios are not taken into account - Primarily ad-hoc hard coastal defences - Total expenditure (1998-2015): 0.3 billion - Annual expenditure: 18.4 million - Scientific estimate annual expenditure: 7.4-9.5 million Black Sea Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

19. 19 Conclusions per marine basin - Vulnerable to a variety of extreme weather events - Outermost regions are not incorporated systematically in climate change or coastal protection plans of the mainland (except for Spain) - Total expenditure (1998-2015): 0.2 billion - Annual expenditure: 13.18 million - Scientific estimate annual expenditure: 1.4-2.1 million Outermost regions Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

20. 20 Publication of results: The Study includes Analysis and detailed information Per marine basin, including outermost regions Per country: Vulnerability to climate change Key actors Adaptation plans and practices Past, present and foreseen expenditures by competent authorities Comprehensive library (600 sources of information) More info: http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html Integrated maritime policy for the EU Study on climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas

21. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 21 Publication of results: The Study includes Analysis and detailed information country per country. More info: http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html

22. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 22

23. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 23

24. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 24

25. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 25 Coastal zones are highly vulnerable. Climate change adaptation has come to the agenda in almost all member states, yet, is at different stages. EU initiatives: White Paper on adaptation; MSFD; Integrated Maritime Policy. EU framework for a EU adaptation strategy Integrated Maritime Policy: –Integrated approach at a sea basin level + clear cross-border dimension –Promoting the exchange of expertise and knowledge –Regulation only as a last resort (MS are taking action). –Cross-cutting tools: Maritime Spatial Planning and Marine Knowledge (reduction of uncertainty) Conclusions

26. An Ocean of Opportunity: An integrated maritime policy for the EU 26 http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs Thank you very much. For more information: