1. National programme under NEC Directive : The French experience Improving Air Quality in the enlarged EU : Workshop on Plans and Programmes of Air Quality and National Emission Ceilings Directives Brussels – 1&2 September 2004 Marc RICO – Ministry of Ecology & Sustainable Development Bénédicte OUDART - CITEPA

2. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and updating of the national plan 6. Conclusion

3. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan 6. Conclusion

4. SO 2 emissions since 1960

5. NOx emissions since 1960

6. VOC emissions since 1988

7. NH 3 emissions since 1980

8. French targets 1990 emissions (Gothenburg Protocol data) 1990 emissions (2003 inventory data) 2002 emissions NEC directive ceilings Emission reduction /2002 SO 2 1 269 kt1 326 kt537 kt375 kt- 30% NOx1 882 kt1 897 kt1 352 kt810 kt- 40% COV2 957 kt2 499 kt1 542 kt1 050 kt- 32% NH 3 814 kt779 kt778 kt780 kt~0%

9. National Climate Change Plan This plan has been adopted in 2000 List of measures to comply with Kyoto protocol (stabilisation of emissions in 2010/1990) emission projections are based on the PNLCC energy scenario the review of the measures of the 2000 climate change plan is in progress The NEC programme must be consistent with the climate change plan

10. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and up-date of the national plan 6. Conclusion

11. 4 Ministries : Environment Industry / Energy Transport / Households Agriculture The French Agency for Environment and Energy Management (ADEME) Industry representatives Associations for Environmental protection Setting-up of the Transboundary Air Pollution Forum (about 50 members from Administration and Industry + technical experts ) The French organisation to draw up the national plan Many stakeholders involved :

12. The French organisation to draw up the national plan Work in 2 steps : 1st step : technical study (OPTINEC) (January 2001 – July 2002) - to estimate emission projections for 2010 - to identify technical measures to reduce emissions - to identify possible financial instruments to reduce emissions Steering group to validate the scenario to use as a basis for emission projections and to select possible additional measures to incorporate into the national plan 2nd step : drawing up and adopting the national plan (July 2002 – July 2003) - validation of technical and political options to reduce emissions - drafting the national plan - consultation committees (administration, industry, NGOs, National Council for Classified Installations (CSIC) and National Air Council (CNA) - official adoption by the Government (8 July 2003)

13. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan 6. Conclusion

14. OPTINEC STUDY INVESTIGATED SCENARIOS 4 energy scenarios - S1 scenario – market scenario (1998) - S3 scenario – environmental scenario (1998) - business as usual scenario (1999) - PNLCC scenario (climate change plan scenario) (2000) 2 agricultural scenarios - business as usual scenario (trends) - MAGALI scenario (based on an economic model) (2000) 4 scenarios to evaluate uncertainties on activity data OPTINEC SCENARIO selected scenario for the NEC programme : PNLCC scenario for energy MAGALI scenario for agriculture Previsions become out of date quickly: data have thus been updated for electricity production, refineries and transport Available at : http://www.citepa.org/publications/etudes_citepa.htm http://www.ineris.fr/recherches/download/etude_eco.pdf

15. OPTINEC STUDY OPTINEC SCENARIO – ECONOMIC HYPOTHESES GDP growth : 2.3% (1997 – 2010) Oil price :25 $/barrel Gas price :3.3 $/Mbtu Coal price :40-50 $/t Population growth : +0.5% 1995-2005 +0.4% 2005-2010

16. OPTINEC STUDY LIST OF DIRECTIVES AND NATIONAL REGULATIONS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT LCP directive (2001/80/CE) Sulphur content of fuels directive (99/32/CE) Quality of petrol and diesel fuels directive (98/69/CE) Incineration of waste directive (2000/76/CE) HC emission from petrol distribution (stage I & stage II directives) Limitation of VOC from organic solvents directive (99/13/EC) EURO standards I-V for vehicle emissions (98/69/CE) EU directives National regulations regulations on classified installations (a part of IPPC directive) regulation on glass industry regulation on cement industry regulation on small combustion installations (2-20 MW) regulation on turbines and stationary combustion installations

17. OPTINEC STUDY EVALUATION OF UNCERTAINTIES SO 2 emissions NO x emissions VOC emissions NH 3 emissions Uncertainties 15%45%30%80% Emission uncertainties include : - uncertainties on activity data based on different investigated scenarios - uncertainties on emission factors OPTINEC/RAINS EMISSION COMPARISON (REF SCENARIOS) Emissions (kt) SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 OPTINEC REF 461988954857 IIASA REF4488581223777

18. OPTINEC STUDY RESULTS FOR SO2 2010 emissions : 461 kt NEC ceiling : 375 kt SO 2 Emissions - 2010Emissions (kt) share (%) Refineries14030 Industrial combustion12928 Power plants9721 Domestic sector317 District heating204 Required reduction 86 kt (19%) to meet the ceiling

19. Measures established in the Plan ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR SO 2 INDUSTRY - stricter ELVs for refineries (bubble concept) - stricter ELVs for larger CPs (>500 MW) (more stringent than LCPD) - reduction in SO 2 emissions in various industrial processes (glass, cement, iron & steel industry) Measures implemented under IPPC Directive and LCP Directive TRANSPORT AND OTHER MOBILE SOURCES - reduction in sulphur content of petrol and diesel to 10 ppm (road transport) - use of diesel instead of light fuel-oil for off-road engines Expected reduction : about 100 kt

20. OPTINEC STUDY RESULTS FOR NOx 2010 emissions : 988 kt NEC ceiling : 810 kt NOx Emissions - 2010Emissions (kt) share (%) Road transport39040 Other mobile sources24325 Industrial combustion13514 Domestic sector788 Power plants758 Required reduction 178 kt (18%) to meet the ceiling

21. ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR NOx INDUSTRY - stricter ELVs for refineries (bubble concept) - stricter ELVs for larger CPs (>500 MW) (more stringent than LCPD) - reduction in NOx emissions in various industrial processes (glass, cement, iron & steel industry) - reduction in emissions from small combustion installations (20-50 MW) Measures implemented under IPPC Directive and LCP Directive RESIDENTIAL / COMMERCIAL / INSTITUTIONAL - promotion of low-NOx boilers (tax incentive) - reduction in energy consumption in existing buildings TRANSPORT AND OTHER MOBILE SOURCES - reduction in sulphur content of petrol and diesel to 10 ppm (road transport) - development of non-road alternative transport modes - adjusting port and airport charges to take emission levels into account - incentives to renew existing stock of non-road mobile machinery Expected reduction : about 150 kt Measures established in the Plan

22. OPTINEC STUDY RESULTS FOR VOC 2010 emissions : 954 kt NEC ceiling : 1050 kt VOC Emissions - 2010Emissions (kt) share (%) Solvent use32033 Domestic sector (wood combustion)21122 Other mobile sources12914 Road transport9810 Industrial processes849 Ceiling complied with

23. ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR VOCs INDUSTRY - reduction in non point source emissions (refineries and chemical industry) - measures to encourage the adoption of VOC emission reduction scheme - development of the use of products with low solvent content RESIDENTIAL / COMMERCIAL / INSTITUTIONAL - development of the use of products with low solvent content - development of measures to encourage combustion of wood in suitable conditions. Measures established in the Plan

24. OPTINEC STUDY RESULTS FOR NH 3 2010 emissions : 857 kt NEC ceiling : 780 kt NH 3 Emissions - 2010Emissions (kt) share (%) Animal manure66878 Use of fertilizers14817 Required reduction 77 kt (9%) to meet the ceiling

25. ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR NH 3 AGRICULTURE - adapting cattle feed - reducing emissions of slurry stocks - improving slurry spreading methods - taking NH 3 emissions into account in public policies - informing farmers Expected reduction : about 60 kt Measures established in the Plan

26. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan 6. Conclusion

27. Contents of the French programme Introduction Emission projections for 2010 sectoral breakdown uncertainties List of EU directives and national regulations taken into account Quantification of emission reductions to comply with ceilings List of implementing measures to comply with ceilings Assessment and updating of the national plan Available at : http://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/PREPA_final_1.pdf

28. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan 6. Conclusion

29. Assessment and updating of the national plan Assessment Annual assessment of progress in emission reductions Annual presentation of progress to members of National Air Council Updating Updating of national plan at the latest in 2006 including : - updating of emission projections - assessment of implementation of measures, updating list of measures - the results of a study on faisability of NOx tradable permits or NOx tax.

30. CONTENTS 1. The French context 2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan 3. Technical study : OPTINEC - scenarios - regulations taken into account - uncertainties - results 4. Contents of the national plan 5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan 6. Conclusion

31. Conclusion COMMENTS RELATIVE TO PLAN DRAWING UP the plan drawing up has enabled the different stakeholders to become aware of the issues at stake and to take action to implement the national Plan high level of uncertainties for emission projections : since 2000 activity levels have significantly changed for some sectors, that increases the difficulty to draw up the Plan short timescale to draw up the plan

32. Conclusion COMMENTS RELATIVE TO MEASURES TO IMPLEMENT short timescale to implement the measures : -structural measures requiring more time to implement, -certain measures (eg low NOx burners in the domestic sector, new EURO standards for vehicle emissions) depend on the rate at which the existing stock is renewed changes in emission factors over time (eg. NOx emission factor for heavy duty vehicles) but the ceilings are absolute values difficulties in getting measures that go beyond the EU directives accepted

33. Conclusion For some sectors, high efficiency of measures implemented at European level -VOC reduction: the directive relative to the limitation of organic solvents in certain paints and vehicle refinishing products (2004/42/CE) is an example of these high efficiency and cost-effective measures -NOx reduction (road and non-road transport) : eg. Implementation of port and airport charges to take emission levels into account Proposals for the CAFÉ programme -all MS feedbacks concerning NEC plans must be taken into account in the CAFÉ programme - NOx reduction ceilings will be difficult to achieve for several MS and the air quality limit value for NO 2 will probably not be complied with in all zones : postpone 2010 deadline to 2015 ?